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Tag: skiing

Most improved athletes this winter

Posted on 2022-12-24 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Most improved athletes this winter

Season-to-season improvements in Total Performance Scores of regular World Cup athletes. The last row of both tables shows improvement and decline in overall scores for this season’s World Cup trimester 1 compared to performances in trimester 1 last season (only athletes with at least 5 races this winter). You can do your own season-to-season comparisons for all stats in the Patreon bonus area.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

2022–23 z-Scores compared to 2021–22 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1HartwegNiklasSUI
6-0.97-1.41-1.47-1.16-0.99
2AndersenFilip FjeldNOR
8-1.17-0.85-0.44-0.99-0.63
3ClaudeFlorentBEL
8-0.64-1.420.25-0.76-0.56
4GuzikGrzegorzPOL
50.07-0.070.590.09-0.50
5GiacomelTommasoITA
8-1.210.20-1.92-0.88-0.48
6LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
8-1.59-1.42-1.85-1.57-0.42
7BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
8-1.98-0.94-1.37-1.60-0.42
8PonsiluomaMartinSWE
8-1.490.40-0.91-0.87-0.36
9DohertySeanUSA
8-0.360.20-0.89-0.26-0.36
10ReesRomanGER
8-1.06-1.04-0.40-0.98-0.35
11StvrteckyJakubCZE
6-1.110.520.34-0.46-0.33
12IlievVladimirBUL
5-0.890.640.25-0.31-0.30
13StroliaVytautasLTU
8-1.01-0.91-0.42-0.91-0.28
14SimaMichalSVK
60.44-0.860.730.10-0.26
15LapshinTimofeiKOR
5-0.29-0.36-1.91-0.50-0.25
16KomatzDavidAUT
70.00-1.360.80-0.30-0.25
17MagazeevPavelMDA
60.09-0.821.950.05-0.25
18KarlikMikulasCZE
5-0.611.040.940.05-0.23
19HiidensaloOlliFIN
8-0.54-0.56-0.52-0.54-0.22
20TachizakiMikitoJPN
60.71-1.27-0.010.05-0.20
21DollBenediktGER
8-1.41-0.27-0.71-1.00-0.17
22ClaudeFabienFRA
8-1.48-0.75-0.76-1.18-0.16
23NelinJesperSWE
8-1.24-0.750.57-0.88-0.14
24KrcmarMichalCZE
8-0.98-0.75-0.12-0.81-0.08
25BrandtOskarSWE
5-0.901.350.65-0.06-0.07
26WrightCampbellNZL
50.160.29-0.240.15-0.06
27PerrotEricFRA
5-0.810.64-0.13-0.31+0.00
28ZahknaReneEST
70.52-0.80-0.130.06+0.07
29DudchenkoAntonUKR
7-0.62-0.68-1.15-0.70+0.08
30GuigonnatAntoninFRA
8-1.09-0.37-0.34-0.79+0.12
31Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
8-1.07-1.23-1.21-1.13+0.14
32LeitnerFelixAUT
8-0.31-1.04-0.71-0.57+0.16
33RunnallsAdamCAN
60.100.11-1.77-0.12+0.17
34LangerThierryBEL
6-0.350.80-0.29-0.01+0.20
35BoeTarjeiNOR
8-1.30-0.37-0.54-0.94+0.21
36SamuelssonSebastianSWE
8-1.23-0.75-0.38-0.99+0.21
37FemlingPeppeSWE
7-0.500.22-1.39-0.40+0.21
38ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
8-1.52-0.47-0.20-1.06+0.23
39SeppalaTeroFIN
7-1.030.22-0.75-0.63+0.23
40JacquelinEmilienFRA
8-1.610.11-0.89-1.02+0.24
41NawrathPhilippGER
5-0.62-0.200.21-0.40+0.31
42KuehnJohannesGER
7-1.260.67-0.47-0.60+0.32
43EderSimonAUT
5-0.41-0.67-0.52-0.50+0.32

