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Tag: overall performance

Best performers in January

Posted on 2022-01-23 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Best performers in January

Who is in top shape going into the Winter Olympics which start in less than two weeks? A lot of favorites skipped some races recently, still the January results probably give a better indication of current form than the races in December.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

2021–22 z-Scores in January | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1LoginovAlexandrRUS
59.439.8-1.43-1.00-0.72-1.22
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
43.844.8-1.51-0.80-0.40-1.17
3BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
413.832.5-1.83-0.07-0.58-1.17
4BoeTarjeiNOR
46.341.5-1.78-0.36-0.01-1.16
5Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
66.744.5-1.44-0.67-0.93-1.16
6DollBenediktGER
613.233.7-1.40-0.77-0.79-1.14
7SamuelssonSebastianSWE
410.335.0-1.27-1.04-0.48-1.11
8LesserErikGER
48.834.0-1.04-1.04-1.09-1.04
9TsvetkovMaksimRUS
423.516.2-1.10-1.040.10-0.94
10SerokhvostovDaniilRUS
414.821.2-1.13-0.70-0.32-0.91
11DesthieuxSimonFRA
616.726.8-1.02-0.87-0.43-0.90
12ClaudeFabienFRA
617.324.2-1.14-0.36-1.00-0.90
13JacquelinEmilienFRA
520.426.0-0.91-0.62-1.31-0.87
14KhaliliSaid KarimullaRUS
526.617.2-0.96-1.00-0.14-0.87
15BabikovAntonRUS
519.632.0-0.77-1.12-0.59-0.85
16HoferLukasITA
421.020.5-1.07-0.36-0.52-0.80
17BakkenSivert GuttormNOR
421.021.0-1.15-0.07-0.74-0.79
18SeppalaTeroFIN
619.023.2-0.91-0.67-0.45-0.78
19EderSimonAUT
521.618.5-0.44-1.12-1.47-0.76
20NawrathPhilippGER
433.010.5-1.28-0.020.07-0.75
21LeitnerFelixAUT
429.813.5-0.92-0.51-0.47-0.74
22SmolskiAntonBLR
620.324.8-1.04-0.360.08-0.71
23ReesRomanGER
515.027.4-0.71-0.74-0.58-0.70
24PonsiluomaMartinSWE
431.014.0-1.110.32-0.81-0.66
25ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
419.321.8-0.94-0.07-0.31-0.61
26ClaudeFlorentBEL
622.219.5-0.52-1.070.31-0.58
27KrcmarMichalCZE
628.513.8-0.55-0.77-0.11-0.56
28HiidensaloOlliFIN
530.211.3-0.52-0.74-0.24-0.55
29BormoliniThomasITA
622.217.7-0.64-0.46-0.23-0.54
30GuigonnatAntoninFRA
541.012.0-0.73-0.11-0.63-0.54
31StroliaVytautasLTU
521.220.8-0.52-0.49-0.34-0.49
32VaclavikAdamCZE
539.25.8-0.850.15-0.16-0.48
33PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
432.310.0-0.770.49-1.15-0.45
34BurkhalterJoschaSUI
427.313.80.02-0.87-1.75-0.45
35IlievVladimirBUL
541.87.4-0.800.020.14-0.45
36PovarnitsynAlexanderRUS
537.03.2-0.34-0.53-0.78-0.45
37GiacomelTommasoITA
443.84.5-0.910.66-0.70-0.43
38WindischDominikITA
537.411.0-0.840.53-0.57-0.41
39TsymbalBogdanUKR
533.412.8-0.26-0.74-0.33-0.41
40FakJakovSLO
537.811.8-0.11-0.87-0.63-0.39

