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Ski speed comparison – 2019–20 vs. 2020–21

Posted on 2021-03-23 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Ski speed comparison – 2019–20 vs. 2020–21

Skiing was once again by far the most important factor to determine an athlete’s eventual World Cup rank. Not only did the two outright fastest skiers, Johannes Thingnes Bø and Tiril Eckhoff win the overall title, but out of the ten fastest skiers (per gender), eight made the World Cup top 10 on the men’s side, six on the women’s side. Let’s look at who managed to improve and whose ski speed declined season-to-season.

You can check out full season statistics for all World Cup athletes here:

  • Ski speed: Men | Women
  • Shooting percentage: Men | Women
  • Shooting Times: Men | Women

For patrons, the comparisons page allows you to compare all shooting and skiing stats on your own, not only season-to-season, but also by trimester.


Note: Only athletes with at least 4 non-team races last season and 15 non-team races this winter are included in the tables. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per season).


Men

Tuomas Harjula and Jeremy Finello were the most improved skiers this season, both roughly 3.5% faster compared to 2019–20. Erik Lesser had an injury-affected winter last year and bounced back to his previous level. Johannes Kühn, the fourth-fastest skier last season, never managed recover from a pre-season injury and ended the season with the biggest decline among regular starters.

Johannes Thingnes Bø was not as dominating as many expected after the retirement of Martin Fourcade, however, his ski speed was not to blame: he set the top ski time in 20 out of 26 races. Sturla Holm Lægreid improved a lot, albeit he only appeared in four races last winter. Percentage-wise Quentin Fillon Maillet had a big decline in his skiing performances, even though his course times ranks were only 1.9 positions lower and he he finished the season third overall. Émilien Jacquelin‘s average was heavily influenced by the WCHs mass start (+12.1%); without that one race his speed would have been roughly 0.5% better.

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1HarjulaTuomasFIN
1760.3-27.7+5.05-3.64
2FinelloJeremySUI
1924.3-34.4+0.84-3.47
3KomatzDavidAUT
2246.4-36.6+3.40-3.32
4LesserErikGER
2320.6-28.6+0.50-3.07
5PonsiluomaMartinSWE
268.8-18.3-1.16-2.68
6DovzanMihaSLO
2060.4-20.3+5.26-2.47
7SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2612.0-16.7-0.71-2.17
8LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
2611.2-12.3-0.79-2.16
9LatypovEduardRUS
2517.0-19.0+0.14-2.10
10SmolskiAntonBLR
2225.7-17.0+1.03-1.71
11BocharnikovSergeyBLR
2235.0-14.2+2.09-1.59
12BrownJakeUSA
1731.3-16.0+1.72-1.46
13SimaMichalSVK
1671.1-14.4+6.06-1.31
14GowChristianCAN
2150.1-11.6+3.50-1.24
15HoferLukasITA
269.4-6.3-1.04-1.15
16LangerThierryBEL
1854.6-5.5+4.08-1.03
17DombrovskiKarolLTU
1762.6-7.7+4.92-1.00
18FakJakovSLO
2622.7-7.3+0.70-0.99
19DaleJohannesNOR
265.5-4.4-2.00-0.82
20NelinJesperSWE
2316.2-8.4+0.16-0.79
21StvrteckyJakubCZE
1931.8-6.0+1.61-0.77
22VarabeiMaksimBLR
2041.4-10.3+3.12-0.74
23DudchenkoAntonUKR
1558.5-2.9+4.37-0.64
24GuigonnatAntoninFRA
2522.2+0.2+0.60-0.54
25MukhinAlexandrKAZ
1571.5-3.0+5.85-0.50
26ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
2214.7-2.5-0.37-0.37
27WegerBenjaminSUI
2426.7-2.0+1.21-0.36
28PeifferArndGER
2113.9-1.7-0.39-0.34
29NordgrenLeifUSA
1759.4+1.9+4.40-0.30
30DohertySeanUSA
1947.6-1.9+3.32-0.26
31EderSimonAUT
2633.9-1.6+2.00-0.25
32BormoliniThomasITA
1843.2-3.6+2.96-0.23
33KrcmarMichalCZE
2027.3+0.1+1.28-0.20
34BoeTarjeiNOR
266.4-1.6-1.52-0.20
35BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
261.7-1.3-3.10-0.20
36SeppalaTeroFIN
2128.0+0.1+1.17-0.17
37GuzikGrzegorzPOL
1562.5-2.1+4.95-0.06
38RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
1919.8+2.2+0.42-0.04
39LoginovAlexanderRUS
2417.6+0.2+0.10+0.03
40ClaudeFabienFRA
2517.0+2.0+0.08+0.03
41WindischDominikITA
1924.2+1.6+0.82+0.08
42EliseevMatveyRUS
2533.0+5.4+2.17+0.08
43GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
1836.1-0.2+2.36+0.15
44TrsanRokSLO
1870.1-2.7+6.71+0.26
45JacquelinEmilienFRA
2611.8+0.1-0.22+0.27
46DollBenediktGER
2612.2+2.3-0.72+0.28
47PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
2229.8+5.8+1.57+0.32
48DesthieuxSimonFRA
2615.4+3.1-0.18+0.46
49ClaudeFlorentBEL
1945.4+5.2+3.44+0.49
50MoravecOndrejCZE
1844.6+4.9+3.32+0.50
51PrymaArtemUKR
1937.4+9.0+2.23+0.58
52LeitnerFelixAUT
2328.7+5.1+1.50+0.61
53GowScottCAN
1956.4+5.5+4.30+0.65
54StroliaVytautasLTU
1649.9+7.2+3.62+0.65
55FemlingPeppeSWE
2150.5+2.9+3.94+0.70
56Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
257.6+1.9-1.35+0.72
57IlievVladimirBUL
1731.0+9.0+1.61+0.92
58KuehnJohannesGER
1619.5+12.8+0.34+1.69


Women

Dzinara Alimbekava was the most improved skier in the women’s field, skiing an incredible 5.8% faster than last year and lowering her average ski rank by 49.6! Dunja Zdouc managed to improve even more than her Austrian teammate Lisa Theresa Hauser. Skiing 3.9% faster, Hanna Sola set the fastest ski time twice this winter and made her first two career podiums. After setting the fastest ski time in one of the races at the season-opener in Kontiolahti (for the first time in her career), Hanna Öberg had an abysmal final month of the season.

Tiril Eckhoff dominated the World Cup action after Christmas – not because of improved skiing however, she remained more or less at the same (high) level as last year. Dorothea Wierer‘s skiing improved slightly over the course of the season, but last year’s World Cup winner was still 1.2% slower, which gave her little chance to defend her title. Denise Herrmann, last winter’s overall fastest saw her ski speed decline considerably, even though she still remained one of the field’s top 5 skiers.