Women

2022–23 z-Scores compared to 2021–22 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1KlemencicPolonaSLO
7-0.91-0.290.20-0.59-0.68
2VittozziLisaITA
8-1.29-0.92-1.28-1.18-0.47
3KinnunenNastassiaFIN
5-0.48-0.040.56-0.23-0.46
4GasparinAitaSUI
8-0.53-0.75-0.88-0.64-0.45
5ComolaSamuelaITA
7-0.23-1.01-0.04-0.43-0.44
6SimonJuliaFRA
8-1.38-1.10-1.79-1.34-0.42
7MinkkinenSuviFIN
7-0.26-1.22-0.96-0.62-0.39
8EderMariFIN
8-1.350.46-0.09-0.67-0.37
9Batovska FialkovaPaulinaSVK
8-0.71-0.23-0.42-0.53-0.36
10TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
8-1.33-1.01-0.48-1.13-0.31
11KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
8-0.35-1.01-1.12-0.63-0.26
12ChevalierChloeFRA
8-0.99-0.49-0.13-0.74-0.26
13VoigtVanessaGER
8-0.92-1.360.36-0.90-0.25
14LunderEmmaCAN
6-0.54-0.76-1.49-0.72-0.25
15ZdoucDunjaAUT
70.15-1.01-0.79-0.30-0.23
16ReidJoanneUSA
6-0.17-0.130.14-0.12-0.22
17SchwaigerJuliaAUT
7-0.370.010.06-0.20-0.21
18PerssonLinnSWE
8-0.98-1.01-1.30-1.03-0.20
19MakaAnnaPOL
5-0.15-0.370.51-0.13-0.15
20TachizakiFuyukoJPN
7-0.28-1.010.79-0.36-0.13
21MagnussonAnnaSWE
8-0.71-0.84-0.82-0.76-0.12
22IrwinDeedraUSA
6-0.19-0.130.13-0.13-0.10
23WiererDorotheaITA
8-0.98-0.75-1.78-1.01-0.10
24ZukKamilaPOL
6-0.310.370.37-0.03-0.09
25TomingasTuuliEST
6-0.850.620.60-0.25-0.06
26LienIdaNOR
7-1.160.120.51-0.59-0.05
27Herrmann-WickDeniseGER
8-1.37-0.49-0.58-1.02-0.03
28KalkenbergEmilie AagheimNOR
7-0.25-0.60-0.79-0.42-0.03
29DavidovaMarketaCZE
8-1.02-0.92-1.20-1.01-0.00
30BendikaBaibaLAT
7-0.830.73-0.66-0.36+0.02
31Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
8-1.22-0.49-1.13-1.00+0.04
32Haecki-GrossLenaSUI
8-0.940.46-1.09-0.55+0.04
33OebergElviraSWE
8-1.72-0.84-0.86-1.36+0.06
34HauserLisa TheresaAUT
8-0.93-0.84-1.44-0.97+0.16
35LieLotteBEL
7-0.38-1.22-0.13-0.59+0.17
36TodorovaMilenaBUL
7-0.540.32-0.32-0.26+0.19
37OebergHannaSWE
8-1.31-0.14-1.51-1.00+0.24
38PreussFranziskaGER
5-0.81-0.31-1.13-0.70+0.33
39StremousAlinaMDA
7-0.16-0.091.230.03+0.33
40JislovaJessicaCZE
7-0.15-0.70-0.49-0.35+0.40
41CharvatovaLucieCZE
6-0.401.25-0.880.02+0.42
42BlashkoDariaUKR
60.48-0.51-0.450.08+0.42
43FialkovaIvonaSVK
5-0.731.73-0.180.05+0.45
44BilosiukOlenaUKR
50.68-0.69-0.030.20+0.53
45NilssonStinaSWE
7-0.690.630.47-0.17+0.54

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged results, shooting, skiing

Fastest skiers in biathlon (2001 – 2021)

Posted on 2021-12-28 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Fastest skiers in biathlon (2001 – 2021)

The bars show a 7-race moving average for the percentage back from the top 30 median. Unfortunately, no data exists before the 2001–02 season.

Women

Men

Posted in Biathlon Media, Long-term trends, Statistical analysis | Tagged skiing

Improvement season-to-season

Posted on 2021-11-28 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Improvement season-to-season

Changes in the Total Performance Scores of regular World Cup athletes. The tables show improvement and decline in z-scores from this weekend’s Season Opening in Östersund compared to trimester 1 of last season (roughly December 2020, only athletes with at least 3 races in last winter’s trimester 1). You can do your own season-to-season comparisons for all stats in the Patreon bonus area.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