Women

2021–22 z-Scores in January | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
41.358.5-1.36-1.35-1.94-1.43
2OebergHannaSWE
46.341.0-1.45-0.73-1.99-1.31
3SimonJuliaFRA
68.239.0-1.30-0.61-2.10-1.20
4OebergElviraSWE
46.344.0-1.52-0.73-0.71-1.19
5AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
64.343.7-1.37-0.79-1.26-1.19
6WiererDorotheaITA
66.840.2-1.14-0.51-2.29-1.10
7BrorssonMonaSWE
511.032.0-1.39-0.54-0.55-1.04
8Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
614.031.7-1.760.14-0.30-1.03
9Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
58.835.6-0.94-0.89-1.50-0.99
10DavidovaMarketaCZE
613.528.2-1.23-0.51-0.24-0.90
11SolaHannaBLR
523.016.7-1.420.51-1.65-0.89
12TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
48.533.8-1.26-0.22-0.11-0.82
13ReztsovaKristinaRUS
516.226.4-1.370.39-0.98-0.81
14HauserLisa TheresaAUT
613.027.7-0.83-0.33-1.71-0.79
15PerssonLinnSWE
426.318.8-1.11-0.11-0.70-0.77
16NigmatullinaUlianaRUS
534.816.2-0.76-0.77-0.46-0.72
17Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
428.014.5-0.73-0.73-0.65-0.72
18ChevalierChloeFRA
618.522.5-0.95-0.42-0.11-0.69
19VoigtVanessaGER
517.623.8-0.56-1.240.07-0.68
20BescondAnaisFRA
623.524.8-1.02-0.05-0.51-0.67
21HildebrandFranziskaGER
622.819.0-0.91-0.33-0.28-0.66
22StremousAlinaMDA
622.718.3-0.93-0.791.35-0.61
23VasnetcovaValeriiaRUS
626.718.0-0.840.04-1.08-0.61
24HinzVanessaGER
435.510.3-0.82-0.11-0.42-0.56
25EderMariFIN
522.415.5-1.240.390.46-0.56
26KazakevichIrinaRUS
630.814.2-0.94-0.140.29-0.56
27MinkkinenSuviFIN
438.88.8-0.24-0.89-1.35-0.56
28HaeckiLenaSUI
431.010.3-0.43-0.22-1.94-0.55
29TodorovaMilenaBUL
536.45.6-0.840.04-0.30-0.52
30ErdalKarolineNOR
436.014.3-0.52-0.42-0.54-0.49
31BendikaBaibaLAT
436.55.4-0.950.35-0.16-0.48
32SanfilippoFedericaITA
444.55.0-0.930.040.64-0.46
33HerrmannDeniseGER
428.59.6-1.140.660.16-0.46
34JislovaJessicaCZE
622.318.7-0.25-1.070.00-0.46
35ZukKamilaPOL
431.810.3-0.950.51-0.36-0.45
36TomingasTuuliEST
533.08.6-0.64-0.300.19-0.44
37LienIdaNOR
433.510.8-1.070.580.19-0.44
38FialkovaIvonaSVK
542.82.0-0.790.39-0.72-0.44
39LeshchankaIrynaBLR
441.59.6-0.880.35-0.12-0.43
40LieLotteBEL
636.57.8-0.09-0.89-0.60-0.39
Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2021–22 season, Data, overall performance

Overall performance scores, season-to-season improvements

Posted on 2021-01-19 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Overall performance scores, season-to-season improvements

Last weekend’s mass starts marked the halfway point of the season (13 of 26 races are done). This is probably a good time to take another look at the overall performances this winter. Below, I listed the season-to-season changes in the Overall Performance Score of regular World Cup athletes (at least 8 races in the last two seasons), plus the current top 15 per gender (full results for the entire field here: men & women). You can do your own season-to-season comparisons for all stats in the Patreon bonus area.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

It’s always interesting to me how accurately this very theoretical method reflects the current World Cup standings. For the men, the top 2, Johannes Thingnes Bø and Sturla Holm Lægreid, are predicted correctly – only through skiing and shooting stats, without taking a single race result into account. I think that’s pretty good. Twelve of the top 15 come within two positions of their current World Cup rank.

Quentin Fillon Maillet is overestimated, in large parts because he forgot to do a penalty loop in the Oberhof sprint (which essentially ruined two races for him). It’s no surprise that something like that isn’t reflected here. Arnd Peiffer is ranked four positions higher than his current World Cup rank, however, he missed two races in Hochfilzen last month and his average race position (14.7) would rank him 9th overall, therefore this ranking is not a bad estimation of his form this season.

