real biathlon
    • Athletes
    • Teams
    • Races
    • Seasons
    • Scores
    • Records
    • Blog(current)
    • More
      Patreon Content Course Profiles Explanations Shortcuts
      Error Report
      Privacy Policy About
    •     
  • Forum
  • Patreon
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
    Instagram
    Facebook

Recent Articles

  • Most improved athletes this winter
  • New biathlon point system
  • Historic biathlon results create expectations. But what about points?
  • What do you expect? Practical applications of the W.E.I.S.E.
  • Introducing W. E. I. S. E: the Win Expectancy Index based on Statistical Exploration, version 1

Categories

  • Biathlon Media
  • Biathlon News
  • Long-term trends
  • Statistical analysis
  • Website updates

Archives

  • 2022
    • December
    • June
    • May
    • March
    • February
    • January
  • 2021
    • December
    • November
    • September
    • July
    • June
    • May
    • April
    • March
    • February
    • January
  • 2020
    • December
    • November
    • August
    • June
    • March
  • 2015
    • December
  • 2013
    • August
    • July
  • 2012
    • July

Search Articles

Recent Tweets

Tweets by realbiathlon

Tag: pursuit

Wierer’s Pursuit efforts and results

Posted on 2021-03-10 | by biathlonanalytics | Leave a Comment on Wierer’s Pursuit efforts and results

The guys from ExtraRunde, a great podcast about biathlon in German on Mondays and in English for some specials, were discussing that it almost seems that when Wierer starts far behind in the Pursuit her results are often better than when she has a good starting position. This feels to be a correct conclusion, but it is correct according to the data? Time to analyse.

Results

Let’s start by looking at all Wierer’s result in the current season so far:

Wierer’s Pursuit races by starting rank (bib) and places gained or lost

When we look at this same data but in a scatter plot we can draw a trendline that shows things a bit more clear:

Wierer’s starting rank -vs- places gained

So it appears that indeed when Wierer starts later in the Pursuit competitions, her results regarding catching up positions get better. But that’s only for 6 races. Now let’s do the same charts but for Wierer’s Pursuit races in the current and two previous seasons:

Same as above for three seasons (2021 still ongoing)

Now we have 19 races and the trend is still there. There is a bit of a catch with looking at the number of places gained: when you start first, there are only places to lose; when you start last, there are only places to gain. So this trend is kind of what you could expect: as there are more places to gain and less to lose you tend to gain more. Let’s look at all pursuit races since the 2018-2019 season and look at all athletes while removing the DNF’s etc.:

This shows the same trend, so we can confirm what we already figured out above, the more opportunities you have to gain positions, the more you will gain, and the other way around.

Other measurements

Can we look more specifically at particular measurements that can express Wierer’s performance, other than Bib and Rank, or even time behind at the start and at the finish? Is perhaps her shooting better if she starts further down, or her ski times? Her shooting does actually get worse the further behind she starts:

Wierer’s starting time -vs- total shooting percentage

And her skiing?

Wierer’s starting time -vs- ski/course time

The only thing I can say about her skiing is that when Wierer’s starting time behind increases the variation becomes a bit bigger. But more importantly, what goes both for shooting and skiing, it is fair to assume that as Wierer starts further behind based on worse results in the sprint, her shape is likely not at her peak. With that in mind, if her shape is not great, her skiing and shooting will also not be great, which could explain the shooting trend. Another fact to consider, which mostly impacts her shooting, is that the further back she starts, the more risk she will be taking to catch up to the lead, pushing a little harder on the skis, leading to more misses in the range.

Conclusion

I can say that yes, as the starts later, her number of places gained is higher. But this applies to all athletes. To say that she does better when she has more places to catch up makes sense as much for her as it does for anyone else.

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged pursuit, Wierer

All-time records for World Cup level pursuits

Posted on 2021-02-15 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on All-time records for World Cup level pursuits

At every major championship, there’s always the question of all-time records for pursuit performances. Let’s take a more detailed look at this. Pursuits are held since 1996–97 on World Cup level; there have been 185 men’s and 184 women’s pursuits in total. Records for a few of the earliest pursuits (1996–97 and 1997–98) don’t have bib numbers and/or time deficits and couldn’t be included here.