2021–22 z-Scores compared to Trimester 1 of 2020–21 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1TodevBlagoyBUL
20.84-0.53-0.940.23-1.06
2GowScottCAN
2-0.25-1.56-1.74-0.81-1.00
3DudchenkoAntonUKR
2-0.76-0.53-1.04-0.73-0.72
4BrownJakeUSA
2-1.05-0.531.02-0.65-0.54
5SchommerPaulUSA
2-0.11-1.21-0.15-0.44-0.50
6DesthieuxSimonFRA
2-1.53-1.21-0.72-1.34-0.49
7StvrteckyJakubCZE
2-0.78-0.180.95-0.40-0.44
8KobonokiTsukasaJPN
20.24-1.210.33-0.17-0.41
9DovzanMihaSLO
20.17-1.21-1.40-0.42-0.40
10ZahknaReneEST
20.45-0.870.430.07-0.37
11StroliaVytautasLTU
2-0.90-0.531.30-0.53-0.36
12TsymbalBogdanUKR
20.11-0.53-1.50-0.27-0.31
13StefanssonMalteSWE
2-0.211.190.860.32-0.29
14ClaudeFabienFRA
2-1.73-0.18-1.50-1.26-0.28
15GowChristianCAN
2-0.47-1.21-1.33-0.79-0.27
16LeitnerFelixAUT
2-1.08-0.18-0.55-0.76-0.27
17PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
2-0.54-0.87-0.82-0.67-0.24
18StalderSebastianSUI
2-0.04-0.18-0.97-0.19-0.22
19MagazeevPavelMDA
20.24-0.53-1.34-0.17-0.21
20LatypovEduardRUS
2-1.00-1.21-0.01-0.95-0.15
21SiimerKristoEST
21.030.500.310.79-0.10
22DombrovskiKarolLTU
2-0.35-0.180.21-0.23-0.09
23ClaudeFlorentBEL
2-0.22-0.530.28-0.25-0.08
24NelinJesperSWE
2-1.32-0.180.52-0.77-0.04
25FemlingPeppeSWE
2-0.470.16-1.29-0.38-0.02
26SmolskiAntonBLR
2-1.28-0.180.23-0.78-0.02
27LazouskiDzmitryBLR
2-0.20-0.181.04-0.05+0.01
28HornPhilippGER
2-0.860.16-0.90-0.57+0.05
29ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
2-1.50-0.870.64-1.06+0.10
30BoeTarjeiNOR
2-1.38-0.87-0.59-1.14+0.10
31BormoliniThomasITA
2-0.31-0.53-0.93-0.45+0.10
32BauerKlemenSLO
2-0.040.50-1.09-0.01+0.11
33SzczurekLukaszPOL
21.131.190.551.08+0.11
34GuigonnatAntoninFRA
2-1.210.16-0.39-0.71+0.11
35HiidensaloOlliFIN
2-0.210.160.800.02+0.12
36BanysLinasLTU
20.950.50-0.410.66+0.12
37EderSimonAUT
2-0.41-1.21-1.55-0.78+0.15
38SlotinsRobertsLAT
20.420.851.490.67+0.15
39SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2-2.000.160.44-1.08+0.15
40ReesRomanGER
2-0.900.16-0.15-0.50+0.18
41MukhinAlexandrKAZ
20.280.850.450.46+0.18
42VarabeiMaksimBLR
2-0.951.191.39-0.05+0.20
43BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
2-1.61-1.210.02-1.30+0.20
44IlievVladimirBUL
2-0.460.500.38-0.08+0.22
45JacquelinEmilienFRA
2-1.990.50-0.63-1.10+0.23
46OzakiKosukeJPN
2-0.180.851.970.38+0.26
47BalogaMatejSVK
21.350.50-0.140.92+0.27
48TrsanRokSLO
21.20-1.56-0.680.18+0.27
49WindischDominikITA
2-0.421.19-1.09-0.03+0.28
50LoginovAlexanderRUS
2-1.210.16-0.48-0.73+0.29
51LangerThierryBEL
2-0.100.50-0.080.08+0.30
52RasticDamirSRB
20.660.503.220.92+0.33
53BocharnikovSergeyBLR
2-0.820.85-0.79-0.33+0.34
54LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
2-0.71-1.56-0.91-0.98+0.34
55Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
2-1.36-0.18-0.71-0.94+0.39
56DollBenediktGER
2-0.98-0.18-0.28-0.67+0.39
57KrcmarMichalCZE
2-0.740.160.08-0.38+0.40
58FakJakovSLO
2-0.37-1.21-0.85-0.67+0.42
59HarjulaTuomasFIN
20.620.16-1.650.21+0.43
60YaliotnauRamanBLR
2-0.511.531.180.28+0.43
61WegerBenjaminSUI
2-0.37-0.870.17-0.45+0.43
62KomatzDavidAUT
20.16-0.530.540.01+0.45
63GuzikGrzegorzPOL
20.141.190.710.51+0.46
64BionazDidierITA
20.11-0.180.610.09+0.47
65DohertySeanUSA
20.020.85-0.240.23+0.48
66SimaMichalSVK
20.550.850.080.58+0.54
67DaleJohannesNOR
2-1.240.160.88-0.58+0.64
68TachizakiMikitoJPN
21.03-0.870.680.44+0.65
69EberhardJulianAUT
20.060.16-0.270.05+0.72
70SinapovAntonBUL
20.421.530.760.78+0.72
71EliseevMatveyRUS
20.71-1.21-0.260.04+0.85
72VaclavikAdamCZE
20.031.881.190.70+0.88
73PonsiluomaMartinSWE
2-1.532.56-1.12-0.29+0.91
74GerdzhikovDimitarBUL
20.452.560.151.03+0.99
75HoferLukasITA
20.14-0.530.930.04+1.00
76GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
20.590.85-0.800.50+1.21