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
2613.8-49.6-0.30-5.79
2ZdoucDunjaAUT
2541.4-35.2+2.92-4.39
3SolaHannaBLR
2311.5-35.9-0.56-3.85
4BeaudrySarahCAN
1566.6-16.5+5.84-3.85
5TomingasTuuliEST
1545.7-30.3+3.80-3.68
6BlashkoDaryaUKR
2044.5-18.3+3.68-3.33
7LieLotteBEL
1872.0-12.8+6.87-3.31
8CadurischIreneSUI
1652.1-18.9+4.13-2.80
9ReidJoanneUSA
1547.5-20.8+3.29-2.74
10HauserLisa TheresaAUT
2611.8-22.8-0.58-2.66
11TodorovaMilenaBUL
1933.9-17.0+2.14-1.84
12OebergElviraSWE
2516.3-9.2-0.11-1.72
13ChevalierChloeFRA
1826.0-18.7+1.25-1.68
14TalihaermJohannaEST
1842.2-12.1+3.10-1.38
15PreussFranziskaGER
2611.5-10.7-0.68-1.34
16SchwaigerJuliaAUT
1937.7-12.8+2.43-1.25
17MaedaSariJPN
1647.4-6.8+3.49-1.07
18CharvatovaLucieCZE
1719.6-5.3+0.50-0.97
19BendikaBaibaLAT
1624.0-9.4+0.85-0.95
20MinkkinenSuviFIN
1867.9-0.9+6.03-0.69
21PerssonLinnSWE
2618.2-4.4+0.16-0.66
22KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
2342.7-2.2+3.24-0.65
23GasparinElisaSUI
2145.4-4.8+3.33-0.45
24SimonJuliaFRA
2613.8-0.7-0.55-0.45
25BelchenkoYelizavetaKAZ
1572.3-1.6+7.05-0.40
26TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
259.3-3.4-0.94-0.39
27GasparinSelinaSUI
1914.4-3.7-0.13-0.30
28KlemencicPolonaSLO
1569.6-2.8+6.56-0.29
29DavidovaMarketaCZE
258.5-2.4-1.05-0.22
30JislovaJessicaCZE
1751.7-1.5+4.02-0.17
31DzhimaYuliiaUKR
2129.8+0.4+1.54-0.08
32MironovaSvetlanaRUS
2220.0+0.8+0.38-0.01
33HettichJaninaGER
2436.4-1.6+2.32+0.02
34RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
265.2-1.9-1.85+0.04
35EganClareUSA
2331.3-0.2+1.95+0.08
36LunderEmmaCAN
2242.0+3.5+2.92+0.14
37HammerschmidtMarenGER
1751.1-0.9+4.26+0.23
38KruchinkinaElenaBLR
2318.8-1.3+0.47+0.25
39EckhoffTirilNOR
264.1-1.4-2.22+0.28
40OebergHannaSWE
2616.8+2.7-0.05+0.34
41GasparinAitaSUI
1950.2+7.0+3.99+0.54
42BescondAnaisFRA
2621.9+4.4+0.73+0.67
43PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
1836.4+7.2+2.33+0.67
44InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
1725.4+7.0+1.03+0.77
45VittozziLisaITA
2526.8+6.8+1.34+0.80
46KryukoIrynaBLR
1540.4+11.9+2.50+0.84
47Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
268.3+2.5-1.15+0.86
48EderMariFIN
1719.9+6.4+0.40+1.03
49HinzVanessaGER
2235.1+12.0+2.11+1.07
50TachizakiFuyukoJPN
1855.3+6.7+4.74+1.08
51KuklinaLarisaRUS
1644.5+9.2+3.39+1.12
52WiererDorotheaITA
2617.3+7.2+0.19+1.18
53DunkleeSusanUSA
1946.3+13.3+3.49+1.38
54HaeckiLenaSUI
2131.3+14.3+1.77+1.59
55ZukKamilaPOL
1734.4+13.9+1.99+1.62
56BrorssonMonaSWE
2239.9+12.1+2.98+1.70
57HerrmannDeniseGER
2510.0+7.4-1.02+2.01
58Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
1634.5+17.5+1.94+2.07
59PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
1860.0+22.9+5.46+2.48

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged ski speed

All-time records for World Cup level pursuits

Posted on 2021-02-15 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on All-time records for World Cup level pursuits

At every major championship, there’s always the question of all-time records for pursuit performances. Let’s take a more detailed look at this. Pursuits are held since 1996–97 on World Cup level; there have been 185 men’s and 184 women’s pursuits in total. Records for a few of the earliest pursuits (1996–97 and 1997–98) don’t have bib numbers and/or time deficits and couldn’t be included here.

Men

Andreas Birnbacher holds the record for winning from furthest back (starting in 26th position), while Sven Fischer won with the biggest time gap at the start (1:36 min). Tarjei Bø once made second place with bib 44, which is a record for both biggest position and biggest time gain for a podium finisher (it’s also the biggest time gain overall, 2:14.4). Julien Robert has the record for the biggest improvement overall (50 positions).

Win from furthest back (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start Deficit
126BirnbacherAndreasGER
2011Hochfilzen-251:09.0
120DrachevVladimirBLR
2003Oestersund-191:18.0
118SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2020Kontiolahti-171:10.0
117SumannChristophAUT
2007Pokljuka-160:59.0
116BjoerndalenOle EinarNOR
2006Kontiolahti-150:48.0
115PoireeRaphaelFRA
1999Ruhpolding-140:47.0
113MaigourovViktorRUS
2001Oberhof-121:32.0
112MaigourovViktorRUS
1997Brezno-Osrblie (WCH)-110:48.0
111PoireeRaphaelFRA
1999Lake Placid-100:52.0
110FischerSvenGER
2004Oslo -91:36.0

Win from furthest back (time deficit)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start Deficit
110FischerSvenGER
2004Oslo -91:36.0
113MaigourovViktorRUS
2001Oberhof-121:32.0
120DrachevVladimirBLR
2003Oestersund-191:18.0
19BoeufAlexisFRA
2011Presque Isle ME-81:14.0
18FerryBjoernSWE
2010Whistler-71:12.0
118SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2020Kontiolahti-171:10.0
126BirnbacherAndreasGER
2011Hochfilzen-251:09.0
17BjoerndalenOle EinarNOR
2003Oslo -61:07.0
16SvendsenEmil HegleNOR
2011Oslo -51:04.0
110GreisMichaelGER
2008PyeongChang-91:01.0