Men

Andreas Birnbacher holds the record for winning from furthest back (starting in 26th position), while Sven Fischer won with the biggest time gap at the start (1:36 min). Tarjei Bø once made second place with bib 44, which is a record for both biggest position and biggest time gain for a podium finisher (it’s also the biggest time gain overall, 2:14.4). Julien Robert has the record for the biggest improvement overall (50 positions).

Win from furthest back (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start Deficit
126BirnbacherAndreasGER
2011Hochfilzen-251:09.0
120DrachevVladimirBLR
2003Oestersund-191:18.0
118SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2020Kontiolahti-171:10.0
117SumannChristophAUT
2007Pokljuka-160:59.0
116BjoerndalenOle EinarNOR
2006Kontiolahti-150:48.0
115PoireeRaphaelFRA
1999Ruhpolding-140:47.0
113MaigourovViktorRUS
2001Oberhof-121:32.0
112MaigourovViktorRUS
1997Brezno-Osrblie (WCH)-110:48.0
111PoireeRaphaelFRA
1999Lake Placid-100:52.0
110FischerSvenGER
2004Oslo -91:36.0

Win from furthest back (time deficit)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start Deficit
110FischerSvenGER
2004Oslo -91:36.0
113MaigourovViktorRUS
2001Oberhof-121:32.0
120DrachevVladimirBLR
2003Oestersund-191:18.0
19BoeufAlexisFRA
2011Presque Isle ME-81:14.0
18FerryBjoernSWE
2010Whistler-71:12.0
118SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2020Kontiolahti-171:10.0
126BirnbacherAndreasGER
2011Hochfilzen-251:09.0
17BjoerndalenOle EinarNOR
2003Oslo -61:07.0
16SvendsenEmil HegleNOR
2011Oslo -51:04.0
110GreisMichaelGER
2008PyeongChang-91:01.0

Podium from furthest back (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
244BoeTarjeiNOR
2011Oslo-422:15.00:00.62:14.4
335FourcadeMartinFRA
2011Oslo-321:57.00:07.31:49.7
329KrcmarMichalCZE
2017Ruhpolding-261:33.00:19.51:13.5
126BirnbacherAndreasGER
2011Hochfilzen-251:09.0 1:09.0
325GrossRiccoGER
2001Hochfilzen-222:38.00:26.32:11.7
223ShipulinAntonRUS
2017PyeongChang-211:30.00:34.50:55.5
323ShipulinAntonRUS
2012Oestersund-201:08.00:03.31:04.7
222FourcadeSimonFRA
2013Khanty-Mansiysk-201:32.00:35.70:56.3
323KruglovNikolayRUS
2004Fort Kent -202:20.01:27.40:52.6
120DrachevVladimirBLR
2003Oestersund-191:18.0 1:18.0

Podium from furthest back (time deficit)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
244BoeTarjeiNOR
2011Oslo-422:15.00:00.62:14.4
325GrossRiccoGER
2001Hochfilzen-222:38.00:26.32:11.7
335FourcadeMartinFRA
2011Oslo-321:57.00:07.31:49.7
110FischerSvenGER
2004Oslo-91:36.0 1:36.0
113MaigourovViktorRUS
2001Oberhof-121:32.0 1:32.0
321PuurunenPaavoFIN
2003Khanty-Mansiysk (WCH)-182:16.00:56.31:19.7
314WolfAlexanderGER
2005Oberhof-111:25.00:06.51:18.5
120DrachevVladimirBLR
2003Oestersund-191:18.0 1:18.0
316AndresenFrodeNOR
2000Lahti-131:37.00:22.81:14.2
19BoeufAlexisFRA
2011Presque Isle -81:14.0 1:14.0