Women

2021–22 z-Scores compared to Trimester 1 of 2020–21 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1BendikaBaibaLAT
2-0.74-0.87-0.34-0.73-0.83
2LieLotteBEL
2-0.31-1.28-0.67-0.63-0.61
3SolaHannaBLR
2-1.29-0.05-1.47-0.95-0.55
4NigmatullinaUlianaRUS
2-0.60-1.68-0.33-0.88-0.43
5MagnussonAnnaSWE
2-0.72-0.46-0.13-0.57-0.37
6DavidovaMarketaCZE
2-1.24-1.68-0.15-1.24-0.37
7KliminaDaryaKAZ
20.16-0.052.040.33-0.35
8JislovaJessicaCZE
2-0.37-0.46-0.51-0.41-0.30
9FialkovaIvonaSVK
2-0.481.180.350.10-0.25
10AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
2-1.46-1.28-0.44-1.29-0.23
11WeidelAnnaGER
2-0.09-2.09-0.74-0.75-0.23
12AvvakumovaEkaterinaKOR
20.27-0.46-0.060.02-0.22
13LescinskaiteGabrieleLTU
20.88-1.680.760.12-0.21
14CharvatovaLucieCZE
2-0.880.77-1.04-0.42-0.19
15BrorssonMonaSWE
2-1.09-0.46-0.84-0.88-0.18
16BescondAnaisFRA
2-1.32-0.05-0.29-0.83-0.17
17PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
2-0.44-0.46-0.11-0.40-0.16
18VittozziLisaITA
2-0.920.36-1.99-0.68-0.15
19EderMariFIN
2-1.05-0.051.45-0.46-0.14
20HauserLisa TheresaAUT
2-0.95-0.87-1.97-1.05-0.14
21KondratyevaAnastassiyaKAZ
21.80-0.873.001.17-0.13
22Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
2-1.21-0.05-1.16-0.87-0.10
23LienIdaNOR
2-0.92-0.051.01-0.43-0.07
24IrwinDeedraUSA
20.300.360.190.31-0.05
25Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
2-1.650.36-0.40-0.91-0.05
26TodorovaMilenaBUL
2-0.650.77-0.26-0.19-0.03
27KalkenbergEmilie AagheimNOR
2-0.25-0.05-0.71-0.25-0.01
28OebergElviraSWE
2-2.150.77-0.91-1.15+0.00
29DzhimaYuliiaUKR
2-0.74-0.05-0.23-0.48+0.03
30RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
2-1.63-0.46-1.32-1.25+0.05
31HerrmannDeniseGER
2-1.23-0.870.41-0.93+0.06
32PreussFranziskaGER
2-1.51-0.05-0.83-1.00+0.06
33KruchinkinaElenaBLR
2-0.35-0.05-0.35-0.26+0.07
34MironovaSvetlanaRUS
2-0.820.36-0.44-0.43+0.11
35KlemencicPolonaSLO
20.021.180.130.37+0.11
36TachizakiFuyukoJPN
20.06-0.870.93-0.11+0.12
37ChevalierChloeFRA
2-1.021.18-0.30-0.29+0.12
38LunderEmmaCAN
2-0.04-1.28-2.13-0.65+0.16
39EganClareUSA
2-0.51-0.460.51-0.37+0.17
40TomingasTuuliEST
2-0.31-0.46-0.01-0.32+0.18
41KuklinaLarisaRUS
2-0.58-0.05-0.61-0.43+0.19
42GasparinSelinaSUI
2-0.20-0.05-0.59-0.20+0.20
43PerssonLinnSWE
2-1.210.77-0.99-0.61+0.21
44HinzVanessaGER
2-0.31-0.46-0.13-0.33+0.21
45KocerginaNataljaLTU
20.410.361.160.49+0.24
46HettichJaninaGER
2-0.51-0.05-0.61-0.39+0.25
47LehtlaKadriEST
21.76-1.28-0.410.62+0.32
48TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
2-1.19-0.050.46-0.66+0.33
49EckhoffTirilNOR
2-1.631.18-0.82-0.71+0.34
50OebergHannaSWE
2-1.670.77-1.40-0.93+0.34
51Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
2-0.330.36-0.20-0.11+0.35
52KadevaDanielaBUL
20.610.77-0.060.58+0.38
53JankaErikaFIN
21.500.36-0.190.97+0.38
54BeaudrySarahCAN
21.26-1.28-0.900.27+0.41
55HaeckiLenaSUI
2-0.230.36-1.25-0.18+0.41
56KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
20.23-1.68-1.25-0.50+0.42
57MaedaSariJPN
2-1.013.23-0.570.27+0.42
58ZdoucDunjaAUT
20.51-1.28-0.40-0.11+0.42
59GasparinElisaSUI
2-0.120.36-0.120.02+0.49
60GasparinAitaSUI
20.040.36-0.800.03+0.49
61SchwaigerJuliaAUT
20.07-0.460.32-0.05+0.49
62ZukKamilaPOL
2-0.331.590.750.36+0.58
63SimonJuliaFRA
2-1.121.59-1.38-0.36+0.58
64WiererDorotheaITA
2-1.16-0.051.65-0.50+0.59
65MinkkinenSuviFIN
20.51-0.050.550.36+0.60
66HorvatovaHenrietaSVK
22.24-0.46-0.111.18+0.61
67RiederChristinaAUT
20.61-0.460.310.27+0.61
68SemerenkoValentinaUKR
20.14-0.05-0.86-0.03+0.62
69BekhEkaterinaUKR
20.391.59-0.950.58+0.66
70LeshchankaIrynaBLR
2-0.110.360.560.11+0.79
71ReidJoanneUSA
2-0.151.591.370.53+0.81
72TalihaermJohannaEST
20.881.181.121.00+0.83
73HachisukaAsukaJPN
21.711.591.891.70+1.08
74SabuleAnnijaLAT
22.910.77-0.011.94+1.20
75KazakevichIrinaRUS
2-0.693.640.530.71+1.31
Posted in Long-term trends, Statistical analysis | Tagged 2021–22 season, shooting, skiing

Overall performance scores, season-to-season improvements

Posted on 2021-01-19 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Overall performance scores, season-to-season improvements

Last weekend’s mass starts marked the halfway point of the season (13 of 26 races are done). This is probably a good time to take another look at the overall performances this winter. Below, I listed the season-to-season changes in the Overall Performance Score of regular World Cup athletes (at least 8 races in the last two seasons), plus the current top 15 per gender (full results for the entire field here: men & women). You can do your own season-to-season comparisons for all stats in the Patreon bonus area.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

It’s always interesting to me how accurately this very theoretical method reflects the current World Cup standings. For the men, the top 2, Johannes Thingnes Bø and Sturla Holm Lægreid, are predicted correctly – only through skiing and shooting stats, without taking a single race result into account. I think that’s pretty good. Twelve of the top 15 come within two positions of their current World Cup rank.

Quentin Fillon Maillet is overestimated, in large parts because he forgot to do a penalty loop in the Oberhof sprint (which essentially ruined two races for him). It’s no surprise that something like that isn’t reflected here. Arnd Peiffer is ranked four positions higher than his current World Cup rank, however, he missed two races in Hochfilzen last month and his average race position (14.7) would rank him 9th overall, therefore this ranking is not a bad estimation of his form this season.