Podium from furthest back (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
244BoeTarjeiNOR
2011Oslo-422:15.00:00.62:14.4
335FourcadeMartinFRA
2011Oslo-321:57.00:07.31:49.7
329KrcmarMichalCZE
2017Ruhpolding-261:33.00:19.51:13.5
126BirnbacherAndreasGER
2011Hochfilzen-251:09.0 1:09.0
325GrossRiccoGER
2001Hochfilzen-222:38.00:26.32:11.7
223ShipulinAntonRUS
2017PyeongChang-211:30.00:34.50:55.5
323ShipulinAntonRUS
2012Oestersund-201:08.00:03.31:04.7
222FourcadeSimonFRA
2013Khanty-Mansiysk-201:32.00:35.70:56.3
323KruglovNikolayRUS
2004Fort Kent -202:20.01:27.40:52.6
120DrachevVladimirBLR
2003Oestersund-191:18.0 1:18.0

Podium from furthest back (time deficit)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
244BoeTarjeiNOR
2011Oslo-422:15.00:00.62:14.4
325GrossRiccoGER
2001Hochfilzen-222:38.00:26.32:11.7
335FourcadeMartinFRA
2011Oslo-321:57.00:07.31:49.7
110FischerSvenGER
2004Oslo-91:36.0 1:36.0
113MaigourovViktorRUS
2001Oberhof-121:32.0 1:32.0
321PuurunenPaavoFIN
2003Khanty-Mansiysk (WCH)-182:16.00:56.31:19.7
314WolfAlexanderGER
2005Oberhof-111:25.00:06.51:18.5
120DrachevVladimirBLR
2003Oestersund-191:18.0 1:18.0
316AndresenFrodeNOR
2000Lahti-131:37.00:22.81:14.2
19BoeufAlexisFRA
2011Presque Isle -81:14.0 1:14.0

Biggest improvement overall (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
1060RobertJulienFRA
2005Oestersund-501:42.00:57.80:44.2
957PrymaArtemUKR
2017Oberhof-482:28.01:55.30:32.7
1158CattarinussiReneITA
1999Ruhpolding-471:52.00:52.70:59.3
956KruglovNikolayRUS
2006Hochfilzen-472:34.02:59.7-0:25.7
1459DostalRomanCZE
2003Hochfilzen-452:22.02:34.7-0:12.7
1256RostovtsevPavelRUS
1996Oslo -442:17.01:38.60:38.4
1760 Bailly-SalinsPatriceFRA
1996Oslo -432:25.02:08.80:16.2
1457HoferLukasITA
2015Khanty-Mansiysk-432:00.01:48.80:11.2
851TchepikovSergeiRUS
2002Oestersund-432:07.01:04.51:02.5
1052SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2018Nove Mesto-422:26.01:47.10:38.9

Biggest improvement overall (time)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
244BoeTarjeiNOR
2011Oslo -422:15.00:00.62:14.4
325GrossRiccoGER
2001Hochfilzen-222:38.00:26.32:11.7
642BjoerndalenOle EinarNOR
2000Lahti-362:41.00:33.72:07.3
335FourcadeMartinFRA
2011Oslo -321:57.00:07.31:49.7
2558MesotitschDanielAUT
2001Hochfilzen-334:00.02:23.91:36.1
110FischerSvenGER
2004Oslo -91:36.0 1:36.0
48RostovtsevPavelRUS
2001Hochfilzen-41:59.00:27.01:32.0
113MaigourovViktorRUS
2001Oberhof-121:32.0 1:32.0
1143RozhkovSergeiRUS
2004Oslo -322:30.00:58.61:31.4
948BjoerndalenOle EinarNOR
2007Khanty-Mansiysk-392:00.00:29.61:30.4

The biggest drops of all time: Vladimir Drachev (50 positions, Lillehammer 1996) and Jakov Fak (45 positions, Hochfilzen 2011).


Women

Martina Beck won from furthest back on the women’s side (bib 15), Magdalena Forsberg once overcame a deficit of 1:46 min (she started in second place in that race however). For podiums finishers, Florence Baverel-Robert and Olga Romasko hold the records for most positions and most time gained. In terms of overall improvement, Darya Domracheva has both records (48 positions, 2:30.9 time gain).

Win from furthest back (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start Deficit
115BeckMartinaGER
2000Oestersund-141:29.0
114BergerToraNOR
2013Antholz-Anterselva-131:08.0
111SimonJuliaFRA
2020Kontiolahti-100:57.0
110BeckMartinaGER
2003Khanty-Mansiysk (WCH)-90:58.0
110MakarainenKaisaFIN
2015Oestersund-90:52.0
110HenkelAndreaGER
2009Trondheim-90:43.0
19DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2014Sochi (Olympics)-80:32.0
18MedvedtsevaOlgaRUS
2002Soldier Hollow (Olympics)-71:03.0
18WilhelmKatiGER
2005Khanty-Mansiysk-71:03.0
18EckhoffTirilNOR
2020Kontiolahti-71:01.0

Win from furthest back (time deficit)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start Deficit
12ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
2001Oslo -11:46.0
115BeckMartinaGER
2000Oestersund-141:29.0
114BergerToraNOR
2013Antholz-Anterselva-131:08.0
17ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
2001Soldier Hollow-61:05.0
18MedvedtsevaOlgaRUS
2002Soldier Hollow (Olympics)-71:03.0
18WilhelmKatiGER
2005Khanty-Mansiysk-71:03.0
18EckhoffTirilNOR
2020Kontiolahti-71:01.0
110BeckMartinaGER
2003Khanty-Mansiysk (WCH)-90:58.0
111SimonJuliaFRA
2020Kontiolahti-100:57.0
15EkholmHelenaSWE
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-40:55.0

Podium from furthest back (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
332BaverelFlorenceFRA
2000Oslo-292:08.00:42.41:25.6
227DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2017Hochfilzen (WCH)-251:26.00:11.61:14.4
322SemerenkoVitaUKR
2018Oberhof-191:38.01:10.20:27.8
322BeckMartinaGER
2004Beitostolen-191:00.00:25.50:34.5
221ZubrilovaOlenaUKR
2003Oslo-191:00.00:03.60:56.4
321SolemdalSynnoeveNOR
2014Oberhof-181:55.01:11.70:43.3
220DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2014Kontiolahti-181:07.01:00.00:07.0
220WilhelmKatiGER
2005Oestersund-181:15.00:13.31:01.7
220WiererDorotheaITA
2015Oestersund-181:11.00:01.91:09.1
319BaillySandrineFRA
2004Lake Placid -161:26.00:51.00:35.0

Podium from furthest back (time deficit)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
313RomaskoOlgaRUS
1996Oslo-103:25.01:12.12:12.9
23KouklevaGalinaRUS
1996Oslo-12:35.00:34.12:00.9
12ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
2001Oslo-11:46.0 1:46.0
37BeckMartinaGER
2001Oslo-42:13.00:41.41:31.6
115BeckMartinaGER
2000Oestersund-141:29.0 1:29.0
332BaverelFlorenceFRA
2000Oslo-292:08.00:42.41:25.6
215BaillySandrineFRA
2005Khanty-Mansiysk-131:34.00:19.01:15.0
227DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2017Hochfilzen (WCH)-251:26.00:11.61:14.4
313ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
1999Oberhof-101:34.00:23.11:10.9
218GrubbenLindaNOR
2007Antholz-Anterselva (WCH)-161:17.00:07.11:09.9

