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World Cup point distribution

Posted on 2013-08-09 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on World Cup point distribution

Last season was quite unusual. Martin Fourcade and Tora Berger won the overall titles with record scores and record gaps to second place. How do the 2012–13 World Cup points compare to previous years and how has the point distribution developed since 2001–02?
Note: The World Cup points system was changed after 2007–08 (50, 46, 43, … → 60, 54, 48, …). Plus several minor changes in the number of dropped worst results.

The chart above shows how much of the possible World Cup points (last year: 1440p = 60p*24, 2 dropped scores) the season’s top 6 have won. Fourcade set a new record, claiming 1248 points (86.7 %), surpassing Raphael Poiree‘s previous mark, who had won 81.3 % of all possible points in 2003–04. Fourcade’s gap to second place was also unprecedented last year: 421 points, or 50.1 % more than Emil Hegle Svendsen.

Naturally, the 2008–09 season brought some big changes: with 10 more athletes awarded World Cup points, the share of points won by the men’s top 30 or top 40 decreased by roughly 10 % in one year. In general, the top athletes win slightly less points today than they did in 2001–02. The biggest differences in the share of won points occurred for the season’s top 10 (43.4 % → 32.3 %, -11.1 %) and top 20 (65.5 % →55.6 %, -9.9 %).

Tora Berger set a new record last season as well, winning 85.7 % of all points available. She beat Magdalena Neuner‘s record (84.4 %) from one year earlier. There are huge differences between the last two seasons though: 2011–12 was a hard fought battle between four (!) athletes who won at least 70 % of the max points, in 2012–13 second-placed Darya Domracheva only claimed 64 %. 

The points for the top female athletes didn’t decline as much as for the men. In 2001–02 the top 10 won 44.4 % of all points, in 2012–13 it was 37.1 % (-7.3 %). The top women win a slightly bigger share of all World Cup points (3-5 %), indicating weaker competition from lower ranked athletes. 

Generally, World Cup points are shared more broadly today compared to 12 years ago, which might point to more depth in World Cup fields. However, at least part of that is due to the changed points system. The 2012–13 season was extremely lopsided (for men and women alike); hopefully not the start of a trend but only a one-time anomaly.

Posted in Long-term trends | Tagged results

How to get on the podium in biathlon

Posted on 2013-07-27 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on How to get on the podium in biathlon

Last October, I looked at what kind of shooting and skiing results it usually takes to get on the podium in biathlon World Cup races, both overall and for each of the four disciplines (see podium ingredients for men and women). Now I was curious if those trends had changed at all during the last 12 years. Below, I split the results into four 3-season periods (2001–04. 2004–07, 2007–10, 2010–13, between 73-80 races each) to examine that a bit more closely. 

Note: The tables and charts show percentages for World Cup podium finishers for the respective time periods, i.e. how often first, second and third place had a certain number of shooting penalties or a specific course time rank.

The first thing you notice is how stable the charts are, unsurprisingly I suppose (the rules haven’t changed, the World Cup programme is almost the same). For the men, the skiing numbers hardly changed at all, 54.3 % of all podium finishers set a top 5 course time during 2010–13, a decade earlier it was 54.8 %;  the top 10 course time rate is virtually identical as well (76.5 % vs. 76.7 %). 


What has changed however are the shooting results. For 2001–04, 58.9 % of all podium athletes had 0 or 1 shooting errors. That percentage increased considerably until 2010–13: 65.8 % → 65.8 % → 71.8 %. It seems good shooting is more important than ever in men’s biathlon.

Shooting penaltiesSki rank
Men01234> 4123Top3 Top5 Top10 > 10
2001–04    29.729.2 21.5 10.04.1 5.5 14.6 10.0 11.9 36.554.876.723.3
2004–0733.332.520.8102.90.413.115.611.440.157.479.720.3
2007–1031.634.218.212.62.21.311.712.69.533.850.671.428.6
2010–1332.539.319.76.81.30.417.510.712.440.654.376.523
Shooting penalties / Ski ranks for all Podium finishers (non-team races) in % | Men

In general, the percentages for the women are quite similar, maybe more similar than you would expect (considering men and women compete on different courses). Unlike for the men, the percentage of great shooting for female podium finishers did not increase: during 2001–04 we had 61.2 % with 0 or 1 penalties, 60.3 % for 2010–13.

However, fast skiing is getting more important for the women. The percentage of female athletes with top 5 (50.2 % → 52.9 % → 53.2 % → 62.4 %) or top 10 course times (76.7 % → 78.3 % → 81.8 % → 88.0 %) among all podium athletes increased a lot in the last 12 years.

ShootingpenaltiesSkirank
Men01234> 4123   Top3     Top5   Top10   > 10
2001–04    29.729.2  21.5  10.0 4.1 5.5 14.6  10.0 11.9 36.554.876.723.3
2004–0733.332.520.8102.90.413.115.611.440.157.479.720.3
2007–1031.634.218.212.62.21.311.712.69.533.850.671.428.6
2010–1332.539.319.76.81.30.417.510.712.440.654.376.523.5
Shooting penalties / Ski ranks for all Podium finishers (non-team races) in % | Women

It seems as if the men’s and women’s competition has developed in slightly different directions. For the men, the importance of good shooting is more significant today than it was 10-12 years ago, while top ski speed has become even more important today on the women’s side.

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged results

Top 10 athletes in the last 20 years

Posted on 2012-07-22 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Top 10 athletes in the last 20 years

I came across this interesting graphic on the website of the BBC, showing the composition of the Tour de France top 10 over the decades. Here is what the same graphic looks like for Biathlon World Cup results over the last 20 years.

For the men, Germany (54) had most top ten finishers since 1992–93, followed by Norway (44), Russia (38) and France (20). In total, 11 countries had top 10 athletes in the last 20 years. Most World Cup winners came from Norway (9), France (5) and Germany (4).

Germany also leads the women’s side with 65 top 10 spots since 1992–93. Interestingly France (31) comes second ahead of Russia (28), with Sweden in fourth (19). Athletes from 15 different countries claimed a top 10 finish. Most winners came from Sweden (7) and Germany (6).


It’s maybe surprising that more countries claimed a top 10 spot on the women’s side. Overall, the three most successful nations at Winter Olympics, Germany, Russia, Norway, also lead in biathlon. Just like ski jumping, the United States is yet to leave any mark on biathlon, having much more success in other traditional winter sports like alpine, cross-country, nordic combined or bobsleigh.

Posted in Long-term trends | Tagged results

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