Top 15 Overall performance score (z-Scores) | Non-Team events 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
131-2.09-0.65-0.67-1.50
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
132-1.45-1.49-0.77-1.38
3Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
127-1.49-1.04-1.14-1.32
4BoeTarjeiNOR
133-1.74-0.85-0.22-1.30
5JacquelinEmilienFRA
136-1.44-1.00-1.26-1.29
6DaleJohannesNOR
134-1.83-0.800.27-1.28
7SamuelssonSebastianSWE
135-1.51-1.05-0.30-1.23
8PonsiluomaMartinSWE
138-1.73-0.11-1.14-1.19
9PeifferArndGER
1113-1.33-1.10-0.53-1.16
10LesserErikGER
1311-1.18-1.00-1.29-1.14
11FakJakovSLO
139-1.09-1.29-0.87-1.12
12HoferLukasITA
1310-1.47-0.46-0.78-1.10
13DollBenediktGER
1312-1.28-0.75-0.97-1.09
14ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
1215-1.32-0.93-0.27-1.08
15LoginovAlexanderRUS
1219-1.31-0.71-0.64-1.06

Looking at changes season-to-season, the Swedish duo Martin Ponsiluoma and Sebastian Samuelsson are the most improved biathletes, mainly due to their new found ski speed. Lukas Hofer comes third; he had a very impressive two weeks in Oberhof (top 6 results in all four non-team races). Benjamin Weger made his first podium in almost eight years last Sunday (his current non-team percentage is at an all-time high, 88.5%); he is the fourth most improved athlete right now.

2020–21 z-Scores compared to 2019–20 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1PonsiluomaMartinSWE
13-1.73-0.11-1.14-1.19-0.69
2SamuelssonSebastianSWE
13-1.51-1.05-0.30-1.23-0.56
3HoferLukasITA
13-1.47-0.46-0.78-1.10-0.44
4WegerBenjaminSUI
13-1.06-0.95-0.54-0.96-0.34
5BocharnikovSergeyBLR
12-1.00-0.39-0.37-0.75-0.33
6SimaMichalSVK
90.24-0.77-0.38-0.13-0.31
7EliseevMatveyRUS
13-0.82-1.15-1.10-0.95-0.28
8GowChristianCAN
11-0.36-1.16-0.68-0.63-0.27
9LatypovEduardRUS
13-1.14-0.360.08-0.77-0.26
10HasillaTomasSVK
80.190.38-0.030.22-0.26
11FakJakovSLO
13-1.09-1.29-0.87-1.12-0.25
12SmolskiAntonBLR
11-1.17-0.24-0.11-0.77-0.21
13DaleJohannesNOR
13-1.83-0.800.27-1.28-0.21
14EderSimonAUT
13-0.50-1.64-1.33-0.93-0.15
15JacquelinEmilienFRA
13-1.44-1.00-1.26-1.29-0.14
16KrcmarMichalCZE
9-0.83-1.100.03-0.80-0.11
17LangerThierryBEL
9-0.22-0.360.47-0.17-0.11
18PeifferArndGER
11-1.33-1.10-0.53-1.16-0.11
19BormoliniThomasITA
8-0.72-0.74-0.41-0.69-0.10
20ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
12-1.32-0.93-0.27-1.08-0.10
21NordgrenLeifUSA
9-0.31-0.52-0.21-0.36-0.10
22ClaudeFabienFRA
13-1.37-0.01-0.85-0.92-0.10
23NelinJesperSWE
11-1.400.240.01-0.75-0.10
24BoeTarjeiNOR
13-1.74-0.85-0.22-1.30-0.08
25DombrovskiKarolLTU
10-0.14-0.820.48-0.26-0.08
26DollBenediktGER
13-1.28-0.75-0.97-1.09-0.06
27DovzanMihaSLO
90.40-0.69-1.24-0.11-0.06
28WindischDominikITA
9-0.94-0.04-0.29-0.60-0.05
29RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
12-1.14-0.06-0.30-0.73-0.04
30GuigonnatAntoninFRA
13-0.90-0.80-0.43-0.82-0.02
31LeitnerFelixAUT
11-0.93-0.730.73-0.68+0.00
32SeppalaTeroFIN
11-1.000.07-0.02-0.57+0.03
33Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
12-1.49-1.04-1.14-1.32+0.04
34DohertySeanUSA
11-0.34-0.36-0.60-0.38+0.08
35YaliotnauRamanBLR
10-0.920.59-0.03-0.37+0.08
36LoginovAlexanderRUS
12-1.31-0.71-0.64-1.06+0.10
37PrymaArtemUKR
11-0.73-0.24-0.87-0.60+0.10
38ErmitsKalevEST
90.020.27-0.110.07+0.11
39BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
13-2.09-0.65-0.67-1.50+0.11
40StroliaVytautasLTU
10-0.42-0.110.16-0.26+0.11
41FemlingPeppeSWE
12-0.19-0.39-1.04-0.35+0.14
42IlievVladimirBUL
8-0.880.25-0.07-0.45+0.14
43DesthieuxSimonFRA
13-1.20-0.51-0.80-0.95+0.15
44EberhardJulianAUT
8-1.130.05-0.30-0.69+0.17
45MoravecOndrejCZE
10-0.34-0.77-0.75-0.51+0.20
46PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
11-0.69-0.17-1.19-0.60+0.20
47StvrteckyJakubCZE
10-0.981.081.28-0.11+0.21
48GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
8-0.42-0.93-0.46-0.58+0.22
49KuehnJohannesGER
9-1.23-0.040.57-0.67+0.24
50ClaudeFlorentBEL
9-0.48-0.110.92-0.21+0.25
51TrsanRokSLO
80.63-0.74-0.920.05+0.34
52GowScottCAN
90.14-0.11-1.12-0.08+0.38
53GuzikGrzegorzPOL
10-0.060.73-0.460.12+0.38


Women

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Røiseland tops the women’s ranking, even though Tiril Eckhoff has won 6 out of 13 races so far. It’s a bit surprising that Eckhoff is only ranked third. Her overall season statistics are still affected by her very poor season opener in Kontiolahti, where she failed to make the World Cup points in both races.

