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Year: 2013

Who shoots better: Men or Women?

Posted on 2013-08-27 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Who shoots better: Men or Women?

According to my blog stats the question if men or women are the better shots has always been one of the top search keywords that point people to this site. I wrote a post about that a long time ago, but since it’s of high interest apparently I took a more detailed look at the gender differences in biathlon shooting.

Note: It’s difficult to make any definitive statements about shooting trends, because it all depends on what group of athletes you look at. There isn’t one single group which represents the strength of the whole field perfectly, so it will always be slightly imprecise.

2001
–02
2002
–03
2003
–04
2004
–05
2005
–06
2006
–07
2007
–08
2008
–09
2009
–10
2010
–11
2011
–12
2012
–13
Top 10+3.0-1.4+2.9+6.6-0.3+2.8-2.2+1.7-1.6+1.6-0.8+1.6
Top 20+2.6+1.0+3.0+2.2+1.3+1.9+0.7+0.4-1.9+2.0-0.5+1.2
Top 30+1.2-0.3+2.7+4.1+1.2+1.5-1.0-0.3-1.5+1.6-0.2+0.1
Top 40-0.5+0.3+3.0+2.3+0.7+0.7-2.2+1.0-1.3+1.0+1.6-0.1
Top 60-0.2+0.8-0.2+1.6+1.6+1.2-1.3+0.9-2.0+0.3+1.0+2.3
Top 100+0.2+1.9-0.1+0.5+2.3+0.6-0.1+0.6-2.4+0.2-0.1+2.2
Shooting percentage differences  (in %)    Men / Women   per selected group, last 12 years
Positive values: men were more accurate; Negative values: women were more accurate

During the last 12 seasons, the differences in non-team shooting accuracy between men and women have been small. For two seasons (2007–08 and 2009–10) women were better, in 2004–05, 2006–07 and 2010–11 men are ahead across the board. For most of the other seasons there is no clear picture, although men’s shooting results lead more of the selected groups (and often with bigger margins).


Last year, the shooting percentages for men and women were virtually identical for the top 30 or top 40, however men were over 2 % more accurate in the broader groups (top 60 or top 100). Overall, you probably have to give men a slight edge (of maybe 1 %), even though women were clearly better from 2007–08 to 2009–10.

2001
–02
2002
–03
2003
–04
2004
–05
2005
–06
2006
–07
2007
–08
2008
–09
2009
–10
2010
–11
2011
–12
2012
–13
Top 10+4.2+1.4+3.3+2.4+3.3+1.7+2.8+3.1+4.3+4.3+3.4+5.2
Top 20+3.7+1.5+2.4+1.7+2.6+3.2+3.0+3.2+2.9+3.3+3.4+3.5
Top 30+2.3+1.6+2.3+2.0+3.5+3.7+3.2+3.3+2.5+3.5+3.8+3.7
Top 40+2.3+2.3+2.0+2.2+3.7+3.4+2.7+3.4+2.5+4.1+4.2+3.5
Top 60+2.8+2.9+2.6+2.6+2.6+3.3+3.4+3.1+2.8+3.8+4.2+3.7
Top 100 +2.8+3.1+3.0+2.3+2.6+3.4+2.7+3.2+3.4+4.1+3.9+4.2
Male Shooting Time advantage  (in sec) per selected group, last 12 years

In terms of shooting time, the gender differences are much more obvious. Men shoot considerably faster. In fact, men have increased the gap from about 3 to 4 seconds in the last 12 years. 
Physical strength plays a small part in shooting (relative to their body weight the rifle (3.5 kg) is heavier for most women), but differences of 10 % and more in average shooting time are quite a lot. The large gap might partly be down to a different mental approach (risk taking/range strategy?).

If you combine shooting accuracy and shooting pace and look at the time lost at the shooting range, the gap between men and women becomes much bigger (about 20 s last season for sprints). However, at least half of that range time is spent on skis, so this comparison is unfair: women lose almost 2 seconds approaching and exiting the range and they ski the penalty loop about 3 seconds slower than men.

What’s the bottom line? Generally, men shoot better than women: they are not necessarily more accurate, but on average much quicker (in a sprint about 4*2 = 8 seconds only in “shooting time” last year).

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged shooting

World Cup point distribution

Posted on 2013-08-09 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on World Cup point distribution

Last season was quite unusual. Martin Fourcade and Tora Berger won the overall titles with record scores and record gaps to second place. How do the 2012–13 World Cup points compare to previous years and how has the point distribution developed since 2001–02?
Note: The World Cup points system was changed after 2007–08 (50, 46, 43, … → 60, 54, 48, …). Plus several minor changes in the number of dropped worst results.

The chart above shows how much of the possible World Cup points (last year: 1440p = 60p*24, 2 dropped scores) the season’s top 6 have won. Fourcade set a new record, claiming 1248 points (86.7 %), surpassing Raphael Poiree‘s previous mark, who had won 81.3 % of all possible points in 2003–04. Fourcade’s gap to second place was also unprecedented last year: 421 points, or 50.1 % more than Emil Hegle Svendsen.

