Long term trends – real biathlon

Ski Speed over the last 14 years

Posted on 2015-12-28 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment

Here’s how the average ski speed of the World Cup top 40 evolved in the last 14 years. Keep in mind I can only approximate the speed through course times and course length; this is not a very precise method (minor mistakes should cancel each other out over the course of a season though). The top 40 athletes should be affected almost equally by possible methodical errors. Thus the speed values might be off by a few decimals, but the comparability season-to-season is still there.

The skiing speed of the men’s top 40 is getting (a lot) faster. Since 2001–02, both the median and the average speed of the top 40 increased by 1.7 km/h. The median skier in 2014–15 (25.8 km/h) was faster than the top skier in 2001–02 (25.1 km/h). All quartiles show a clear upwards trend. Percentage-wise, the ski speed of the median skier improved by about 7.1 %.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	25.1	25.3	24.9	25.3	25.2	25.6	26.1	25.7	25.9	25.7	25.9	26.4	26.6	26.2	+1.1
1st quartile	24.4	24.5	24.2	24.5	24.5	24.8	25.5	25.3	25.4	25.2	25.3	25.9	25.9	25.9	+1.5
Median	24.1	24.4	24.0	24.3	24.3	24.6	25.2	25.1	25.2	24.8	25.1	25.7	25.7	25.8	+1.7
3rd quartile	23.7	24.3	23.6	24.1	24.1	24.5	25.0	24.7	25.0	24.7	24.9	25.4	25.6	25.6	+1.9
Minimum	22.1	23.6	22.9	22.7	23.5	23.9	24.2	24.4	24.6	24.1	24.4	25.0	25.1	24.9	+2.7
Men	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	24.5	24.7	24.4	24.6	24.6	24.9	25.6	25.3	25.6	25.4	25.4	26.0	25.8	26.0	+1.5
Top 20 avg	24.3	24.5	24.3	24.5	24.5	24.8	25.4	25.2	25.4	25.2	25.3	25.9	25.8	25.9	+1.6
Top 40 avg	24.1	24.4	24.0	24.3	24.3	24.7	25.2	25.0	25.2	24.9	25.1	25.7	25.7	25.8	+1.7
Top 60 avg	23.7	24.3	23.9	24.1	24.2	24.5	25.1	24.8	25.1	24.7	25.0	25.5	25.6	25.6	+1.9

All values are average speed in km/h; Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The chart for the women looks distinctively different. The ski speed of the top 40’s median skier increased by 1.0 km/h since 2001–02 (+4.7%). During the first 5 years the speed actually declined. The fastest skier has been pretty stable (between 22.8 km/h and 23.1 km/h) for 6 years in a row (2007-2012), before hitting new all-time highs in the last two seasons.

The big ups and downs in the women’s chart could have reasons beyond pure ski form, e.g. changes in the women’s course difficulty year-to-year, or it could just be a statistical anomaly. I can’t fully explain the curve. It’s possible the courses have slowly been brought in line with the more difficult laps of the men during the first half of the last decade?

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	22.5	21.9	22.5	21.5	21.6	21.9	22.8	22.8	22.9	23.0	23.0	23.1	23.3	23.6	+1.1
1st quartile	21.9	21.2	21.3	21.0	20.9	21.1	21.9	22.3	22.3	22.2	22.1	22.3	22.6	22.8	+0.9
Median	21.3	21.0	21.0	20.6	20.6	20.8	21.5	21.9	22.1	21.9	21.8	21.9	22.4	22.3	+1.0
3rd quartile	21.0	20.7	20.7	20.4	20.4	20.7	21.3	21.5	21.8	21.3	21.5	21.8	22.2	22.1	-1.0
Minimum	20.2	20.2	19.8	19.2	19.8	19.9	20.8	20.8	20.8	20.8	21.0	21.0	22.0	21.7	-1.5
Women	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	22.0	21.3	21.6	21.1	21.0	21.3	22.1	22.5	22.4	22.4	22.4	22.6	22.8	23.0	+1.1
Top 20 avg	21.8	21.2	21.3	20.9	20.8	21.1	21.9	22.2	22.3	22.3	22.1	22.3	22.6	22.8	+1.0
Top 40 avg	21.4	21.0	21.0	20.6	20.6	20.9	21.6	21.9	22.0	21.8	21.8	22.0	22.4	22.4	+1.0
Top 60 avg	21.1	20.7	20.7	20.4	20.4	20.7	21.5	21.7	21.8	21.7	21.6	21.8	22.3	22.3	+1.2

All values are average speed in km/h; Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

Comparing skiing performances over longer periods is always tricky, certainly more difficult than comparing shooting results. The ski speed is not only affected by the courses (which is a major factor, since World Cup locations change every year), but also by weather. Three or four races during heavy snow fall for example will have a huge impact on the season average.
The increase of ski speed in just 14 years – 4.7% for the women, 7.1% for the men – is substantial. However, a good part of that probably comes down to technology: better working conditions due to waxing trucks, but also general advancements of ski manufacturers and modern waxes will have played its part. The top woman today (23.6 km/h) is just as fast or faster than the slowest male skier before 2006–07 (on easier courses though).