Eckhoff’s ranking could be an argument that the best and worst one/two/three data points should be thrown out to better reflect an athlete’s expected standard performance. Presumably, the ranking would then no longer correlate as closely to the current World Cup standings though. Overall, 13 of the top 15 come within two positions of their current World Cup rank; no one in the top 8 is off by more than one position.

Top 15 Overall performance score (z-Scores) | Non-Team events 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
131-1.51-0.88-1.18-1.29
2OebergHannaSWE
133-1.20-0.97-1.82-1.21
3EckhoffTirilNOR
132-1.51-0.64-0.53-1.14
4WiererDorotheaITA
134-0.94-1.26-1.56-1.10
5OebergElviraSWE
136-1.32-0.64-0.80-1.06
6PreussFranziskaGER
135-1.17-0.73-1.24-1.05
7HauserLisa TheresaAUT
138-1.15-0.73-1.03-1.02
8AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
137-1.12-1.02-0.42-1.01
9SimonJuliaFRA
1312-1.19-0.12-1.75-0.94
10Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
1314-1.39-0.31-0.14-0.93
11DavidovaMarketaCZE
139-1.38-0.35-0.07-0.93
12HerrmannDeniseGER
1311-1.38-0.16-0.52-0.93
13TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
1213-1.29-0.51-0.05-0.91
14PerssonLinnSWE
1315-0.98-0.78-0.25-0.84
15KnottenKarolineNOR
1316-0.47-1.31-1.30-0.81

Just like on the men’s side, the most improved skier, Dzinara Alimbekava, is also the most improved biathlete overall, confirming again that ski speed is by far the most important aspect of the sport – maybe not in a single race, but certainly if you look at results over longer periods. Elvira Öberg and Tuuli Tomingas come second and third. Monika Hojnisz-Staręga suffered one of the biggest declines season-to-season, however, after an extremely poor December, she was much improved in Oberhof.

2020–21 z-Scores compared to 2019–20 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
13-1.12-1.02-0.42-1.01-0.93
2OebergElviraSWE
13-1.32-0.64-0.80-1.06-0.54
3TomingasTuuliEST
10-0.66-0.390.16-0.48-0.54
4ZdoucDunjaAUT
13-0.33-1.07-0.30-0.54-0.38
5HettichJaninaGER
13-0.50-1.26-0.06-0.67-0.31
6ReidJoanneUSA
9-0.46-0.510.77-0.33-0.30
7KnottenKarolineNOR
13-0.47-1.31-1.30-0.81-0.28
8ColomboCarolineFRA
11-0.76-0.29-0.49-0.59-0.26
9HauserLisa TheresaAUT
13-1.15-0.73-1.03-1.02-0.23
10MinkkinenSuviFIN
90.03-0.59-0.92-0.27-0.20
11MironovaSvetlanaRUS
10-1.06-0.18-0.81-0.78-0.19
12BlashkoDaryaUKR
10-0.31-1.320.17-0.55-0.16
13KlemencicPolonaSLO
80.070.36-0.060.14-0.14
14SolaHannaBLR
11-1.130.95-0.97-0.51-0.14
15DavidovaMarketaCZE
13-1.38-0.35-0.07-0.93-0.14
16LunderEmmaCAN
13-0.52-1.02-1.15-0.74-0.13
17Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
13-1.39-0.31-0.14-0.93-0.08
18OebergHannaSWE
13-1.20-0.97-1.82-1.21-0.07
19RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
13-1.51-0.88-1.18-1.29-0.05
20SchwaigerJuliaAUT
10-0.60-0.59-0.01-0.53-0.05
21SimonJuliaFRA
13-1.19-0.12-1.75-0.94-0.05
22MaedaSariJPN
9-0.490.600.21-0.09-0.05
23TodorovaMilenaBUL
10-0.610.010.20-0.33-0.03
24BrorssonMonaSWE
11-0.72-0.77-0.62-0.72-0.03
25PerssonLinnSWE
13-0.98-0.78-0.25-0.84-0.03
26TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
12-1.29-0.51-0.05-0.91-0.01
27HaeckiLenaSUI
11-0.70-0.17-1.61-0.66-0.01
28KryukoIrynaBLR
8-0.79-0.860.97-0.60+0.00
29WiererDorotheaITA
13-0.94-1.26-1.56-1.10+0.01
30GasparinElisaSUI
10-0.55-0.12-0.84-0.46+0.02
31PreussFranziskaGER
13-1.17-0.73-1.24-1.05+0.02
32EckhoffTirilNOR
13-1.51-0.64-0.53-1.14+0.03
33TachizakiFuyukoJPN
10-0.32-0.520.64-0.27+0.05
34KruchinkinaElenaBLR
13-0.91-0.210.87-0.49+0.06
35ChevalierChloeFRA
11-0.930.000.75-0.46+0.07
36JislovaJessicaCZE
9-0.400.040.27-0.19+0.08
37FrolinaAnnaKOR
9-0.160.44-0.36-0.01+0.10
38GasparinAitaSUI
10-0.38-0.59-0.85-0.50+0.10
39ZukKamilaPOL
10-0.810.021.11-0.34+0.10
40SkottheimJohannaSWE
11-0.41-0.96-0.96-0.64+0.10
41BescondAnaisFRA
13-1.03-0.400.19-0.70+0.11
42GasparinSelinaSUI
9-1.100.200.18-0.57+0.11
43EderMariFIN
9-1.170.281.25-0.46+0.11
44BelchenkoYelizavetaKAZ
80.41-0.59-0.120.05+0.12
45HinzVanessaGER
10-0.58-0.86-0.33-0.63+0.12
46CharvatovaLucieCZE
9-1.031.50-0.93-0.28+0.13
47EganClareUSA
13-0.73-0.500.66-0.50+0.14
48HerrmannDeniseGER
13-1.38-0.16-0.52-0.93+0.15
49TalihaermJohannaEST
9-0.25-0.190.93-0.09+0.15
50DzhimaYuliiaUKR
10-0.74-0.66-0.20-0.65+0.17
51PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
8-0.58-0.37-0.20-0.48+0.20
52PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
10-0.11-0.46-1.25-0.35+0.20
53VittozziLisaITA
12-0.74-0.06-0.64-0.53+0.23
54DunkleeSusanUSA
10-0.470.29-0.14-0.21+0.23
55Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
8-0.61-0.91-0.29-0.66+0.30
56InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
10-0.991.31-0.00-0.20+0.40
57ZbylutKingaPOL
10-0.070.360.000.07+0.42