Biggest improvement overall (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
553DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-483:10.00:39.12:30.9
552HolubcovaKaterinaCZE
2003Hochfilzen-472:44.01:06.31:37.7
752BrunetMarie LaureFRA
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-453:09.00:54.92:14.1
1457TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
2020Antholz-Anterselva (WCH)-432:01.01:30.10:30.9
1759HoegbergElisabethSWE
2015Hochfilzen-421:55.01:12.20:42.8
1859SemerenkoValentinaUKR
2020Ruhpolding-412:25.02:03.10:21.9
1960TofalviEvaROU
2015Oestersund-412:21.02:19.30:01.7
1757LiuXianyingCHN
2004Oestersund-402:24.02:49.0-0:25.0
1959TakahashiRyokoJPN
2000Oberhof-403:44.05:04.4-1:20.4
645PreussFranziskaGER
2019Oberhof-391:49.00:54.70:54.3

Biggest improvement overall (time)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
553DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-483:10.00:39.12:30.9
752BrunetMarie LaureFRA
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-453:09.00:54.92:14.1
313RomaskoOlgaRUS
1996Oslo -103:25.01:12.12:12.9
23KouklevaGalinaRUS
1996Oslo -12:35.00:34.12:00.9
1125BriandAnneFRA
1996Oslo -143:55.02:03.51:51.5
12ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
2001Oslo -11:46.0 1:46.0
552HolubcovaKaterinaCZE
2003Hochfilzen-472:44.01:06.31:37.7
610TalanovaNadejdaRUS
1996Oslo -43:10.01:32.91:37.1
912ParamyguinaSvetlanaBLR
1996Oslo -33:24.01:47.41:36.6
48NiogretCorinneFRA
1996Oslo -42:58.01:22.31:35.7

The biggest drops of all time: Franziska Hildebrand (47 positions, Nove Mesto 2015) and Svetlana Mironova (46 positions, Hochfilzen 2017).

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged pursuit

Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

Posted on 2021-02-06 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

With the World Championships around the corner, it’s worth looking at the best-performing athletes after Christmas again. I think it’s fair to assume that the majority of medal winners will come from in-form athletes going into the championship, although history tells us there are a handful of surprises usually. Below, I listed the best biathletes (ranked by Overall Performance Scores) for the January races – full results for the entire field here: men & women.


Note: Only athletes with at least 3 races in January are included. The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

World Cup leader Johannes Thingnes Bø tops the ranking unsurprisingly; he won 3 out of 6 races after Christmas and set the top ski time in 5 of them. However, his overall score is down from last season, because his non-team shooting percentage is 6.3% lower. Sturla Holm Lægreid‘s hit rate also declined slightly in January, but it still stands at an incredible 92.9%, giving him 4 wins this season. Even though Lukas Hofer failed to make a single podium so far, he has been very consistent; the fourth-fastest skier overall and top 6 in all but one of the races in trimester 2.

Quentin Fillon Maillet‘s average race rank wouldn’t tell you (forgetting a penalty loop in Oberhof is to blame for that), but he has been best of the rest behind the Norwegians this season (4 podiums in total, including 2 in the last 2 races in Antholz). Tarjei Bø is currently at his best ski speed since 2010–11 (third-fastest overall), but he is also the slowest shooter in the top 10. Arnd Peiffer‘s hit rate of 90.0% this winter is a tied career-best for him, Johannes Dale is the field’s second-fastest skier (both for the season and January-only).

The other two race winners, Alexander Loginov and Sebastian Samuelsson, come to Pokljuka with some question marks. Reigning sprint world champion Loginov only had one top 6 result all season, his win in Antholz, while Samuelsson’s ski form decline Dec. to Jan. is the worst of the men’s field. The other multiple podium finishers this winter are: Émilien Jacquelin, Martin Ponsiluoma and Fabien Claude (who also saw a big decline in January).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
64.746.8-1.98-0.35-0.70-1.36
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
65.745.3-1.30-1.17-1.23-1.25
3HoferLukasITA
66.338.8-1.45-0.65-0.84-1.15
4Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
521.433.4-1.36-0.55-1.55-1.15
5BoeTarjeiNOR
67.740.8-1.47-0.86-0.23-1.14
6PeifferArndGER
614.529.8-1.24-1.06-0.62-1.11
7DaleJohannesNOR
610.734.2-1.60-0.45-0.14-1.09
8PonsiluomaMartinSWE
611.230.3-1.42-0.04-1.34-1.01
9DollBenediktGER
615.825.5-1.29-0.35-1.13-1.00
10LoginovAlexanderRUS
515.429.6-0.99-1.06-0.66-0.97
11JacquelinEmilienFRA
615.225.8-1.23-0.35-1.00-0.95
12FakJakovSLO
615.527.7-0.82-1.06-1.23-0.94
13SamuelssonSebastianSWE
619.223.0-0.96-0.86-0.51-0.87
14LesserErikGER
620.022.8-0.82-0.76-1.34-0.87
15WegerBenjaminSUI
615.527.2-0.75-1.17-0.69-0.86
16DesthieuxSimonFRA
615.825.3-1.07-0.35-1.00-0.85
17ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
521.626.0-1.01-0.55-0.53-0.82
18BjoentegaardErlendNOR
414.327.3-0.80-1.06-0.28-0.82
19EderSimonAUT
619.024.0-0.45-1.37-1.29-0.82
20EliseevMatveyRUS
515.225.0-0.64-1.06-0.86-0.79
21YaliotnauRamanBLR
329.318.0-1.13-0.30-0.08-0.76
22PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
438.511.4-1.070.13-0.89-0.70
23WindischDominikITA
533.014.2-1.110.09-0.47-0.69
24HornPhilippGER
433.010.3-1.18-0.040.21-0.68
25SmolskiAntonBLR
432.58.8-0.76-0.55-0.53-0.67
26PrymaArtemUKR
432.810.0-0.68-0.55-0.84-0.66
27SeppalaTeroFIN
434.38.0-1.07-0.040.21-0.62
28LeitnerFelixAUT
625.716.5-0.82-0.550.28-0.61
29BocharnikovSergeyBLR
534.014.8-0.58-0.68-0.48-0.59
30ClaudeFabienFRA
630.518.3-0.920.26-0.82-0.56
31FinelloJeremySUI
535.09.4-1.060.34-0.20-0.55
32GuigonnatAntoninFRA
626.213.5-0.900.26-0.70-0.54
33GiacomelTommasoITA
443.52.5-0.700.30-1.60-0.52
34RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
533.28.4-0.900.21-0.26-0.50
35NelinJesperSWE
340.05.8-1.170.161.18-0.50
36DohertySeanUSA
439.84.0-0.36-0.72-0.60-0.50
37LatypovEduardRUS
624.516.7-0.970.260.04-0.49
38ReesRomanGER
328.313.7-0.55-0.650.31-0.47
39KomatzDavidAUT
622.817.0-0.11-1.370.03-0.46
40GowChristianCAN
445.39.8-0.22-0.55-1.30-0.44
41DudchenkoAntonUKR
326.317.3-0.01-1.27-0.38-0.42
42GowScottCAN
448.50.8-0.16-0.38-1.42-0.38
43BormoliniThomasITA
442.09.5-0.52-0.210.01-0.37
44DombrovskiKarolLTU
447.84.5-0.05-0.890.15-0.27
45NordgrenLeifUSA
446.30.50.14-1.06-0.07-0.23
46StreltsovKirillRUS
443.36.3-0.26-0.21-0.06-0.22
47StroliaVytautasLTU
442.08.8-0.410.13-0.01-0.21
48StvrteckyJakubCZE
458.81.5-0.860.641.07-0.20
49FemlingPeppeSWE
537.45.00.03-0.42-0.67-0.19
50ClaudeEmilienFRA
454.82.5-0.10-0.38-0.03-0.17