Top 15 Overall performance score (z-Scores) | Non-Team events 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
131-2.09-0.65-0.67-1.50
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
132-1.45-1.49-0.77-1.38
3Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
127-1.49-1.04-1.14-1.32
4BoeTarjeiNOR
133-1.74-0.85-0.22-1.30
5JacquelinEmilienFRA
136-1.44-1.00-1.26-1.29
6DaleJohannesNOR
134-1.83-0.800.27-1.28
7SamuelssonSebastianSWE
135-1.51-1.05-0.30-1.23
8PonsiluomaMartinSWE
138-1.73-0.11-1.14-1.19
9PeifferArndGER
1113-1.33-1.10-0.53-1.16
10LesserErikGER
1311-1.18-1.00-1.29-1.14
11FakJakovSLO
139-1.09-1.29-0.87-1.12
12HoferLukasITA
1310-1.47-0.46-0.78-1.10
13DollBenediktGER
1312-1.28-0.75-0.97-1.09
14ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
1215-1.32-0.93-0.27-1.08
15LoginovAlexanderRUS
1219-1.31-0.71-0.64-1.06

Looking at changes season-to-season, the Swedish duo Martin Ponsiluoma and Sebastian Samuelsson are the most improved biathletes, mainly due to their new found ski speed. Lukas Hofer comes third; he had a very impressive two weeks in Oberhof (top 6 results in all four non-team races). Benjamin Weger made his first podium in almost eight years last Sunday (his current non-team percentage is at an all-time high, 88.5%); he is the fourth most improved athlete right now.

2020–21 z-Scores compared to 2019–20 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1PonsiluomaMartinSWE
13-1.73-0.11-1.14-1.19-0.69
2SamuelssonSebastianSWE
13-1.51-1.05-0.30-1.23-0.56
3HoferLukasITA
13-1.47-0.46-0.78-1.10-0.44
4WegerBenjaminSUI
13-1.06-0.95-0.54-0.96-0.34
5BocharnikovSergeyBLR
12-1.00-0.39-0.37-0.75-0.33
6SimaMichalSVK
90.24-0.77-0.38-0.13-0.31
7EliseevMatveyRUS
13-0.82-1.15-1.10-0.95-0.28
8GowChristianCAN
11-0.36-1.16-0.68-0.63-0.27
9LatypovEduardRUS
13-1.14-0.360.08-0.77-0.26
10HasillaTomasSVK
80.190.38-0.030.22-0.26
11FakJakovSLO
13-1.09-1.29-0.87-1.12-0.25
12SmolskiAntonBLR
11-1.17-0.24-0.11-0.77-0.21
13DaleJohannesNOR
13-1.83-0.800.27-1.28-0.21
14EderSimonAUT
13-0.50-1.64-1.33-0.93-0.15
15JacquelinEmilienFRA
13-1.44-1.00-1.26-1.29-0.14
16KrcmarMichalCZE
9-0.83-1.100.03-0.80-0.11
17LangerThierryBEL
9-0.22-0.360.47-0.17-0.11
18PeifferArndGER
11-1.33-1.10-0.53-1.16-0.11
19BormoliniThomasITA
8-0.72-0.74-0.41-0.69-0.10
20ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
12-1.32-0.93-0.27-1.08-0.10
21NordgrenLeifUSA
9-0.31-0.52-0.21-0.36-0.10
22ClaudeFabienFRA
13-1.37-0.01-0.85-0.92-0.10
23NelinJesperSWE
11-1.400.240.01-0.75-0.10
24BoeTarjeiNOR
13-1.74-0.85-0.22-1.30-0.08
25DombrovskiKarolLTU
10-0.14-0.820.48-0.26-0.08
26DollBenediktGER
13-1.28-0.75-0.97-1.09-0.06
27DovzanMihaSLO
90.40-0.69-1.24-0.11-0.06
28WindischDominikITA
9-0.94-0.04-0.29-0.60-0.05
29RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
12-1.14-0.06-0.30-0.73-0.04
30GuigonnatAntoninFRA
13-0.90-0.80-0.43-0.82-0.02
31LeitnerFelixAUT
11-0.93-0.730.73-0.68+0.00
32SeppalaTeroFIN
11-1.000.07-0.02-0.57+0.03
33Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
12-1.49-1.04-1.14-1.32+0.04
34DohertySeanUSA
11-0.34-0.36-0.60-0.38+0.08
35YaliotnauRamanBLR
10-0.920.59-0.03-0.37+0.08
36LoginovAlexanderRUS
12-1.31-0.71-0.64-1.06+0.10
37PrymaArtemUKR
11-0.73-0.24-0.87-0.60+0.10
38ErmitsKalevEST
90.020.27-0.110.07+0.11
39BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
13-2.09-0.65-0.67-1.50+0.11
40StroliaVytautasLTU
10-0.42-0.110.16-0.26+0.11
41FemlingPeppeSWE
12-0.19-0.39-1.04-0.35+0.14
42IlievVladimirBUL
8-0.880.25-0.07-0.45+0.14
43DesthieuxSimonFRA
13-1.20-0.51-0.80-0.95+0.15
44EberhardJulianAUT
8-1.130.05-0.30-0.69+0.17
45MoravecOndrejCZE
10-0.34-0.77-0.75-0.51+0.20
46PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
11-0.69-0.17-1.19-0.60+0.20
47StvrteckyJakubCZE
10-0.981.081.28-0.11+0.21
48GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
8-0.42-0.93-0.46-0.58+0.22
49KuehnJohannesGER
9-1.23-0.040.57-0.67+0.24
50ClaudeFlorentBEL
9-0.48-0.110.92-0.21+0.25
51TrsanRokSLO
80.63-0.74-0.920.05+0.34
52GowScottCAN
90.14-0.11-1.12-0.08+0.38
53GuzikGrzegorzPOL
10-0.060.73-0.460.12+0.38


