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Overall performance scores, season-to-season improvements

Posted on 2021-01-19 | by real biathlon

Last weekend’s mass starts marked the halfway point of the season (13 of 26 races are done). This is probably a good time to take another look at the overall performances this winter. Below, I listed the season-to-season changes in the Overall Performance Score of regular World Cup athletes (at least 8 races in the last two seasons), plus the current top 15 per gender (full results for the entire field here: men & women). You can do your own season-to-season comparisons for all stats in the Patreon bonus area.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

It’s always interesting to me how accurately this very theoretical method reflects the current World Cup standings. For the men, the top 2, Johannes Thingnes Bø and Sturla Holm Lægreid, are predicted correctly – only through skiing and shooting stats, without taking a single race result into account. I think that’s pretty good. Twelve of the top 15 come within two positions of their current World Cup rank.

Quentin Fillon Maillet is overestimated, in large parts because he forgot to do a penalty loop in the Oberhof sprint (which essentially ruined two races for him). It’s no surprise that something like that isn’t reflected here. Arnd Peiffer is ranked four positions higher than his current World Cup rank, however, he missed two races in Hochfilzen last month and his average race position (14.7) would rank him 9th overall, therefore this ranking is not a bad estimation of his form this season.

Top 15 Overall performance score (z-Scores) | Non-Team events 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
131-2.09-0.65-0.67-1.50
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
132-1.45-1.49-0.77-1.38
3Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
127-1.49-1.04-1.14-1.32
4BoeTarjeiNOR
133-1.74-0.85-0.22-1.30
5JacquelinEmilienFRA
136-1.44-1.00-1.26-1.29
6DaleJohannesNOR
134-1.83-0.800.27-1.28
7SamuelssonSebastianSWE
135-1.51-1.05-0.30-1.23
8PonsiluomaMartinSWE
138-1.73-0.11-1.14-1.19
9PeifferArndGER
1113-1.33-1.10-0.53-1.16
10LesserErikGER
1311-1.18-1.00-1.29-1.14
11FakJakovSLO
139-1.09-1.29-0.87-1.12
12HoferLukasITA
1310-1.47-0.46-0.78-1.10
13DollBenediktGER
1312-1.28-0.75-0.97-1.09
14ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
1215-1.32-0.93-0.27-1.08
15LoginovAlexanderRUS
1219-1.31-0.71-0.64-1.06

Looking at changes season-to-season, the Swedish duo Martin Ponsiluoma and Sebastian Samuelsson are the most improved biathletes, mainly due to their new found ski speed. Lukas Hofer comes third; he had a very impressive two weeks in Oberhof (top 6 results in all four non-team races). Benjamin Weger made his first podium in almost eight years last Sunday (his current non-team percentage is at an all-time high, 88.5%); he is the fourth most improved athlete right now.