Women

Lisa Theresa Hauser won most World Cup points in January, something few would have predicted before Christmas. Being both accurate (93.0%) and fast (26.2s) makes her the most efficient shot on the women’s side at the moment. Combined with her new-found top10 ski speed, she is a threat in all events. Tiril Eckhoff followed her trajectory from last season almost exactly: four incredible World Cups in a row, followed by a considerable dip in form. Eckhoff has most wins (6) and podiums (8), but will her disappointing showing in Antholz last year be on her mind?

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Røiseland has made only one podium in trimester 2, however, she remains virtually tied with Eckhoff as the field’s top skier. Hanna Öberg managed two wins and the second-most podiums this winter (7). Julia Simon, who alongside Öberg is the fastest shooter, won two of the last 4 races, still, she is arguably the least consistent (last four positions: 59-1-62-1). Monika Hojnisz-Staręga comes 5th, but she only did 3 races (2 of them sprints), which inflates her ski speed for this ranking. Nonetheless, she is much improved, winning the European Championship Individual recently.

Dorothea Wierer‘s ski speed improved after Christmas (still off her pace from the last two seasons); in contrast, Franziska Preuß is skiing faster than ever. Anaïs Chevalier-Bouchet‘s statistics stand out in particular: her hit rate is roughly 6% lower than in any of her previous five seasons, at the same time she currently skies roughly 1.5% faster than ever before. The two other multiple podium finishers, Dzinara Alimbekava and Elvira Öberg, have both been struggling in January (no top 6 result).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1HauserLisa TheresaAUT
64.246.8-1.09-1.26-1.62-1.20
2EckhoffTirilNOR
66.245.2-1.48-0.51-1.24-1.17
3RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
610.035.0-1.44-0.51-0.82-1.10
4OebergHannaSWE
68.539.7-0.93-0.79-2.00-1.02
5Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
314.727.3-1.14-0.98-0.47-1.01
6WiererDorotheaITA
611.234.2-0.88-0.89-1.83-1.00
7MironovaSvetlanaRUS
610.732.2-1.05-0.60-1.48-0.97
8PreussFranziskaGER
612.832.2-1.00-0.70-1.28-0.95
9DavidovaMarketaCZE
614.227.8-1.22-0.51-0.38-0.91
10DzhimaYuliiaUKR
512.032.0-0.82-1.10-0.57-0.87
11SimonJuliaFRA
623.731.5-1.280.52-1.93-0.84
12Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
615.027.3-1.16-0.32-0.47-0.83
13PavlovaEvgeniyaRUS
519.423.2-0.76-0.51-0.97-0.71
14HerrmannDeniseGER
620.020.2-1.360.52-0.37-0.70
15KaishevaUlianaRUS
618.322.5-0.54-0.79-1.22-0.69
16PerssonLinnSWE
618.822.2-0.75-0.890.16-0.68
17HaeckiLenaSUI
432.09.0-0.58-0.51-1.45-0.66
18BescondAnaisFRA
616.024.8-0.83-0.600.10-0.65
19AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
619.320.3-0.88-0.32-0.26-0.64
20HettichJaninaGER
621.520.7-0.52-1.07-0.11-0.63
21GasparinSelinaSUI
434.010.5-1.10-0.040.30-0.63
22HinzVanessaGER
523.018.0-0.57-0.86-0.33-0.63
23BendikaBaibaLAT
436.08.5-1.200.43-0.34-0.63
24Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
611.531.0-0.88-0.14-0.45-0.61
25KuklinaLarisaRUS
522.418.6-0.27-0.98-1.29-0.60
26SolaHannaBLR
435.56.3-1.240.89-0.91-0.58
27OebergElviraSWE
623.818.2-0.61-0.42-0.83-0.58
28KruchinkinaElenaBLR
527.419.0-1.210.310.80-0.53
29LienIdaNOR
438.08.5-0.990.110.45-0.50
30CadurischIreneSUI
441.34.8-0.25-0.51-1.65-0.49
31EderMariFIN
342.02.8-1.06-0.041.27-0.48
32LunderEmmaCAN
533.011.5-0.23-0.63-1.36-0.48
33ColomboCarolineFRA
431.810.0-0.46-0.51-0.28-0.45
34KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
628.212.30.18-1.45-1.05-0.44
35VittozziLisaITA
532.417.0-0.710.31-0.84-0.43
36ZdoucDunjaAUT
622.717.3-0.15-0.98-0.26-0.41
37SchwaigerJuliaAUT
434.011.0-0.60-0.200.15-0.39
38PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
442.56.8-0.50-0.510.53-0.38
39TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
535.011.0-0.730.090.23-0.38
40BankesMeganCAN
351.75.3-0.17-0.28-1.56-0.37
41AvvakumovaEkaterinaKOR
531.011.4-0.28-0.63-0.05-0.36
42ZukKamilaPOL
341.30.7-0.77-0.041.08-0.34
43InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
357.00.7-1.130.890.66-0.33
44TalihaermJohannaEST
445.53.5-0.30-0.981.25-0.31
45GasparinElisaSUI
442.34.0-0.430.11-0.43-0.27
46KazakevichIrinaRUS
457.51.0-0.820.740.07-0.26
47ChevalierChloeFRA
445.57.3-0.750.270.93-0.25
48JislovaJessicaCZE
353.00.3-0.27-0.510.63-0.23
49GasparinAitaSUI
442.85.8-0.01-0.36-0.97-0.23
50BrorssonMonaSWE
538.015.00.18-0.75-0.77-0.20

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged World Championships

Ski speed – First vs. second trimester

Posted on 2021-01-28 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Ski speed – First vs. second trimester

The season is already more than halfway over. Who managed to improve their ski form during the winter? In this post, I looked at changes in ski speed for World Cup trimester 1 compared to World Cup trimester 2 (November/December 2020 vs. January 2021). For patrons, I recently updated the comparisons bonus section – there you can compare all shooting and skiing stats on your own, not only season-to-season, but also by trimester now.