Women

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Røiseland tops the women’s ranking, even though Tiril Eckhoff has won 6 out of 13 races so far. It’s a bit surprising that Eckhoff is only ranked third. Her overall season statistics are still affected by her very poor season opener in Kontiolahti, where she failed to make the World Cup points in both races.

Eckhoff’s ranking could be an argument that the best and worst one/two/three data points should be thrown out to better reflect an athlete’s expected standard performance. Presumably, the ranking would then no longer correlate as closely to the current World Cup standings though. Overall, 13 of the top 15 come within two positions of their current World Cup rank; no one in the top 8 is off by more than one position.

Top 15 Overall performance score (z-Scores) | Non-Team events 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesWorld Cup
Rank
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
131-1.51-0.88-1.18-1.29
2OebergHannaSWE
133-1.20-0.97-1.82-1.21
3EckhoffTirilNOR
132-1.51-0.64-0.53-1.14
4WiererDorotheaITA
134-0.94-1.26-1.56-1.10
5OebergElviraSWE
136-1.32-0.64-0.80-1.06
6PreussFranziskaGER
135-1.17-0.73-1.24-1.05
7HauserLisa TheresaAUT
138-1.15-0.73-1.03-1.02
8AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
137-1.12-1.02-0.42-1.01
9SimonJuliaFRA
1312-1.19-0.12-1.75-0.94
10Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
1314-1.39-0.31-0.14-0.93
11DavidovaMarketaCZE
139-1.38-0.35-0.07-0.93
12HerrmannDeniseGER
1311-1.38-0.16-0.52-0.93
13TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
1213-1.29-0.51-0.05-0.91
14PerssonLinnSWE
1315-0.98-0.78-0.25-0.84
15KnottenKarolineNOR
1316-0.47-1.31-1.30-0.81

Just like on the men’s side, the most improved skier, Dzinara Alimbekava, is also the most improved biathlete overall, confirming again that ski speed is by far the most important aspect of the sport – maybe not in a single race, but certainly if you look at results over longer periods. Elvira Öberg and Tuuli Tomingas come second and third. Monika Hojnisz-Staręga suffered one of the biggest declines season-to-season, however, after an extremely poor December, she was much improved in Oberhof.