Biggest improvement overall (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
1060RobertJulienFRA
2005Oestersund-501:42.00:57.80:44.2
957PrymaArtemUKR
2017Oberhof-482:28.01:55.30:32.7
1158CattarinussiReneITA
1999Ruhpolding-471:52.00:52.70:59.3
956KruglovNikolayRUS
2006Hochfilzen-472:34.02:59.7-0:25.7
1459DostalRomanCZE
2003Hochfilzen-452:22.02:34.7-0:12.7
1256RostovtsevPavelRUS
1996Oslo -442:17.01:38.60:38.4
1760 Bailly-SalinsPatriceFRA
1996Oslo -432:25.02:08.80:16.2
1457HoferLukasITA
2015Khanty-Mansiysk-432:00.01:48.80:11.2
851TchepikovSergeiRUS
2002Oestersund-432:07.01:04.51:02.5
1052SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2018Nove Mesto-422:26.01:47.10:38.9

Biggest improvement overall (time)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
244BoeTarjeiNOR
2011Oslo -422:15.00:00.62:14.4
325GrossRiccoGER
2001Hochfilzen-222:38.00:26.32:11.7
642BjoerndalenOle EinarNOR
2000Lahti-362:41.00:33.72:07.3
335FourcadeMartinFRA
2011Oslo -321:57.00:07.31:49.7
2558MesotitschDanielAUT
2001Hochfilzen-334:00.02:23.91:36.1
110FischerSvenGER
2004Oslo -91:36.0 1:36.0
48RostovtsevPavelRUS
2001Hochfilzen-41:59.00:27.01:32.0
113MaigourovViktorRUS
2001Oberhof-121:32.0 1:32.0
1143RozhkovSergeiRUS
2004Oslo -322:30.00:58.61:31.4
948BjoerndalenOle EinarNOR
2007Khanty-Mansiysk-392:00.00:29.61:30.4

The biggest drops of all time: Vladimir Drachev (50 positions, Lillehammer 1996) and Jakov Fak (45 positions, Hochfilzen 2011).


Women

Martina Beck won from furthest back on the women’s side (bib 15), Magdalena Forsberg once overcame a deficit of 1:46 min (she started in second place in that race however). For podiums finishers, Florence Baverel-Robert and Olga Romasko hold the records for most positions and most time gained. In terms of overall improvement, Darya Domracheva has both records (48 positions, 2:30.9 time gain).

Win from furthest back (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start Deficit
115BeckMartinaGER
2000Oestersund-141:29.0
114BergerToraNOR
2013Antholz-Anterselva-131:08.0
111SimonJuliaFRA
2020Kontiolahti-100:57.0
110BeckMartinaGER
2003Khanty-Mansiysk (WCH)-90:58.0
110MakarainenKaisaFIN
2015Oestersund-90:52.0
110HenkelAndreaGER
2009Trondheim-90:43.0
19DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2014Sochi (Olympics)-80:32.0
18MedvedtsevaOlgaRUS
2002Soldier Hollow (Olympics)-71:03.0
18WilhelmKatiGER
2005Khanty-Mansiysk-71:03.0
18EckhoffTirilNOR
2020Kontiolahti-71:01.0

Win from furthest back (time deficit)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start Deficit
12ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
2001Oslo -11:46.0
115BeckMartinaGER
2000Oestersund-141:29.0
114BergerToraNOR
2013Antholz-Anterselva-131:08.0
17ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
2001Soldier Hollow-61:05.0
18MedvedtsevaOlgaRUS
2002Soldier Hollow (Olympics)-71:03.0
18WilhelmKatiGER
2005Khanty-Mansiysk-71:03.0
18EckhoffTirilNOR
2020Kontiolahti-71:01.0
110BeckMartinaGER
2003Khanty-Mansiysk (WCH)-90:58.0
111SimonJuliaFRA
2020Kontiolahti-100:57.0
15EkholmHelenaSWE
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-40:55.0

Podium from furthest back (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
332BaverelFlorenceFRA
2000Oslo-292:08.00:42.41:25.6
227DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2017Hochfilzen (WCH)-251:26.00:11.61:14.4
322SemerenkoVitaUKR
2018Oberhof-191:38.01:10.20:27.8
322BeckMartinaGER
2004Beitostolen-191:00.00:25.50:34.5
221ZubrilovaOlenaUKR
2003Oslo-191:00.00:03.60:56.4
321SolemdalSynnoeveNOR
2014Oberhof-181:55.01:11.70:43.3
220DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2014Kontiolahti-181:07.01:00.00:07.0
220WilhelmKatiGER
2005Oestersund-181:15.00:13.31:01.7
220WiererDorotheaITA
2015Oestersund-181:11.00:01.91:09.1
319BaillySandrineFRA
2004Lake Placid -161:26.00:51.00:35.0