Note: Only athletes with at least 5 non-team races in trimester 1 and trimester 2 of the current season are included in the tables. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per trimester).


Men

Surprise podium finisher Felix Leitner managed to improve his ski speed by roughly 1.3% compared to pre-Christmas races. Lukas Hofer improved by virtually the same amount, although he did so on a much higher level (he was the fourth-fastest skier overall for trimester 2). A lot has been made about Johannes Thingnes Bø not dominating as he did in previous seasons, however, his ski speed certainly isn’t to blame; he set the top course time in 5 out of 6 races in January!

Jakov Fak had a great start to his season (four top 10s in a row), but his ski speed is now trending in the wrong direction before the upcoming world championships in Pokljuka. Sebastian Samuelsson‘s speed has declined 1.4% post-Christmas, his average ski rank is 10.9 positions lower. Fabien Claude isn’t doing much better, he also has a ski rank now roughly ten places lower compared to World Cup trimester 1.

Changes in Ski Speed World Cup Trimester 1 vs. World Cup Trimester 2 | 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1LeitnerFelixAUT
619.8-16.6+0.71-1.29
2HoferLukasITA
66.2-7.2-1.51-1.26
3GuigonnatAntoninFRA
620.0-11.0+0.44-1.16
4EliseevMatveyRUS
518.8-17.0+1.07-1.07
5DollBenediktGER
612.5-3.5-0.92-0.92
6FinelloJeremySUI
518.4-9.2+0.26-0.90
7PeifferArndGER
611.5-6.5-0.73-0.90
8BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
61.3-1.1-3.36-0.70
9DesthieuxSimonFRA
614.7-4.9-0.15-0.60
10EderSimonAUT
634.0-5.2+2.04-0.54
11Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
58.6-2.4-1.11-0.47
12LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
69.7-3.9-0.95-0.41
13KomatzDavidAUT
640.8-5.6+3.18-0.37
14LatypovEduardRUS
616.2-2.7+0.18-0.23
15DaleJohannesNOR
63.0-3.1-1.99-0.02
16JacquelinEmilienFRA
610.5+0.3-0.71+0.10
17BoeTarjeiNOR
66.0+1.4-1.55+0.23
18FakJakovSLO
623.2+3.2+0.71+0.25
19PonsiluomaMartinSWE
67.8+2.2-1.40+0.27
20RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
522.8+2.2+0.82+0.32
21LesserErikGER
621.5+2.8+0.70+0.34
22WegerBenjaminSUI
624.8+4.6+0.98+0.39
23FemlingPeppeSWE
542.2-9.7+4.06+0.41
24BionazDidierITA
544.6+0.2+3.65+0.45
25ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
518.2+4.9+0.11+0.74
26LoginovAlexanderRUS
521.2+7.5+0.52+0.77
27BocharnikovSergeyBLR
532.6+5.1+1.98+0.92
28ClaudeFabienFRA
619.8+9.6+0.39+1.07
29SamuelssonSebastianSWE
619.2+10.9+0.26+1.39


Women

Elena Kruchinkina, who set the fastest course time in the first Oberhof sprint (before that she never had a top 3 course time), is the most improved skier among regular female starters: 2.4% faster compared to December and her average ski rank is now 16.5 positions lower. Yuliia Dzhima and Svetlana Mironova come second and third, skiing 2.0% and 1.6% faster respectively. Two-time winner Julia Simon improved almost as much percentage-wise, but more importantly, she was the fourth-fastest skier in January.

Monika Hojnisz-Staręga is missing here, because she only appeared in three races in January, however, she would have topped the ranking, 3.4% faster than in trimester 1. Dorothea Wierer‘s skiing has improved slightly, but her average ski rank in January (16.8) is still way behind her average from last season (10.0). Elvira Öberg and Mona Brorsson have been struggling in recent races, both roughly 3% slower in January.

Changes in Ski Speed World Cup Trimester 1 vs. World Cup Trimester 2 | 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1KruchinkinaElenaBLR
510.2-16.5-0.84-2.39
2DzhimaYuliiaUKR
523.0-18.6+0.81-1.96
3MironovaSvetlanaRUS
612.2-13.3-0.57-1.59
4SimonJuliaFRA
66.5-12.8-1.57-1.42
5HettichJaninaGER
627.5-15.3+1.62-1.32
6HinzVanessaGER
530.8-14.2+1.88-1.15
7KaishevaUlianaRUS
625.8-13.3+1.55-1.02
8VittozziLisaITA
521.2-10.2+0.95-0.88
9HerrmannDeniseGER
64.2-4.2-1.90-0.65
10ZdoucDunjaAUT
636.2-15.4+3.16-0.55
11WiererDorotheaITA
616.8-4.3+0.11-0.49
12EckhoffTirilNOR
62.3-3.2-2.38-0.44
13HauserLisa TheresaAUT
610.5-2.2-0.76-0.39
14PavlovaEvgeniyaRUS
524.4-5.1+1.09-0.35
15RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
62.8-1.7-2.24-0.28
16DavidovaMarketaCZE
66.5-0.4-1.29+0.14
17PreussFranziskaGER
612.7+0.6-0.39+0.17
18LunderEmmaCAN
535.8-1.3+2.59+0.18
19BescondAnaisFRA
619.0+3.0+0.34+0.18
20PerssonLinnSWE
623.3+4.0+0.68+0.35
21AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
615.7+1.4+0.12+0.46
22Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
67.8+2.1-1.03+0.59
23OebergHannaSWE
616.7+4.7-0.09+0.62
24Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
613.2+5.7+0.08+1.23
25TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
520.0+12.9+0.58+1.86
26EganClareUSA
634.7+6.6+3.12+1.88
27KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
647.3+14.4+4.56+2.67
28OebergElviraSWE
624.5+17.8+1.25+2.89
29BrorssonMonaSWE
546.6+17.7+4.72+3.17

Overall, the Swedes arguably stand out the most, doing particularly poorly after Christmas – all of their regular starters declined in the new year (often by a lot). Alternatively, you could look at it the other way around: they simply outperformed, especially in Kontiolahti, and now regressed to a more normal level.