2020–21 z-Scores compared to 2019–20 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
13-1.12-1.02-0.42-1.01-0.93
2OebergElviraSWE
13-1.32-0.64-0.80-1.06-0.54
3TomingasTuuliEST
10-0.66-0.390.16-0.48-0.54
4ZdoucDunjaAUT
13-0.33-1.07-0.30-0.54-0.38
5HettichJaninaGER
13-0.50-1.26-0.06-0.67-0.31
6ReidJoanneUSA
9-0.46-0.510.77-0.33-0.30
7KnottenKarolineNOR
13-0.47-1.31-1.30-0.81-0.28
8ColomboCarolineFRA
11-0.76-0.29-0.49-0.59-0.26
9HauserLisa TheresaAUT
13-1.15-0.73-1.03-1.02-0.23
10MinkkinenSuviFIN
90.03-0.59-0.92-0.27-0.20
11MironovaSvetlanaRUS
10-1.06-0.18-0.81-0.78-0.19
12BlashkoDaryaUKR
10-0.31-1.320.17-0.55-0.16
13KlemencicPolonaSLO
80.070.36-0.060.14-0.14
14SolaHannaBLR
11-1.130.95-0.97-0.51-0.14
15DavidovaMarketaCZE
13-1.38-0.35-0.07-0.93-0.14
16LunderEmmaCAN
13-0.52-1.02-1.15-0.74-0.13
17Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
13-1.39-0.31-0.14-0.93-0.08
18OebergHannaSWE
13-1.20-0.97-1.82-1.21-0.07
19RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
13-1.51-0.88-1.18-1.29-0.05
20SchwaigerJuliaAUT
10-0.60-0.59-0.01-0.53-0.05
21SimonJuliaFRA
13-1.19-0.12-1.75-0.94-0.05
22MaedaSariJPN
9-0.490.600.21-0.09-0.05
23TodorovaMilenaBUL
10-0.610.010.20-0.33-0.03
24BrorssonMonaSWE
11-0.72-0.77-0.62-0.72-0.03
25PerssonLinnSWE
13-0.98-0.78-0.25-0.84-0.03
26TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
12-1.29-0.51-0.05-0.91-0.01
27HaeckiLenaSUI
11-0.70-0.17-1.61-0.66-0.01
28KryukoIrynaBLR
8-0.79-0.860.97-0.60+0.00
29WiererDorotheaITA
13-0.94-1.26-1.56-1.10+0.01
30GasparinElisaSUI
10-0.55-0.12-0.84-0.46+0.02
31PreussFranziskaGER
13-1.17-0.73-1.24-1.05+0.02
32EckhoffTirilNOR
13-1.51-0.64-0.53-1.14+0.03
33TachizakiFuyukoJPN
10-0.32-0.520.64-0.27+0.05
34KruchinkinaElenaBLR
13-0.91-0.210.87-0.49+0.06
35ChevalierChloeFRA
11-0.930.000.75-0.46+0.07
36JislovaJessicaCZE
9-0.400.040.27-0.19+0.08
37FrolinaAnnaKOR
9-0.160.44-0.36-0.01+0.10
38GasparinAitaSUI
10-0.38-0.59-0.85-0.50+0.10
39ZukKamilaPOL
10-0.810.021.11-0.34+0.10
40SkottheimJohannaSWE
11-0.41-0.96-0.96-0.64+0.10
41BescondAnaisFRA
13-1.03-0.400.19-0.70+0.11
42GasparinSelinaSUI
9-1.100.200.18-0.57+0.11
43EderMariFIN
9-1.170.281.25-0.46+0.11
44BelchenkoYelizavetaKAZ
80.41-0.59-0.120.05+0.12
45HinzVanessaGER
10-0.58-0.86-0.33-0.63+0.12
46CharvatovaLucieCZE
9-1.031.50-0.93-0.28+0.13
47EganClareUSA
13-0.73-0.500.66-0.50+0.14
48HerrmannDeniseGER
13-1.38-0.16-0.52-0.93+0.15
49TalihaermJohannaEST
9-0.25-0.190.93-0.09+0.15
50DzhimaYuliiaUKR
10-0.74-0.66-0.20-0.65+0.17
51PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
8-0.58-0.37-0.20-0.48+0.20
52PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
10-0.11-0.46-1.25-0.35+0.20
53VittozziLisaITA
12-0.74-0.06-0.64-0.53+0.23
54DunkleeSusanUSA
10-0.470.29-0.14-0.21+0.23
55Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
8-0.61-0.91-0.29-0.66+0.30
56InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
10-0.991.31-0.00-0.20+0.40
57ZbylutKingaPOL
10-0.070.360.000.07+0.42

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, overall performance, shooting, skiing

Improvements season-to-season

Posted on 2020-11-18 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Improvements season-to-season

The new website allows you to look up basic biathlon data on your own (for different disciplines, periods, categories, etc.), so I won’t be posting too many of the regular statistical updates that I have done in the past. If you are interested in a specific statistic or ranking, you can always check out:

  • 2019–20 Shooting hit rates: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Ski speed: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Shooting Times: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Range Times: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Shooting efficiency: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Overall Performance Score: Men | Women

These will be updated after each race. I thought it would still be interesting though to take one high-level look at last season’s performances. Below I listed the season-to-season changes in the Overall Performance Score of regular World Cup athletes (at least 14 races in the last two seasons).

Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate values better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.