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, overall performance, shooting, skiing

Ski speed comparison: First trimester 2019–20 vs. First trimester 2020–21

Posted on 2021-01-05 | by real biathlon | 2 Comments on Ski speed comparison: First trimester 2019–20 vs. First trimester 2020–21

In the past, I often compared changes in ski speed to the entire previous season, which might be slightly deceiving, especially at the beginning of a season. Some athletes start particularly strong before Christmas, others might do better late in a season, when parts of the field are already tired. Potentially, it’s a better idea to only compare the same World Cup period. Here I did this specifically for World Cup trimester 1 (roughly December 2019 vs. December 2020).

I used the percentage back from the top 30 median for this. Comparisons against the entire field are problematic this year, because of temporary rule changes (each National Federation can register two athletes who have not fulfilled the qualification criteria). That makes the whole field slightly slower.

If you can’t find a specific athlete, you can always look up the complete World Cup field (also available per trimester) for the ongoing season (as well as all previous seasons) here:

  • Ski speed: Men | Women

Note: Only athletes with at least 5 non-team races in trimester 1 of both the previous and the current season are included in the tables below. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per season).


Men

Martin Ponsiluoma and Sebastian Samuelsson are the most improved overall. Both lowered their average ski rank by at least 24 positions, plus they are skiing 3.5% and 3.0% faster respectively (compared to their speed last December). Veteran Jakov Fak (his 15th World Cup season) is currently on his best ski form in 5 years. World Cup leader, Johannes Thingnes Bø, is very close to his level from last December (he is slightly ahead).

Quentin Fillon Maillet started the season as one of the favorites, but he is not at his peak form yet; his hit rate is at a career high right now, but his speed has declined a lot compared to December 2019 (average ski rank almost doubled). For this pre-Christmas period, Germany and France have only one athlete each who improved season-to-season: Erik Lesser (only started in 4 races in December 2019) and Fabien Claude, respectively.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season | World Cup Trimester 1

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1PonsiluomaMartinSWE
95.7-24.3-1.66-3.49
2SamuelssonSebastianSWE
98.2-25.9-1.13-2.99
3LatypovEduardRUS
918.9-26.3+0.40-2.78
4BocharnikovSergeyBLR
827.5-21.8+1.06-2.49
5FakJakovSLO
920.0-17.5+0.46-1.84
6ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
913.3-12.8-0.63-1.67
7DaleJohannesNOR
96.1-8.9-1.97-1.61
8LangerThierryBEL
751.7-8.7+3.72-1.48
9NelinJesperSWE
912.2-14.2-0.44-1.44
10DombrovskiKarolLTU
761.1-11.5+4.84-1.40
11DohertySeanUSA
849.6-11.7+3.64-1.17
12EliseevMatveyRUS
935.8+4.3+2.15-1.14
13WegerBenjaminSUI
920.2-7.8+0.58-0.87
14LoginovAlexanderRUS
913.7-5.9-0.25-0.76
15GuzikGrzegorzPOL
756.4-11.2+4.29-0.73
16NordgrenLeifUSA
651.8-3.3+3.60-0.67
17GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
533.8-8.2+2.27-0.60
18TrsanRokSLO
667.0-12.8+5.98-0.41
19BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
92.4-2.1-2.66-0.24
20VaclavikAdamCZE
643.8-1.0+2.78-0.22
21PrymaArtemUKR
836.0+1.0+2.13-0.13
22ClaudeFabienFRA
910.2-1.8-0.68-0.13
23DovzanMihaSLO
678.7+2.5+7.08-0.13
24HiidensaloOlliFIN
647.3-0.7+3.27-0.12
25BoeTarjeiNOR
94.6-1.4-1.79-0.08
26GuigonnatAntoninFRA
931.0+1.7+1.60+0.06
27FemlingPeppeSWE
851.9-2.1+3.65+0.11
28BormoliniThomasITA
544.4+2.0+2.75+0.15
29BjoentegaardErlendNOR
512.6+0.5-0.43+0.19
30PeifferArndGER
718.0+2.2+0.17+0.20
31JacquelinEmilienFRA
910.2+0.9-0.81+0.22
32StvrteckyJakubCZE
733.0+4.0+1.69+0.23
33SeppalaTeroFIN
830.3+4.8+1.39+0.31
34BauerKlemenSLO
747.9-0.9+4.05+0.33
35RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
820.6+4.1+0.49+0.54
36KrcmarMichalCZE
932.1+9.7+1.59+0.57
37HoferLukasITA
913.3+1.8-0.25+0.62
38DudchenkoAntonUKR
660.2+7.3+4.55+0.75
39EderSimonAUT
939.2+6.2+2.58+0.78
40LeitnerFelixAUT
736.4+8.4+2.00+0.79
41ClaudeFlorentBEL
646.0+14.3+3.05+0.79
42DollBenediktGER
916.0+5.6+0.00+0.84
43SinapovAntonBUL
668.2-1.3+6.13+0.91
44StroliaVytautasLTU
749.4+5.6+3.83+0.94
45Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
911.0+4.1-0.64+1.28
46WindischDominikITA
534.4+13.7+1.87+1.46
47EberhardJulianAUT
821.6+10.8+0.70+1.51
48ErmitsKalevEST
858.0+10.0+4.88+1.67
49KuehnJohannesGER
821.6+14.3+0.57+1.74
50PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
843.5+20.9+2.99+1.82
51DesthieuxSimonFRA
919.6+11.0+0.45+1.98
52TkalenkoRuslanUKR
575.4+20.4+6.16+2.22
53IlievVladimirBUL
641.8+23.3+2.61+2.39