2020–21 z-Scores compared to 2019–20 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1PonsiluomaMartinSWE
13-1.73-0.11-1.14-1.19-0.69
2SamuelssonSebastianSWE
13-1.51-1.05-0.30-1.23-0.56
3HoferLukasITA
13-1.47-0.46-0.78-1.10-0.44
4WegerBenjaminSUI
13-1.06-0.95-0.54-0.96-0.34
5BocharnikovSergeyBLR
12-1.00-0.39-0.37-0.75-0.33
6SimaMichalSVK
90.24-0.77-0.38-0.13-0.31
7EliseevMatveyRUS
13-0.82-1.15-1.10-0.95-0.28
8GowChristianCAN
11-0.36-1.16-0.68-0.63-0.27
9LatypovEduardRUS
13-1.14-0.360.08-0.77-0.26
10HasillaTomasSVK
80.190.38-0.030.22-0.26
11FakJakovSLO
13-1.09-1.29-0.87-1.12-0.25
12SmolskiAntonBLR
11-1.17-0.24-0.11-0.77-0.21
13DaleJohannesNOR
13-1.83-0.800.27-1.28-0.21
14EderSimonAUT
13-0.50-1.64-1.33-0.93-0.15
15JacquelinEmilienFRA
13-1.44-1.00-1.26-1.29-0.14
16KrcmarMichalCZE
9-0.83-1.100.03-0.80-0.11
17LangerThierryBEL
9-0.22-0.360.47-0.17-0.11
18PeifferArndGER
11-1.33-1.10-0.53-1.16-0.11
19BormoliniThomasITA
8-0.72-0.74-0.41-0.69-0.10
20ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
12-1.32-0.93-0.27-1.08-0.10
21NordgrenLeifUSA
9-0.31-0.52-0.21-0.36-0.10
22ClaudeFabienFRA
13-1.37-0.01-0.85-0.92-0.10
23NelinJesperSWE
11-1.400.240.01-0.75-0.10
24BoeTarjeiNOR
13-1.74-0.85-0.22-1.30-0.08
25DombrovskiKarolLTU
10-0.14-0.820.48-0.26-0.08
26DollBenediktGER
13-1.28-0.75-0.97-1.09-0.06
27DovzanMihaSLO
90.40-0.69-1.24-0.11-0.06
28WindischDominikITA
9-0.94-0.04-0.29-0.60-0.05
29RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
12-1.14-0.06-0.30-0.73-0.04
30GuigonnatAntoninFRA
13-0.90-0.80-0.43-0.82-0.02
31LeitnerFelixAUT
11-0.93-0.730.73-0.68+0.00
32SeppalaTeroFIN
11-1.000.07-0.02-0.57+0.03
33Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
12-1.49-1.04-1.14-1.32+0.04
34DohertySeanUSA
11-0.34-0.36-0.60-0.38+0.08
35YaliotnauRamanBLR
10-0.920.59-0.03-0.37+0.08
36LoginovAlexanderRUS
12-1.31-0.71-0.64-1.06+0.10
37PrymaArtemUKR
11-0.73-0.24-0.87-0.60+0.10
38ErmitsKalevEST
90.020.27-0.110.07+0.11
39BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
13-2.09-0.65-0.67-1.50+0.11
40StroliaVytautasLTU
10-0.42-0.110.16-0.26+0.11
41FemlingPeppeSWE
12-0.19-0.39-1.04-0.35+0.14
42IlievVladimirBUL
8-0.880.25-0.07-0.45+0.14
43DesthieuxSimonFRA
13-1.20-0.51-0.80-0.95+0.15
44EberhardJulianAUT
8-1.130.05-0.30-0.69+0.17
45MoravecOndrejCZE
10-0.34-0.77-0.75-0.51+0.20
46PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
11-0.69-0.17-1.19-0.60+0.20
47StvrteckyJakubCZE
10-0.981.081.28-0.11+0.21
48GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
8-0.42-0.93-0.46-0.58+0.22
49KuehnJohannesGER
9-1.23-0.040.57-0.67+0.24
50ClaudeFlorentBEL
9-0.48-0.110.92-0.21+0.25
51TrsanRokSLO
80.63-0.74-0.920.05+0.34
52GowScottCAN
90.14-0.11-1.12-0.08+0.38
53GuzikGrzegorzPOL
10-0.060.73-0.460.12+0.38


Women

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Røiseland tops the women’s ranking, even though Tiril Eckhoff has won 6 out of 13 races so far. It’s a bit surprising that Eckhoff is only ranked third. Her overall season statistics are still affected by her very poor season opener in Kontiolahti, where she failed to make the World Cup points in both races.

Eckhoff’s ranking could be an argument that the best and worst one/two/three data points should be thrown out to better reflect an athlete’s expected standard performance. Presumably, the ranking would then no longer correlate as closely to the current World Cup standings though. Overall, 13 of the top 15 come within two positions of their current World Cup rank; no one in the top 8 is off by more than one position.

Top 15 Overall performance score (z-Scores) | Non-Team events 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
131-1.51-0.88-1.18-1.29
2OebergHannaSWE
133-1.20-0.97-1.82-1.21
3EckhoffTirilNOR
132-1.51-0.64-0.53-1.14
4WiererDorotheaITA
134-0.94-1.26-1.56-1.10
5OebergElviraSWE
136-1.32-0.64-0.80-1.06
6PreussFranziskaGER
135-1.17-0.73-1.24-1.05
7HauserLisa TheresaAUT
138-1.15-0.73-1.03-1.02
8AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
137-1.12-1.02-0.42-1.01
9SimonJuliaFRA
1312-1.19-0.12-1.75-0.94
10Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
1314-1.39-0.31-0.14-0.93
11DavidovaMarketaCZE
139-1.38-0.35-0.07-0.93
12HerrmannDeniseGER
1311-1.38-0.16-0.52-0.93
13TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
1213-1.29-0.51-0.05-0.91
14PerssonLinnSWE
1315-0.98-0.78-0.25-0.84
15KnottenKarolineNOR
1316-0.47-1.31-1.30-0.81

Just like on the men’s side, the most improved skier, Dzinara Alimbekava, is also the most improved biathlete overall, confirming again that ski speed is by far the most important aspect of the sport – maybe not in a single race, but certainly if you look at results over longer periods. Elvira Öberg and Tuuli Tomingas come second and third. Monika Hojnisz-Staręga suffered one of the biggest declines season-to-season, however, after an extremely poor December, she was much improved in Oberhof.