Men

Émilien Jacquelin was the most improved athlete last season, getting better in all major aspects of the sport: 5.5% higher hit rate, 1.8% faster skiing and 1.8s lower range time. Vytautas Strolia improved by the same amount, albeit on a much lower level, earning his first career top 20. They are followed by Johannes Kühn, who almost halved his average ski rank (12.3 to 6.7), and Erlend Bjøntegaard, who managed to increase his hit rate by 7.4%. On the flip side, Lukas Hofer‘s and Benjamin Weger‘s performance scores declined the most; both skiing over 1% slower; Hofer also hit 4.5% less of his targets.

Martin Fourcade ended his record-breaking career with his highest ever hit rate (91.8%), while his ski speed was almost back to his previous best (after a big decline in 2018–19): he had an average Course Time rank of 6.0 last winter – in 5 of his 7 title winning seasons his average ski rank was in the 4.5-5.0 range. The improvement of the French men really stand out (three in the top 10 below). Quentin Fillon Maillet became the second-fastest skier overall (1.5% faster). Johannes Thingnes Bø‘s ski speed declined slightly (on the highest possible level), yet he managed to set the best shooting percentage (92.1%) for a World Cup winner ever.

2019–20 z-Scores compared to 2018–19 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1JacquelinEmilienFRA
20-1.27-0.83-1.36-1.15-0.44
2StroliaVytautas LTU
14-0.68-0.050.30-0.38-0.44
3KuehnJohannesGER
21-1.510.02-0.17-0.90-0.28
4BjoentegaardErlendNOR
18-1.38-0.77-0.40-1.08-0.28
5SeppalaTeroFIN
17-0.980.15-0.55-0.60-0.26
6FourcadeMartinFRA
21-1.63-1.26-0.71-1.41-0.21
7PrymaArtemUKR
20-0.79-0.53-0.72-0.71-0.20
8Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
21-1.68-0.84-1.05-1.36-0.15
9IlievVladimirBUL
16-1.140.45-0.44-0.60-0.12
10EliseevMatveyRUS
20-0.63-0.68-0.85-0.67-0.11
11BoeTarjeiNOR
21-1.50-0.93-0.51-1.21-0.09
12BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
17-1.89-1.30-1.01-1.62-0.08
13GuzikGrzegorzPOL
14-0.18-0.19-0.81-0.26-0.08
14KrcmarMichalCZE
20-0.84-0.44-0.59-0.69-0.08
15BormoliniThomasITA
15-0.59-0.62-0.47-0.59-0.06
16YaliotnauRamanBLR
14-0.920.240.18-0.46-0.05
17PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
19-0.83-0.50-1.35-0.80-0.05
18DollBenediktGER
21-1.42-0.26-1.04-1.04-0.03
19ClaudeFlorentBEL
17-0.58-0.730.78-0.46-0.02
20FakJakovSLO
20-0.77-1.00-1.04-0.87-0.02
21SamuelssonSebastianSWE
16-0.94-0.22-0.44-0.67-0.01
22ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
21-1.18-0.70-0.69-0.98+0.03
23NelinJesperSWE
17-1.050.00-0.28-0.66+0.03
24LoginovAlexanderRUS
19-1.22-1.03-1.15-1.15+0.03
25LeitnerFelixAUT
19-1.00-0.370.16-0.68+0.04
26BauerKlemenSLO
15-0.59-0.10-1.46-0.55+0.04
27MoravecOndrejCZE
17-0.54-1.06-0.71-0.71+0.05
28DesthieuxSimonFRA
21-1.33-0.76-0.81-1.10+0.08
29EberhardJulianAUT
18-1.350.24-1.11-0.86+0.13
30GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
16-0.80-0.86-0.64-0.80+0.16
31GuigonnatAntoninFRA
15-0.96-0.52-0.72-0.80+0.17
32RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
17-1.160.11-0.26-0.68+0.18
33PeifferArndGER
20-1.15-0.97-0.79-1.06+0.18
34WindischDominikITA
21-0.990.13-0.04-0.55+0.22
35DohertySeanUSA
14-0.49-0.33-0.61-0.46+0.25
36EderSimonAUT
15-0.67-0.86-1.12-0.78+0.28
37WegerBenjaminSUI
16-0.85-0.34-0.19-0.62+0.33
38HoferLukasITA
20-1.160.12-0.06-0.65+0.35

Women

Tang Jialin improved the most among regular starters, skiing an impressive 2.5% faster. Emma Lunder increased her hit rate from 74.3% to 82.1% and lowered her average Course Time rank by 7.4. Baiba Bendika improved virtually by the same amount, mostly thanks to skiing 1.7% faster. Not far behind was Tiril Eckhoff, who went on an incredible run of 6 wins in 8 races, in large parts thanks to a career-best hit rate (83.1%); her already high ski speed also increased slightly, however, she had been faster in 2015–16.