Podium from furthest back (time deficit)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
313RomaskoOlgaRUS
1996Oslo-103:25.01:12.12:12.9
23KouklevaGalinaRUS
1996Oslo-12:35.00:34.12:00.9
12ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
2001Oslo-11:46.0 1:46.0
37BeckMartinaGER
2001Oslo-42:13.00:41.41:31.6
115BeckMartinaGER
2000Oestersund-141:29.0 1:29.0
332BaverelFlorenceFRA
2000Oslo-292:08.00:42.41:25.6
215BaillySandrineFRA
2005Khanty-Mansiysk-131:34.00:19.01:15.0
227DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2017Hochfilzen (WCH)-251:26.00:11.61:14.4
313ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
1999Oberhof-101:34.00:23.11:10.9
218GrubbenLindaNOR
2007Antholz-Anterselva (WCH)-161:17.00:07.11:09.9

Biggest improvement overall (position)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
553DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-483:10.00:39.12:30.9
552HolubcovaKaterinaCZE
2003Hochfilzen-472:44.01:06.31:37.7
752BrunetMarie LaureFRA
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-453:09.00:54.92:14.1
1457TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
2020Antholz-Anterselva (WCH)-432:01.01:30.10:30.9
1759HoegbergElisabethSWE
2015Hochfilzen-421:55.01:12.20:42.8
1859SemerenkoValentinaUKR
2020Ruhpolding-412:25.02:03.10:21.9
1960TofalviEvaROU
2015Oestersund-412:21.02:19.30:01.7
1757LiuXianyingCHN
2004Oestersund-402:24.02:49.0-0:25.0
1959TakahashiRyokoJPN
2000Oberhof-403:44.05:04.4-1:20.4
645PreussFranziskaGER
2019Oberhof-391:49.00:54.70:54.3

Biggest improvement overall (time)

RankBibFamily NameGiven NameNationYearLocationRank Diff.Start DeficitBehind (Finish)Time Gain
553DomrachevaDaryaBLR
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-483:10.00:39.12:30.9
752BrunetMarie LaureFRA
2009PyeongChang (WCH)-453:09.00:54.92:14.1
313RomaskoOlgaRUS
1996Oslo -103:25.01:12.12:12.9
23KouklevaGalinaRUS
1996Oslo -12:35.00:34.12:00.9
1125BriandAnneFRA
1996Oslo -143:55.02:03.51:51.5
12ForsbergMagdalenaSWE
2001Oslo -11:46.0 1:46.0
552HolubcovaKaterinaCZE
2003Hochfilzen-472:44.01:06.31:37.7
610TalanovaNadejdaRUS
1996Oslo -43:10.01:32.91:37.1
912ParamyguinaSvetlanaBLR
1996Oslo -33:24.01:47.41:36.6
48NiogretCorinneFRA
1996Oslo -42:58.01:22.31:35.7

The biggest drops of all time: Franziska Hildebrand (47 positions, Nove Mesto 2015) and Svetlana Mironova (46 positions, Hochfilzen 2017).

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged pursuit

The Queen of Pursuit

Posted on 2020-08-27 | by biathlonanalytics | Leave a Comment on The Queen of Pursuit

by
Puck Possessed

I did research on Pursuit races of the 2019-2020 season to find out who the real Queen of Pursuit was for the last season. Here’s a summary of my findings:

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged Puck Possessed, pursuit

Recent Articles

  • Most improved athletes this winter
  • New biathlon point system
  • Historic biathlon results create expectations. But what about points?
  • What do you expect? Practical applications of the W.E.I.S.E.
  • Introducing W. E. I. S. E: the Win Expectancy Index based on Statistical Exploration, version 1

Categories

  • Biathlon Media
  • Biathlon News
  • Long-term trends
  • Statistical analysis
  • Website updates

Archives by Month

  • 2022: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2021: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2020: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2015: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2013: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2012: J F M A M J J A S O N D

Search Articles