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Month: November 2021

Improvement season-to-season

Posted on 2021-11-28 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Improvement season-to-season

Changes in the Total Performance Scores of regular World Cup athletes. The tables show improvement and decline in z-scores from this weekend’s Season Opening in Östersund compared to trimester 1 of last season (roughly December 2020, only athletes with at least 3 races in last winter’s trimester 1). You can do your own season-to-season comparisons for all stats in the Patreon bonus area.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

2021–22 z-Scores compared to Trimester 1 of 2020–21 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1TodevBlagoyBUL
20.84-0.53-0.940.23-1.06
2GowScottCAN
2-0.25-1.56-1.74-0.81-1.00
3DudchenkoAntonUKR
2-0.76-0.53-1.04-0.73-0.72
4BrownJakeUSA
2-1.05-0.531.02-0.65-0.54
5SchommerPaulUSA
2-0.11-1.21-0.15-0.44-0.50
6DesthieuxSimonFRA
2-1.53-1.21-0.72-1.34-0.49
7StvrteckyJakubCZE
2-0.78-0.180.95-0.40-0.44
8KobonokiTsukasaJPN
20.24-1.210.33-0.17-0.41
9DovzanMihaSLO
20.17-1.21-1.40-0.42-0.40
10ZahknaReneEST
20.45-0.870.430.07-0.37
11StroliaVytautasLTU
2-0.90-0.531.30-0.53-0.36
12TsymbalBogdanUKR
20.11-0.53-1.50-0.27-0.31
13StefanssonMalteSWE
2-0.211.190.860.32-0.29
14ClaudeFabienFRA
2-1.73-0.18-1.50-1.26-0.28
15GowChristianCAN
2-0.47-1.21-1.33-0.79-0.27
16LeitnerFelixAUT
2-1.08-0.18-0.55-0.76-0.27
17PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
2-0.54-0.87-0.82-0.67-0.24
18StalderSebastianSUI
2-0.04-0.18-0.97-0.19-0.22
19MagazeevPavelMDA
20.24-0.53-1.34-0.17-0.21
20LatypovEduardRUS
2-1.00-1.21-0.01-0.95-0.15
21SiimerKristoEST
21.030.500.310.79-0.10
22DombrovskiKarolLTU
2-0.35-0.180.21-0.23-0.09
23ClaudeFlorentBEL
2-0.22-0.530.28-0.25-0.08
24NelinJesperSWE
2-1.32-0.180.52-0.77-0.04
25FemlingPeppeSWE
2-0.470.16-1.29-0.38-0.02
26SmolskiAntonBLR
2-1.28-0.180.23-0.78-0.02
27LazouskiDzmitryBLR
2-0.20-0.181.04-0.05+0.01
28HornPhilippGER
2-0.860.16-0.90-0.57+0.05
29ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
2-1.50-0.870.64-1.06+0.10
30BoeTarjeiNOR
2-1.38-0.87-0.59-1.14+0.10
31BormoliniThomasITA
2-0.31-0.53-0.93-0.45+0.10
32BauerKlemenSLO
2-0.040.50-1.09-0.01+0.11
33SzczurekLukaszPOL
21.131.190.551.08+0.11
34GuigonnatAntoninFRA
2-1.210.16-0.39-0.71+0.11
35HiidensaloOlliFIN
2-0.210.160.800.02+0.12
36BanysLinasLTU
20.950.50-0.410.66+0.12
37EderSimonAUT
2-0.41-1.21-1.55-0.78+0.15
38SlotinsRobertsLAT
20.420.851.490.67+0.15
39SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2-2.000.160.44-1.08+0.15
40ReesRomanGER
2-0.900.16-0.15-0.50+0.18
41MukhinAlexandrKAZ
20.280.850.450.46+0.18
42VarabeiMaksimBLR
2-0.951.191.39-0.05+0.20
43BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
2-1.61-1.210.02-1.30+0.20
44IlievVladimirBUL
2-0.460.500.38-0.08+0.22
45JacquelinEmilienFRA
2-1.990.50-0.63-1.10+0.23
46OzakiKosukeJPN
2-0.180.851.970.38+0.26
47BalogaMatejSVK
21.350.50-0.140.92+0.27
48TrsanRokSLO
21.20-1.56-0.680.18+0.27
49WindischDominikITA
2-0.421.19-1.09-0.03+0.28
50LoginovAlexanderRUS
2-1.210.16-0.48-0.73+0.29
51LangerThierryBEL
2-0.100.50-0.080.08+0.30
52RasticDamirSRB
20.660.503.220.92+0.33
53BocharnikovSergeyBLR
2-0.820.85-0.79-0.33+0.34
54LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
2-0.71-1.56-0.91-0.98+0.34
55Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
2-1.36-0.18-0.71-0.94+0.39
56DollBenediktGER
2-0.98-0.18-0.28-0.67+0.39
57KrcmarMichalCZE
2-0.740.160.08-0.38+0.40
58FakJakovSLO
2-0.37-1.21-0.85-0.67+0.42
59HarjulaTuomasFIN
20.620.16-1.650.21+0.43
60YaliotnauRamanBLR
2-0.511.531.180.28+0.43
61WegerBenjaminSUI
2-0.37-0.870.17-0.45+0.43
62KomatzDavidAUT
20.16-0.530.540.01+0.45
63GuzikGrzegorzPOL
20.141.190.710.51+0.46
64BionazDidierITA
20.11-0.180.610.09+0.47
65DohertySeanUSA
20.020.85-0.240.23+0.48
66SimaMichalSVK
20.550.850.080.58+0.54
67DaleJohannesNOR
2-1.240.160.88-0.58+0.64
68TachizakiMikitoJPN
21.03-0.870.680.44+0.65
69EberhardJulianAUT
20.060.16-0.270.05+0.72
70SinapovAntonBUL
20.421.530.760.78+0.72
71EliseevMatveyRUS
20.71-1.21-0.260.04+0.85
72VaclavikAdamCZE
20.031.881.190.70+0.88
73PonsiluomaMartinSWE
2-1.532.56-1.12-0.29+0.91
74GerdzhikovDimitarBUL
20.452.560.151.03+0.99
75HoferLukasITA
20.14-0.530.930.04+1.00
76GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
20.590.85-0.800.50+1.21