One of the pre-season favorites, Lisa Vittozzi, had a winter to forget: her overall shooting percentage fell by 7.6%, while her ski speed declined roughly to its 2017–18 level. Susan Dunklee proves that aggregate data isn’t everything, winning world championship silver in one of her worst seasons statistically. Dorothea Wierer claimed her second overall title, shooting minimally worse (-0.9%), but skiing faster than ever (career-best average Course Time rank: 10.0). Kaisa Mäkäräinen ended her long World Cup career (358 individual top-level races, 3rd all time) on a slight uptick; although her hit rate stayed below 80% for a second consecutive year, she managed to improve her ski speed in her final season.

2019–20 z-Scores compared to 2018–19 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1TangJialinCHN
14-0.36-0.941.15-0.35-0.49
2LunderEmmaCAN
18-0.50-0.57-1.29-0.61-0.46
3BendikaBaibaLAT
17-0.77-0.52-0.88-0.71-0.45
4EckhoffTirilNOR
20-1.57-0.67-0.40-1.17-0.42
5BraisazJustineFRA
21-1.450.09-0.18-0.85-0.35
6FialkovaIvonaSVK
16-0.800.25-0.30-0.44-0.33
7SemerenkoValentinaUKR
16-0.70-0.65-0.77-0.69-0.30
8ZukKamilaPOL
15-1.060.480.38-0.44-0.28
9SanfilippoFedericaITA
15-0.69-0.420.03-0.52-0.26
10PreussFranziskaGER
17-0.95-1.17-1.40-1.07-0.25
11DavidovaMarketaCZE
20-1.22-0.370.33-0.79-0.23
12RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
14-1.47-0.82-1.04-1.23-0.23
13Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
18-1.09-1.100.02-0.96-0.22
14TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
21-1.15-0.68-0.23-0.90-0.21
15AymonierCeliaFRA
15-1.42-0.080.59-0.79-0.21
16MakarainenKaisaFIN
21-1.56-0.240.42-0.94-0.20
17GasparinElisaSUI
15-0.46-0.47-0.58-0.47-0.18
18HerrmannDeniseGER
21-1.66-0.21-0.30-1.07-0.18
19Kristejn PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
16-0.48-0.64-0.67-0.55-0.18
20ZbylutKingaPOL
15-0.35-0.37-0.35-0.36-0.17
21SimonJuliaFRA
21-1.05-0.24-1.69-0.89-0.16
22HaeckiLenaSUI
18-1.040.49-1.49-0.65-0.15
23OebergHannaSWE
19-1.14-0.94-1.57-1.14-0.14
24Yurlova-PerchtEkaterinaRUS
19-0.82-0.74-1.01-0.82-0.13
25BescondAnaisFRA
20-1.03-0.55-0.34-0.81-0.11
26PerssonLinnSWE
18-0.89-0.91-0.13-0.81-0.10
27WiererDorotheaITA
21-1.24-0.73-1.43-1.11-0.09
28BrorssonMonaSWE
18-0.80-0.74-0.03-0.69-0.06
29HorchlerKarolinGER
14-0.41-1.01-0.59-0.61-0.06
30HauserLisa TheresaAUT
18-0.63-0.99-1.06-0.78-0.04
31FialkovaPaulinaSVK
19-1.01-0.62-0.39-0.83-0.02
32HinzVanessaGER
19-0.85-0.69-0.45-0.75+0.01
33EganClareUSA
14-0.79-0.640.09-0.64+0.01
34OjaReginaEST
15-0.06-0.29-0.79-0.21+0.02
35KryukoIrynaBLR
18-0.69-0.690.06-0.60+0.07
36DunkleeSusanUSA
14-0.720.20-0.61-0.44+0.14
37VittozziLisaITA
21-0.92-0.40-0.82-0.76+0.24
Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2019–20 season, overall performance, shooting, skiing

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