2020–21 z-Scores compared to 2019–20 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
13-1.12-1.02-0.42-1.01-0.93
2OebergElviraSWE
13-1.32-0.64-0.80-1.06-0.54
3TomingasTuuliEST
10-0.66-0.390.16-0.48-0.54
4ZdoucDunjaAUT
13-0.33-1.07-0.30-0.54-0.38
5HettichJaninaGER
13-0.50-1.26-0.06-0.67-0.31
6ReidJoanneUSA
9-0.46-0.510.77-0.33-0.30
7KnottenKarolineNOR
13-0.47-1.31-1.30-0.81-0.28
8ColomboCarolineFRA
11-0.76-0.29-0.49-0.59-0.26
9HauserLisa TheresaAUT
13-1.15-0.73-1.03-1.02-0.23
10MinkkinenSuviFIN
90.03-0.59-0.92-0.27-0.20
11MironovaSvetlanaRUS
10-1.06-0.18-0.81-0.78-0.19
12BlashkoDaryaUKR
10-0.31-1.320.17-0.55-0.16
13KlemencicPolonaSLO
80.070.36-0.060.14-0.14
14SolaHannaBLR
11-1.130.95-0.97-0.51-0.14
15DavidovaMarketaCZE
13-1.38-0.35-0.07-0.93-0.14
16LunderEmmaCAN
13-0.52-1.02-1.15-0.74-0.13
17Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
13-1.39-0.31-0.14-0.93-0.08
18OebergHannaSWE
13-1.20-0.97-1.82-1.21-0.07
19RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
13-1.51-0.88-1.18-1.29-0.05
20SchwaigerJuliaAUT
10-0.60-0.59-0.01-0.53-0.05
21SimonJuliaFRA
13-1.19-0.12-1.75-0.94-0.05
22MaedaSariJPN
9-0.490.600.21-0.09-0.05
23TodorovaMilenaBUL
10-0.610.010.20-0.33-0.03
24BrorssonMonaSWE
11-0.72-0.77-0.62-0.72-0.03
25PerssonLinnSWE
13-0.98-0.78-0.25-0.84-0.03
26TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
12-1.29-0.51-0.05-0.91-0.01
27HaeckiLenaSUI
11-0.70-0.17-1.61-0.66-0.01
28KryukoIrynaBLR
8-0.79-0.860.97-0.60+0.00
29WiererDorotheaITA
13-0.94-1.26-1.56-1.10+0.01
30GasparinElisaSUI
10-0.55-0.12-0.84-0.46+0.02
31PreussFranziskaGER
13-1.17-0.73-1.24-1.05+0.02
32EckhoffTirilNOR
13-1.51-0.64-0.53-1.14+0.03
33TachizakiFuyukoJPN
10-0.32-0.520.64-0.27+0.05
34KruchinkinaElenaBLR
13-0.91-0.210.87-0.49+0.06
35ChevalierChloeFRA
11-0.930.000.75-0.46+0.07
36JislovaJessicaCZE
9-0.400.040.27-0.19+0.08
37FrolinaAnnaKOR
9-0.160.44-0.36-0.01+0.10
38GasparinAitaSUI
10-0.38-0.59-0.85-0.50+0.10
39ZukKamilaPOL
10-0.810.021.11-0.34+0.10
40SkottheimJohannaSWE
11-0.41-0.96-0.96-0.64+0.10
41BescondAnaisFRA
13-1.03-0.400.19-0.70+0.11
42GasparinSelinaSUI
9-1.100.200.18-0.57+0.11
43EderMariFIN
9-1.170.281.25-0.46+0.11
44BelchenkoYelizavetaKAZ
80.41-0.59-0.120.05+0.12
45HinzVanessaGER
10-0.58-0.86-0.33-0.63+0.12
46CharvatovaLucieCZE
9-1.031.50-0.93-0.28+0.13
47EganClareUSA
13-0.73-0.500.66-0.50+0.14
48HerrmannDeniseGER
13-1.38-0.16-0.52-0.93+0.15
49TalihaermJohannaEST
9-0.25-0.190.93-0.09+0.15
50DzhimaYuliiaUKR
10-0.74-0.66-0.20-0.65+0.17
51PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
8-0.58-0.37-0.20-0.48+0.20
52PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
10-0.11-0.46-1.25-0.35+0.20
53VittozziLisaITA
12-0.74-0.06-0.64-0.53+0.23
54DunkleeSusanUSA
10-0.470.29-0.14-0.21+0.23
55Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
8-0.61-0.91-0.29-0.66+0.30
56InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
10-0.991.31-0.00-0.20+0.40
57ZbylutKingaPOL
10-0.070.360.000.07+0.42

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Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, overall performance, shooting, skiing

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