Women

2021–22 z-Scores compared to Trimester 1 of 2020–21 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1BendikaBaibaLAT
2-0.74-0.87-0.34-0.73-0.83
2LieLotteBEL
2-0.31-1.28-0.67-0.63-0.61
3SolaHannaBLR
2-1.29-0.05-1.47-0.95-0.55
4NigmatullinaUlianaRUS
2-0.60-1.68-0.33-0.88-0.43
5MagnussonAnnaSWE
2-0.72-0.46-0.13-0.57-0.37
6DavidovaMarketaCZE
2-1.24-1.68-0.15-1.24-0.37
7KliminaDaryaKAZ
20.16-0.052.040.33-0.35
8JislovaJessicaCZE
2-0.37-0.46-0.51-0.41-0.30
9FialkovaIvonaSVK
2-0.481.180.350.10-0.25
10AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
2-1.46-1.28-0.44-1.29-0.23
11WeidelAnnaGER
2-0.09-2.09-0.74-0.75-0.23
12AvvakumovaEkaterinaKOR
20.27-0.46-0.060.02-0.22
13LescinskaiteGabrieleLTU
20.88-1.680.760.12-0.21
14CharvatovaLucieCZE
2-0.880.77-1.04-0.42-0.19
15BrorssonMonaSWE
2-1.09-0.46-0.84-0.88-0.18
16BescondAnaisFRA
2-1.32-0.05-0.29-0.83-0.17
17PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
2-0.44-0.46-0.11-0.40-0.16
18VittozziLisaITA
2-0.920.36-1.99-0.68-0.15
19EderMariFIN
2-1.05-0.051.45-0.46-0.14
20HauserLisa TheresaAUT
2-0.95-0.87-1.97-1.05-0.14
21KondratyevaAnastassiyaKAZ
21.80-0.873.001.17-0.13
22Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
2-1.21-0.05-1.16-0.87-0.10
23LienIdaNOR
2-0.92-0.051.01-0.43-0.07
24IrwinDeedraUSA
20.300.360.190.31-0.05
25Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
2-1.650.36-0.40-0.91-0.05
26TodorovaMilenaBUL
2-0.650.77-0.26-0.19-0.03
27KalkenbergEmilie AagheimNOR
2-0.25-0.05-0.71-0.25-0.01
28OebergElviraSWE
2-2.150.77-0.91-1.15+0.00
29DzhimaYuliiaUKR
2-0.74-0.05-0.23-0.48+0.03
30RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
2-1.63-0.46-1.32-1.25+0.05
31HerrmannDeniseGER
2-1.23-0.870.41-0.93+0.06
32PreussFranziskaGER
2-1.51-0.05-0.83-1.00+0.06
33KruchinkinaElenaBLR
2-0.35-0.05-0.35-0.26+0.07
34MironovaSvetlanaRUS
2-0.820.36-0.44-0.43+0.11
35KlemencicPolonaSLO
20.021.180.130.37+0.11
36TachizakiFuyukoJPN
20.06-0.870.93-0.11+0.12
37ChevalierChloeFRA
2-1.021.18-0.30-0.29+0.12
38LunderEmmaCAN
2-0.04-1.28-2.13-0.65+0.16
39EganClareUSA
2-0.51-0.460.51-0.37+0.17
40TomingasTuuliEST
2-0.31-0.46-0.01-0.32+0.18