Women

Among regular starters, Dzinara Alimbekava is by far the most improved, 5.0% faster than last season (plus her average ski rank is now an incredible 44.8 positions lower!). Lisa Theresa Hauser and Franziska Preuß stood out more for their (fast) shooting in the past, but they are both among the top 15 skiers at the moment. Hauser’s transformation is particularly remarkable (over 2% faster than any of her previous 7 seasons), Preuß was close to this level before (five years ago).

World Cup leader and overall fastest skier, Marte Olsbu Røiseland, is missing in the table below, because she only appeared in 4 races in December 2019. She is actually slower compared to her speed at the start of the 2019–20 season (+0.5%). Last year’s top skier, Denise Herrmann, is struggling to get going; her average ski rank in trimester 1 last season was 4.5, now it’s 8.3. Dorothea Wierer was the 9th fastest skier last season, now she’s ranked 23rd.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season | World Cup Trimester 1

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
914.2-44.8-0.33-5.02
2BeaudrySarahCAN
758.9-21.1+4.54-4.11
3ChevalierChloeFRA
822.6-34.7+0.99-3.25
4BlashkoDaryaUKR
943.9-12.1+3.64-2.65
5HauserLisa TheresaAUT
912.7-24.0-0.36-2.47
6OebergElviraSWE
96.7-12.3-1.64-2.33
7PreussFranziskaGER
912.1-8.4-0.56-1.01
8GasparinElisaSUI
745.6-9.2+3.09-0.99
9SchwaigerJuliaAUT
742.9-8.7+2.89-0.94
10EganClareUSA
928.1-8.7+1.25-0.93
11BescondAnaisFRA
916.0-10.5+0.16-0.85
12KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
932.9-3.7+1.89-0.79
13CadurischIreneSUI
667.2-2.8+6.03-0.53
14OebergHannaSWE
912.0-1.8-0.72-0.49
15ColomboCarolineFRA
828.4-5.5+1.43-0.41
16TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
97.1-4.6-1.28-0.29
17PerssonLinnSWE
919.3-3.1+0.33-0.28
18LunderEmmaCAN
937.1-3.7+2.41-0.26
19GasparinSelinaSUI
619.7-1.7+0.44-0.14
20GasparinAitaSUI
747.6+5.1+3.48-0.06
21DavidovaMarketaCZE
96.9-1.1-1.43-0.02
22CharvatovaLucieCZE
722.8+1.1+0.84+0.08
23JislovaJessicaCZE
752.0+3.5+3.77+0.16
24SimonJuliaFRA
919.3+5.6-0.15+0.17
25VoroninaTamaraRUS
568.8+7.4+5.44+0.23
26TalihaermJohannaEST
655.7+0.2+4.88+0.30
27BrorssonMonaSWE
828.9+2.7+1.55+0.35
28InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
821.8+1.4+0.83+0.39
29Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
95.8-0.2-1.62+0.48
30ZukKamilaPOL
734.9+6.9+1.99+0.58
31EckhoffTirilNOR
95.6+1.3-1.94+0.73
32VittozziLisaITA
931.4+8.0+1.82+0.84
33OjaReginaEST
576.0+11.0+6.70+0.89
34KryukoIrynaBLR
737.5+11.8+2.20+1.02
35HerrmannDeniseGER
98.3+3.8-1.25+1.09
36ZbylutKingaPOL
761.4+8.9+5.21+1.25
37TachizakiFuyukoJPN
848.3+7.5+3.91+1.33
38EderMariFIN
618.7+7.2+0.30+1.35
39KocerginaNataljaLTU
583.0+14.0+7.64+1.35
40WiererDorotheaITA
921.1+12.0+0.61+1.66
41HinzVanessaGER
745.0+17.0+3.03+1.77
42MironovaSvetlanaRUS
625.5+15.1+1.02+1.79
43SanfilippoFedericaITA
550.8+12.6+4.02+1.85
44SemerenkoValentinaUKR
555.5+17.5+4.22+2.04
45PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
543.6+19.0+3.21+2.14
46HaeckiLenaSUI
832.3+22.7+1.86+2.62
47PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
752.4+27.4+4.42+3.39

One thing that stands out is how well Norway and Sweden are doing (both men and women). Every athlete of those two nations either improved (often significantly), or at least managed to maintain their previous level; not a single athlete got notably worse.

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2019–20 season, 2020–21 season, skiing

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