Naturally, the 2008–09 season brought some big changes: with 10 more athletes awarded World Cup points, the share of points won by the men’s top 30 or top 40 decreased by roughly 10 % in one year. In general, the top athletes win slightly less points today than they did in 2001–02. The biggest differences in the share of won points occurred for the season’s top 10 (43.4 % → 32.3 %, -11.1 %) and top 20 (65.5 % →55.6 %, -9.9 %).

Tora Berger set a new record last season as well, winning 85.7 % of all points available. She beat Magdalena Neuner‘s record (84.4 %) from one year earlier. There are huge differences between the last two seasons though: 2011–12 was a hard fought battle between four (!) athletes who won at least 70 % of the max points, in 2012–13 second-placed Darya Domracheva only claimed 64 %. 

The points for the top female athletes didn’t decline as much as for the men. In 2001–02 the top 10 won 44.4 % of all points, in 2012–13 it was 37.1 % (-7.3 %). The top women win a slightly bigger share of all World Cup points (3-5 %), indicating weaker competition from lower ranked athletes. 

Generally, World Cup points are shared more broadly today compared to 12 years ago, which might point to more depth in World Cup fields. However, at least part of that is due to the changed points system. The 2012–13 season was extremely lopsided (for men and women alike); hopefully not the start of a trend but only a one-time anomaly.

Posted in Long-term trends | Tagged results

How to get on the podium in biathlon

Posted on 2013-07-27 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on How to get on the podium in biathlon

Last October, I looked at what kind of shooting and skiing results it usually takes to get on the podium in biathlon World Cup races, both overall and for each of the four disciplines (see podium ingredients for men and women). Now I was curious if those trends had changed at all during the last 12 years. Below, I split the results into four 3-season periods (2001–04. 2004–07, 2007–10, 2010–13, between 73-80 races each) to examine that a bit more closely. 

Note: The tables and charts show percentages for World Cup podium finishers for the respective time periods, i.e. how often first, second and third place had a certain number of shooting penalties or a specific course time rank.

The first thing you notice is how stable the charts are, unsurprisingly I suppose (the rules haven’t changed, the World Cup programme is almost the same). For the men, the skiing numbers hardly changed at all, 54.3 % of all podium finishers set a top 5 course time during 2010–13, a decade earlier it was 54.8 %;  the top 10 course time rate is virtually identical as well (76.5 % vs. 76.7 %). 


What has changed however are the shooting results. For 2001–04, 58.9 % of all podium athletes had 0 or 1 shooting errors. That percentage increased considerably until 2010–13: 65.8 % → 65.8 % → 71.8 %. It seems good shooting is more important than ever in men’s biathlon.

Shooting penaltiesSki rank
Men01234> 4123Top3 Top5 Top10 > 10
2001–04    29.729.2 21.5 10.04.1 5.5 14.6 10.0 11.9 36.554.876.723.3
2004–0733.332.520.8102.90.413.115.611.440.157.479.720.3
2007–1031.634.218.212.62.21.311.712.69.533.850.671.428.6
2010–1332.539.319.76.81.30.417.510.712.440.654.376.523
Shooting penalties / Ski ranks for all Podium finishers (non-team races) in % | Men

In general, the percentages for the women are quite similar, maybe more similar than you would expect (considering men and women compete on different courses). Unlike for the men, the percentage of great shooting for female podium finishers did not increase: during 2001–04 we had 61.2 % with 0 or 1 penalties, 60.3 % for 2010–13.

However, fast skiing is getting more important for the women. The percentage of female athletes with top 5 (50.2 % → 52.9 % → 53.2 % → 62.4 %) or top 10 course times (76.7 % → 78.3 % → 81.8 % → 88.0 %) among all podium athletes increased a lot in the last 12 years.

ShootingpenaltiesSkirank
Men01234> 4123   Top3     Top5   Top10   > 10
2001–04    29.729.2  21.5  10.0 4.1 5.5 14.6  10.0 11.9 36.554.876.723.3
2004–0733.332.520.8102.90.413.115.611.440.157.479.720.3
2007–1031.634.218.212.62.21.311.712.69.533.850.671.428.6
2010–1332.539.319.76.81.30.417.510.712.440.654.376.523.5
Shooting penalties / Ski ranks for all Podium finishers (non-team races) in % | Women

It seems as if the men’s and women’s competition has developed in slightly different directions. For the men, the importance of good shooting is more significant today than it was 10-12 years ago, while top ski speed has become even more important today on the women’s side.

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged results

Recent Articles

  • Most improved athletes this winter
  • New biathlon point system
  • Historic biathlon results create expectations. But what about points?
  • What do you expect? Practical applications of the W.E.I.S.E.
  • Introducing W. E. I. S. E: the Win Expectancy Index based on Statistical Exploration, version 1

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