41KuklinaLarisaRUS
2-0.58-0.05-0.61-0.43+0.19
42GasparinSelinaSUI
2-0.20-0.05-0.59-0.20+0.20
43PerssonLinnSWE
2-1.210.77-0.99-0.61+0.21
44HinzVanessaGER
2-0.31-0.46-0.13-0.33+0.21
45KocerginaNataljaLTU
20.410.361.160.49+0.24
46HettichJaninaGER
2-0.51-0.05-0.61-0.39+0.25
47LehtlaKadriEST
21.76-1.28-0.410.62+0.32
48TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
2-1.19-0.050.46-0.66+0.33
49EckhoffTirilNOR
2-1.631.18-0.82-0.71+0.34
50OebergHannaSWE
2-1.670.77-1.40-0.93+0.34
51Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
2-0.330.36-0.20-0.11+0.35
52KadevaDanielaBUL
20.610.77-0.060.58+0.38
53JankaErikaFIN
21.500.36-0.190.97+0.38
54BeaudrySarahCAN
21.26-1.28-0.900.27+0.41
55HaeckiLenaSUI
2-0.230.36-1.25-0.18+0.41
56KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
20.23-1.68-1.25-0.50+0.42
57MaedaSariJPN
2-1.013.23-0.570.27+0.42
58ZdoucDunjaAUT
20.51-1.28-0.40-0.11+0.42
59GasparinElisaSUI
2-0.120.36-0.120.02+0.49
60GasparinAitaSUI
20.040.36-0.800.03+0.49
61SchwaigerJuliaAUT
20.07-0.460.32-0.05+0.49
62ZukKamilaPOL
2-0.331.590.750.36+0.58
63SimonJuliaFRA
2-1.121.59-1.38-0.36+0.58
64WiererDorotheaITA
2-1.16-0.051.65-0.50+0.59
65MinkkinenSuviFIN
20.51-0.050.550.36+0.60
66HorvatovaHenrietaSVK
22.24-0.46-0.111.18+0.61
67RiederChristinaAUT
20.61-0.460.310.27+0.61
68SemerenkoValentinaUKR
20.14-0.05-0.86-0.03+0.62
69BekhEkaterinaUKR
20.391.59-0.950.58+0.66
70LeshchankaIrynaBLR
2-0.110.360.560.11+0.79
71ReidJoanneUSA
2-0.151.591.370.53+0.81
72TalihaermJohannaEST
20.881.181.121.00+0.83
73HachisukaAsukaJPN
21.711.591.891.70+1.08
74SabuleAnnijaLAT
22.910.77-0.011.94+1.20
75KazakevichIrinaRUS
2-0.693.640.530.71+1.31
Posted in Long-term trends, Statistical analysis | Tagged 2021–22 season, shooting, skiing

Recent Articles

  • Most improved athletes this winter
  • New biathlon point system
  • Historic biathlon results create expectations. But what about points?
  • What do you expect? Practical applications of the W.E.I.S.E.
  • Introducing W. E. I. S. E: the Win Expectancy Index based on Statistical Exploration, version 1

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