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged ski speed

Overall performance scores, season-to-season improvements

Posted on 2021-01-19 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Overall performance scores, season-to-season improvements

Last weekend’s mass starts marked the halfway point of the season (13 of 26 races are done). This is probably a good time to take another look at the overall performances this winter. Below, I listed the season-to-season changes in the Overall Performance Score of regular World Cup athletes (at least 8 races in the last two seasons), plus the current top 15 per gender (full results for the entire field here: men & women). You can do your own season-to-season comparisons for all stats in the Patreon bonus area.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

It’s always interesting to me how accurately this very theoretical method reflects the current World Cup standings. For the men, the top 2, Johannes Thingnes Bø and Sturla Holm Lægreid, are predicted correctly – only through skiing and shooting stats, without taking a single race result into account. I think that’s pretty good. Twelve of the top 15 come within two positions of their current World Cup rank.

Quentin Fillon Maillet is overestimated, in large parts because he forgot to do a penalty loop in the Oberhof sprint (which essentially ruined two races for him). It’s no surprise that something like that isn’t reflected here. Arnd Peiffer is ranked four positions higher than his current World Cup rank, however, he missed two races in Hochfilzen last month and his average race position (14.7) would rank him 9th overall, therefore this ranking is not a bad estimation of his form this season.

Top 15 Overall performance score (z-Scores) | Non-Team events 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
131-2.09-0.65-0.67-1.50
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
132-1.45-1.49-0.77-1.38
3Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
127-1.49-1.04-1.14-1.32
4BoeTarjeiNOR
133-1.74-0.85-0.22-1.30
5JacquelinEmilienFRA
136-1.44-1.00-1.26-1.29
6DaleJohannesNOR
134-1.83-0.800.27-1.28
7SamuelssonSebastianSWE
135-1.51-1.05-0.30-1.23
8PonsiluomaMartinSWE
138-1.73-0.11-1.14-1.19
9PeifferArndGER
1113-1.33-1.10-0.53-1.16
10LesserErikGER
1311-1.18-1.00-1.29-1.14
11FakJakovSLO
139-1.09-1.29-0.87-1.12
12HoferLukasITA
1310-1.47-0.46-0.78-1.10
13DollBenediktGER
1312-1.28-0.75-0.97-1.09
14ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
1215-1.32-0.93-0.27-1.08
15LoginovAlexanderRUS
1219-1.31-0.71-0.64-1.06

Looking at changes season-to-season, the Swedish duo Martin Ponsiluoma and Sebastian Samuelsson are the most improved biathletes, mainly due to their new found ski speed. Lukas Hofer comes third; he had a very impressive two weeks in Oberhof (top 6 results in all four non-team races). Benjamin Weger made his first podium in almost eight years last Sunday (his current non-team percentage is at an all-time high, 88.5%); he is the fourth most improved athlete right now.

2020–21 z-Scores compared to 2019–20 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1PonsiluomaMartinSWE
13-1.73-0.11-1.14-1.19-0.69
2SamuelssonSebastianSWE
13-1.51-1.05-0.30-1.23-0.56
3HoferLukasITA
13-1.47-0.46-0.78-1.10-0.44
4WegerBenjaminSUI
13-1.06-0.95-0.54-0.96-0.34
5BocharnikovSergeyBLR
12-1.00-0.39-0.37-0.75-0.33
6SimaMichalSVK
90.24-0.77-0.38-0.13-0.31
7EliseevMatveyRUS
13-0.82-1.15-1.10-0.95-0.28
8GowChristianCAN
11-0.36-1.16-0.68-0.63-0.27
9LatypovEduardRUS
13-1.14-0.360.08-0.77-0.26
10HasillaTomasSVK
80.190.38-0.030.22-0.26
11FakJakovSLO
13-1.09-1.29-0.87-1.12-0.25
12SmolskiAntonBLR
11-1.17-0.24-0.11-0.77-0.21
13DaleJohannesNOR
13-1.83-0.800.27-1.28-0.21
14EderSimonAUT
13-0.50-1.64-1.33-0.93-0.15
15JacquelinEmilienFRA
13-1.44-1.00-1.26-1.29-0.14
16KrcmarMichalCZE
9-0.83-1.100.03-0.80-0.11
17LangerThierryBEL
9-0.22-0.360.47-0.17-0.11
18PeifferArndGER
11-1.33-1.10-0.53-1.16-0.11
19BormoliniThomasITA
8-0.72-0.74-0.41-0.69-0.10
20ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
12-1.32-0.93-0.27-1.08-0.10
21NordgrenLeifUSA
9-0.31-0.52-0.21-0.36-0.10
22ClaudeFabienFRA
13-1.37-0.01-0.85-0.92-0.10
23NelinJesperSWE
11-1.400.240.01-0.75-0.10
24BoeTarjeiNOR
13-1.74-0.85-0.22-1.30-0.08
25DombrovskiKarolLTU
10-0.14-0.820.48-0.26-0.08
26DollBenediktGER
13-1.28-0.75-0.97-1.09-0.06
27DovzanMihaSLO
90.40-0.69-1.24-0.11-0.06
28WindischDominikITA
9-0.94-0.04-0.29-0.60-0.05
29RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
12-1.14-0.06-0.30-0.73-0.04
30GuigonnatAntoninFRA
13-0.90-0.80-0.43-0.82-0.02
31LeitnerFelixAUT
11-0.93-0.730.73-0.68+0.00
32SeppalaTeroFIN
11-1.000.07-0.02-0.57+0.03
33Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
12-1.49-1.04-1.14-1.32+0.04
34DohertySeanUSA
11-0.34-0.36-0.60-0.38+0.08
35YaliotnauRamanBLR
10-0.920.59-0.03-0.37+0.08
36LoginovAlexanderRUS
12-1.31-0.71-0.64-1.06+0.10
37PrymaArtemUKR
11-0.73-0.24-0.87-0.60+0.10
38ErmitsKalevEST
90.020.27-0.110.07+0.11
39BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
13-2.09-0.65-0.67-1.50+0.11
40StroliaVytautasLTU
10-0.42-0.110.16-0.26+0.11
41FemlingPeppeSWE
12-0.19-0.39-1.04-0.35+0.14
42IlievVladimirBUL
8-0.880.25-0.07-0.45+0.14
43DesthieuxSimonFRA
13-1.20-0.51-0.80-0.95+0.15
44EberhardJulianAUT
8-1.130.05-0.30-0.69+0.17
45MoravecOndrejCZE
10-0.34-0.77-0.75-0.51+0.20
46PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
11-0.69-0.17-1.19-0.60+0.20
47StvrteckyJakubCZE
10-0.981.081.28-0.11+0.21
48GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
8-0.42-0.93-0.46-0.58+0.22
49KuehnJohannesGER
9-1.23-0.040.57-0.67+0.24
50ClaudeFlorentBEL
9-0.48-0.110.92-0.21+0.25
51TrsanRokSLO
80.63-0.74-0.920.05+0.34
52GowScottCAN
90.14-0.11-1.12-0.08+0.38
53GuzikGrzegorzPOL
10-0.060.73-0.460.12+0.38


Women

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Røiseland tops the women’s ranking, even though Tiril Eckhoff has won 6 out of 13 races so far. It’s a bit surprising that Eckhoff is only ranked third. Her overall season statistics are still affected by her very poor season opener in Kontiolahti, where she failed to make the World Cup points in both races.