Shooting Time over the last 14 years

Posted on 2015-12-27 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment

Here’s a closer look at Biathlon World Cup shooting times over the course of the last 14 seasons. The shooting time in biathlon is the time between stepping on and off the shooting mat.

The men’s median shooter needed 32.0 s in 2001–02, 14 years later in 2014–15 only 28.3 s (-3.6 s). If you look at the top 40’s average, the shooting time improved a little less (-3.3 s). In percent, the top 40’s median shooting time improved by an incredible 11.6% in 14 seasons. Interestingly, most of the major improvements happened with the lower ranked athletes; the top 10 are only 1.8s quicker, but the top 40’s slowest shooter was 5.1s slower in 2001–02 compared to last season.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	39.5	37.9	36.7	37.4	38.1	33.9	34.1	34.1	33.3	33.7	32.4	32.5	31.9	34.4	-5.1
1st quartile	33.9	33.3	33.3	34.4	32.7	31.4	32.1	31.7	30.6	30.4	30.0	30.0	29.8	30.2	-3.7
Median	32.0	31.7	32.0	32.4	30.8	29.8	30.4	30.3	29.8	29.3	28.9	28.8	28.8	28.3	-3.6
3rd quartile	29.6	30.3	30.7	30.7	29.9	28.6	28.6	28.9	28.5	28.0	27.1	27.2	27.8	27.5	-2.1
Minimum	26.3	26.1	26.9	28.3	25.0	25.8	24.0	24.9	22.7	24.0	24.6	24.5	23.2	23.3	-3.0
	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	30.5	31.5	31.3	31.8	29.2	30.8	30.6	30.7	28.3	28.8	28.5	27.8	27.7	28.7	-1.8
Top 20 avg	30.9	31.5	31.6	32.2	30.3	30.0	29.9	30.3	28.9	28.9	28.5	28.2	28.4	28.1	-2.8
Top 40 avg	32.0	31.8	31.7	32.4	31.0	30.1	30.4	30.2	29.5	29.2	28.5	28.7	28.6	28.7	-3.3
Top 60 avg	32.4	32.2	32.3	33.0	31.5	30.8	30.5	30.7	30.1	29.7	29.2	29.3	28.8	29.1	-3.3

Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

On the women’s side, the shooting times improved across the board as well, although generally not by as much (median: -5.6%). The top 40’s median fell by 1.9 s (34.2 s → 32.3 s), the average by 2.7 s (34.8 s → 32.1 s). In 2014–15, the men’s median shooter was 4.0s faster than the women’s. Unlike the men, the women improved almost equally in all categories: the top 10 athletes are 2.4 s quicker, the top 60 athletes 2.9 s quicker than in 2001–02.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	40.5	41.4	44.0	41.6	38.9	38.6	39.8	42.7	38.8	39.2	39.5	38.8	34.9	38.0	-2.5
1st quartile	36.8	35.9	36.6	35.8	36.4	35.7	34.8	35.0	34.7	36.5	34.9	34.1	32.7	33.1	-3.6
Median	34.2	34.1	34.0	34.6	34.5	33.2	33.1	33.6	32.3	33.4	33.0	32.4	31.3	32.3	-1.9
3rd quartile	32.7	32.3	32.6	33.1	32.6	31.9	31.8	31.8	31.2	31.7	31.6	30.4	30.2	30.3	-2.4
Minimum	30.5	30.1	30.2	29.9	29.3	28.9	28.6	29.9	27.8	27.8	27.6	25.1	25.2	26.8	-3.7
	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	34.7	32.7	34.4	35.2	33.7	32.5	33.1	33.4	33.0	33.0	31.8	32.2	31.7	32.3	-2.4
Top 20 avg	34.2	33.4	34.4	34.2	33.5	33.1	33.4	33.5	32.5	33.0	32.3	32.3	31.3	32.3	-1.9
Top 40 avg	34.8	34.5	34.7	34.7	34.3	33.7	33.4	33.9	32.8	33.9	33.3	32.5	31.3	32.1	-2.7
Top 60 avg	35.3	35.4	35.1	35.8	34.5	33.9	34.2	34.1	33.2	33.9	33.4	33.0	31.8	32.4	-2.9

Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The gap between genders increased enormously in the last 14 years (for the top 40 from 2.2 s to 4.0 s). However, last season was somewhat of an outlier, the difference was a lot smaller in 2013–14. Ordinarily you wouldn’t expect such a huge gap, because physical strength is probably secondary for shooting pace. I’m not sure if the differences are mainly psychological (risk taking during shooting) or physiological (reaction time for example). The ski times are much closer on the men’s side, maybe gaining just a few second at the range is therefore considered more valuable in the men’s races?

Shooting percent over the last 14 years

Posted on 2015-12-25 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment

Two years ago I first looked at long-term trends in biathlon statistics, mainly to find out whether today’s athletes are better than previous generations, and how performance levels in the sport are developing in general. I now had another look at it, in order to see if anything had changed during the last two seasons (I haven’t included the currently ongoing season, because partial stats can be misleading). Here are the non-team shooting percentages over the last 14 seasons.
The stats are for the men’s and women’s overall World Cup top 40 (per season). I looked at their non-team percentages, split into quartiles. Quartiles divide the data into four equal groups (of 25 % each), i.e. the grey space between the 1st and 3rd quartile in the chart represents 50 % of the top 40 athletes. Unlike standard statistical methods, such as the average, the use of quartiles (like the median = 2nd quartile) is statistically a more robust method and more resistant to outliers.

In men’s World cup races, both the top 40’s median and the top 40’s average has improved by more than 3% since 2001–02. Last season was one of the best years shooting-wise, only the maximum (most accurate shooter) is clearly lower than in past years (in the first half of the last decade), but the median and 1st/3rd quartiles were at an all-time high in 2014–15, continuing the upward trend since the early 2000s. The worst shooter of the top 40 hits over 70% since 2009–10, before that the worst shooter always had a hit rate below 70%.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	91.1	92.3	92.7	92.0	92.4	92.1	88.9	89.3	90.0	90.9	88.9	90.6	91.9	90.3	-0.8
1st quartile	85.2	85.9	84.7	86.1	85.8	87.0	84.9	85.7	86.0	86.1	86.3	87.3	87.3	87.6	+2.4
Median	81.9	83.2	83.3	82.6	83.7	83.1	81.8	83.0	83.7	84.6	83.8	85.2	85.3	85.8	+3.8
3rd quartile	79.0	80.1	78.7	77.7	78.8	77.2	79.6	79.3	81.0	80.8	81.7	83.2	82.9	83.2	+4.2
Minimum	69.2	68.1	66.5	67.1	69.4	66.9	68.6	63.0	71.9	75.3	72.8	72.8	75.8	74.5	+5.3
	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	84.2	82.7	82.0	87.7	84.2	87.8	83.9	85.4	84.7	85.4	85.8	87.0	86.8	86.6	+2.4
Top 20 avg	83.5	84.3	82.2	84.5	84.4	85.8	83.8	83.6	83.6	84.7	84.6	86.5	85.7	86.2	+2.8
Top 40 avg	81.5	83.0	81.9	81.8	82.4	82.2	81.5	82.1	83.3	83.7	83.7	84.7	85.0	84.9	+3.4
Top 60 avg	81.0	81.5	80.3	81.1	82.2	82.2	81.2	81.5	81.9	82.6	82.5	84.1	84.3	83.9	+2.9

Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The women’s shooting results look very similar to the men’s. For the last 14 seasons they have been creeping higher, although not by quite as much. They improved by more than 2% (the mean is currently 2.3% higher, the average is 2.5% higher than 2001–02). For 2014–15, the men’s median shooter was slightly better than the women’s (85.8% vs. 84.7%), although there have been seasons where it was the other way around.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	88.9	92.4	89.0	90.3	93.3	91.5	91.8	92.6	91.0	89.0	94.3	95.1	91.1	92.6	+3.7
1st quartile	84.6	86.1	83.2	85.0	85.2	86.0	86.2	87.1	86.6	85.3	85.2	87.6	86.7	86.9	+2.3
Median	82.4	83.0	80.3	80.3	83.0	82.4	84.0	82.1	85.0	83.6	82.2	85.3	84.3	84.7	+2.3
3rd quartile	78.8	78.4	78.4	78.4	78.0	79.5	81.2	79.7	81.9	81.3	76.9	78.9	80.3	82.0	+3.2
Minimum	65.6	68.2	64.0	64.5	62.8	66.2	73.8	72.9	75.8	69.5	70.8	71.1	75.0	69.8	+4.2
	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	83.3	84.6	81.2	81.2	84.8	84.1	85.7	84.2	85.9	83.8	86.1	82.9	85.1	85.7	+2.4
Top 20 avg	81.3	84.3	81.3	82.6	83.7	83.9	84.4	84.4	85.7	82.8	84.4	83.3	85.3	84.8	+3.5
Top 40 avg	81.3	82.1	80.2	81.1	81.7	82.4	83.7	83.0	84.4	83.0	81.7	83.4	83.9	83.8	+2.5
Top 60 avg	80.4	80.7	79.4	79.8	81.1	81.4	82.1	81.9	83.6	81.8	81.3	81.7	82.8	82.7	+2.3

Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The shooting results in general continue to improve across the board. It’s impossible to say by how much exactly, results differ a lot depending on what group you look at or what method you use. To put a number on it, I’d say non-team shooting percentages are roughly 2-3% higher now than they were back in 2001–02. It’s unclear how much they can improve further before hitting a ceiling, because unlike ski speed, the hit rate has an absolute limit at 100%.

World Cup point distribution

Posted on 2013-08-09 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment

Last season was quite unusual. Martin Fourcade and Tora Berger won the overall titles with record scores and record gaps to second place. How do the 2012–13 World Cup points compare to previous years and how has the point distribution developed since 2001–02?
Note: The World Cup points system was changed after 2007–08 (50, 46, 43, … → 60, 54, 48, …). Plus several minor changes in the number of dropped worst results.

The chart above shows how much of the possible World Cup points (last year: 1440p = 60p*24, 2 dropped scores) the season’s top 6 have won. Fourcade set a new record, claiming 1248 points (86.7 %), surpassing Raphael Poiree‘s previous mark, who had won 81.3 % of all possible points in 2003–04. Fourcade’s gap to second place was also unprecedented last year: 421 points, or 50.1 % more than Emil Hegle Svendsen.

Naturally, the 2008–09 season brought some big changes: with 10 more athletes awarded World Cup points, the share of points won by the men’s top 30 or top 40 decreased by roughly 10 % in one year. In general, the top athletes win slightly less points today than they did in 2001–02. The biggest differences in the share of won points occurred for the season’s top 10 (43.4 % → 32.3 %, -11.1 %) and top 20 (65.5 % →55.6 %, -9.9 %).

Tora Berger set a new record last season as well, winning 85.7 % of all points available. She beat Magdalena Neuner‘s record (84.4 %) from one year earlier. There are huge differences between the last two seasons though: 2011–12 was a hard fought battle between four (!) athletes who won at least 70 % of the max points, in 2012–13 second-placed Darya Domracheva only claimed 64 %.

The points for the top female athletes didn’t decline as much as for the men. In 2001–02 the top 10 won 44.4 % of all points, in 2012–13 it was 37.1 % (-7.3 %). The top women win a slightly bigger share of all World Cup points (3-5 %), indicating weaker competition from lower ranked athletes.

Generally, World Cup points are shared more broadly today compared to 12 years ago, which might point to more depth in World Cup fields. However, at least part of that is due to the changed points system. The 2012–13 season was extremely lopsided (for men and women alike); hopefully not the start of a trend but only a one-time anomaly.

Top 10 athletes in the last 20 years

Posted on 2012-07-22 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment

I came across this interesting graphic on the website of the BBC, showing the composition of the Tour de France top 10 over the decades. Here is what the same graphic looks like for Biathlon World Cup results over the last 20 years.

For the men, Germany (54) had most top ten finishers since 1992–93, followed by Norway (44), Russia (38) and France (20). In total, 11 countries had top 10 athletes in the last 20 years. Most World Cup winners came from Norway (9), France (5) and Germany (4).

Germany also leads the women’s side with 65 top 10 spots since 1992–93. Interestingly France (31) comes second ahead of Russia (28), with Sweden in fourth (19). Athletes from 15 different countries claimed a top 10 finish. Most winners came from Sweden (7) and Germany (6).

It’s maybe surprising that more countries claimed a top 10 spot on the women’s side. Overall, the three most successful nations at Winter Olympics, Germany, Russia, Norway, also lead in biathlon. Just like ski jumping, the United States is yet to leave any mark on biathlon, having much more success in other traditional winter sports like alpine, cross-country, nordic combined or bobsleigh.

Ski Speed over the last 14 years

Shooting Time over the last 14 years

Shooting percent over the last 14 years

World Cup point distribution

Top 10 athletes in the last 20 years

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