Eckhoff’s ranking could be an argument that the best and worst one/two/three data points should be thrown out to better reflect an athlete’s expected standard performance. Presumably, the ranking would then no longer correlate as closely to the current World Cup standings though. Overall, 13 of the top 15 come within two positions of their current World Cup rank; no one in the top 8 is off by more than one position.

Top 15 Overall performance score (z-Scores) | Non-Team events 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
131-1.51-0.88-1.18-1.29
2OebergHannaSWE
133-1.20-0.97-1.82-1.21
3EckhoffTirilNOR
132-1.51-0.64-0.53-1.14
4WiererDorotheaITA
134-0.94-1.26-1.56-1.10
5OebergElviraSWE
136-1.32-0.64-0.80-1.06
6PreussFranziskaGER
135-1.17-0.73-1.24-1.05
7HauserLisa TheresaAUT
138-1.15-0.73-1.03-1.02
8AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
137-1.12-1.02-0.42-1.01
9SimonJuliaFRA
1312-1.19-0.12-1.75-0.94
10Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
1314-1.39-0.31-0.14-0.93
11DavidovaMarketaCZE
139-1.38-0.35-0.07-0.93
12HerrmannDeniseGER
1311-1.38-0.16-0.52-0.93
13TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
1213-1.29-0.51-0.05-0.91
14PerssonLinnSWE
1315-0.98-0.78-0.25-0.84
15KnottenKarolineNOR
1316-0.47-1.31-1.30-0.81

Just like on the men’s side, the most improved skier, Dzinara Alimbekava, is also the most improved biathlete overall, confirming again that ski speed is by far the most important aspect of the sport – maybe not in a single race, but certainly if you look at results over longer periods. Elvira Öberg and Tuuli Tomingas come second and third. Monika Hojnisz-Staręga suffered one of the biggest declines season-to-season, however, after an extremely poor December, she was much improved in Oberhof.

2020–21 z-Scores compared to 2019–20 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
13-1.12-1.02-0.42-1.01-0.93
2OebergElviraSWE
13-1.32-0.64-0.80-1.06-0.54
3TomingasTuuliEST
10-0.66-0.390.16-0.48-0.54
4ZdoucDunjaAUT
13-0.33-1.07-0.30-0.54-0.38
5HettichJaninaGER
13-0.50-1.26-0.06-0.67-0.31
6ReidJoanneUSA
9-0.46-0.510.77-0.33-0.30
7KnottenKarolineNOR
13-0.47-1.31-1.30-0.81-0.28
8ColomboCarolineFRA
11-0.76-0.29-0.49-0.59-0.26
9HauserLisa TheresaAUT
13-1.15-0.73-1.03-1.02-0.23
10MinkkinenSuviFIN
90.03-0.59-0.92-0.27-0.20
11MironovaSvetlanaRUS
10-1.06-0.18-0.81-0.78-0.19
12BlashkoDaryaUKR
10-0.31-1.320.17-0.55-0.16
13KlemencicPolonaSLO
80.070.36-0.060.14-0.14
14SolaHannaBLR
11-1.130.95-0.97-0.51-0.14
15DavidovaMarketaCZE
13-1.38-0.35-0.07-0.93-0.14
16LunderEmmaCAN
13-0.52-1.02-1.15-0.74-0.13
17Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
13-1.39-0.31-0.14-0.93-0.08
18OebergHannaSWE
13-1.20-0.97-1.82-1.21-0.07
19RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
13-1.51-0.88-1.18-1.29-0.05
20SchwaigerJuliaAUT
10-0.60-0.59-0.01-0.53-0.05
21SimonJuliaFRA
13-1.19-0.12-1.75-0.94-0.05
22MaedaSariJPN
9-0.490.600.21-0.09-0.05
23TodorovaMilenaBUL
10-0.610.010.20-0.33-0.03
24BrorssonMonaSWE
11-0.72-0.77-0.62-0.72-0.03
25PerssonLinnSWE
13-0.98-0.78-0.25-0.84-0.03
26TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
12-1.29-0.51-0.05-0.91-0.01
27HaeckiLenaSUI
11-0.70-0.17-1.61-0.66-0.01
28KryukoIrynaBLR
8-0.79-0.860.97-0.60+0.00
29WiererDorotheaITA
13-0.94-1.26-1.56-1.10+0.01
30GasparinElisaSUI
10-0.55-0.12-0.84-0.46+0.02
31PreussFranziskaGER
13-1.17-0.73-1.24-1.05+0.02
32EckhoffTirilNOR
13-1.51-0.64-0.53-1.14+0.03
33TachizakiFuyukoJPN
10-0.32-0.520.64-0.27+0.05
34KruchinkinaElenaBLR
13-0.91-0.210.87-0.49+0.06
35ChevalierChloeFRA
11-0.930.000.75-0.46+0.07
36JislovaJessicaCZE
9-0.400.040.27-0.19+0.08
37FrolinaAnnaKOR
9-0.160.44-0.36-0.01+0.10
38GasparinAitaSUI
10-0.38-0.59-0.85-0.50+0.10
39ZukKamilaPOL
10-0.810.021.11-0.34+0.10
40SkottheimJohannaSWE
11-0.41-0.96-0.96-0.64+0.10
41BescondAnaisFRA
13-1.03-0.400.19-0.70+0.11
42GasparinSelinaSUI
9-1.100.200.18-0.57+0.11
43EderMariFIN
9-1.170.281.25-0.46+0.11
44BelchenkoYelizavetaKAZ
80.41-0.59-0.120.05+0.12
45HinzVanessaGER
10-0.58-0.86-0.33-0.63+0.12
46CharvatovaLucieCZE
9-1.031.50-0.93-0.28+0.13
47EganClareUSA
13-0.73-0.500.66-0.50+0.14
48HerrmannDeniseGER
13-1.38-0.16-0.52-0.93+0.15
49TalihaermJohannaEST
9-0.25-0.190.93-0.09+0.15
50DzhimaYuliiaUKR
10-0.74-0.66-0.20-0.65+0.17
51PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
8-0.58-0.37-0.20-0.48+0.20
52PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
10-0.11-0.46-1.25-0.35+0.20
53VittozziLisaITA
12-0.74-0.06-0.64-0.53+0.23
54DunkleeSusanUSA
10-0.470.29-0.14-0.21+0.23
55Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
8-0.61-0.91-0.29-0.66+0.30
56InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
10-0.991.31-0.00-0.20+0.40
57ZbylutKingaPOL
10-0.070.360.000.07+0.42

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, overall performance, shooting, skiing

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