ski speed – real biathlon

The season is already more than halfway over. Who managed to improve their ski form during the winter? In this post, I looked at changes in ski speed for World Cup trimester 1 compared to World Cup trimester 2 (November/December 2020 vs. January 2021). For patrons, I recently updated the comparisons bonus section – there you can compare all shooting and skiing stats on your own, not only season-to-season, but also by trimester now.

Note: Only athletes with at least 5 non-team races in trimester 1 and trimester 2 of the current season are included in the tables. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per trimester).

Men

Surprise podium finisher Felix Leitner managed to improve his ski speed by roughly 1.3% compared to pre-Christmas races. Lukas Hofer improved by virtually the same amount, although he did so on a much higher level (he was the fourth-fastest skier overall for trimester 2). A lot has been made about Johannes Thingnes Bø not dominating as he did in previous seasons, however, his ski speed certainly isn’t to blame; he set the top course time in 5 out of 6 races in January!

Jakov Fak had a great start to his season (four top 10s in a row), but his ski speed is now trending in the wrong direction before the upcoming world championships in Pokljuka. Sebastian Samuelsson‘s speed has declined 1.4% post-Christmas, his average ski rank is 10.9 positions lower. Fabien Claude isn’t doing much better, he also has a ski rank now roughly ten places lower compared to World Cup trimester 1.

Changes in Ski Speed World Cup Trimester 1 vs. World Cup Trimester 2 | 2020–21 season

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
1	Leitner	Felix	AUT	6	19.8	-16.6	+0.71	-1.29
2	Hofer	Lukas	ITA	6	6.2	-7.2	-1.51	-1.26
3	Guigonnat	Antonin	FRA	6	20.0	-11.0	+0.44	-1.16
4	Eliseev	Matvey	RUS	5	18.8	-17.0	+1.07	-1.07
5	Doll	Benedikt	GER	6	12.5	-3.5	-0.92	-0.92
6	Finello	Jeremy	SUI	5	18.4	-9.2	+0.26	-0.90
7	Peiffer	Arnd	GER	6	11.5	-6.5	-0.73	-0.90
8	Boe	Johannes Thingnes	NOR	6	1.3	-1.1	-3.36	-0.70
9	Desthieux	Simon	FRA	6	14.7	-4.9	-0.15	-0.60
10	Eder	Simon	AUT	6	34.0	-5.2	+2.04	-0.54
11	Fillon Maillet	Quentin	FRA	5	8.6	-2.4	-1.11	-0.47
12	Laegreid	Sturla Holm	NOR	6	9.7	-3.9	-0.95	-0.41
13	Komatz	David	AUT	6	40.8	-5.6	+3.18	-0.37
14	Latypov	Eduard	RUS	6	16.2	-2.7	+0.18	-0.23
15	Dale	Johannes	NOR	6	3.0	-3.1	-1.99	-0.02
16	Jacquelin	Emilien	FRA	6	10.5	+0.3	-0.71	+0.10
17	Boe	Tarjei	NOR	6	6.0	+1.4	-1.55	+0.23
18	Fak	Jakov	SLO	6	23.2	+3.2	+0.71	+0.25
19	Ponsiluoma	Martin	SWE	6	7.8	+2.2	-1.40	+0.27
20	Rastorgujevs	Andrejs	LAT	5	22.8	+2.2	+0.82	+0.32
21	Lesser	Erik	GER	6	21.5	+2.8	+0.70	+0.34
22	Weger	Benjamin	SUI	6	24.8	+4.6	+0.98	+0.39
23	Femling	Peppe	SWE	5	42.2	-9.7	+4.06	+0.41
24	Bionaz	Didier	ITA	5	44.6	+0.2	+3.65	+0.45
25	Christiansen	Vetle Sjaastad	NOR	5	18.2	+4.9	+0.11	+0.74
26	Loginov	Alexander	RUS	5	21.2	+7.5	+0.52	+0.77
27	Bocharnikov	Sergey	BLR	5	32.6	+5.1	+1.98	+0.92
28	Claude	Fabien	FRA	6	19.8	+9.6	+0.39	+1.07
29	Samuelsson	Sebastian	SWE	6	19.2	+10.9	+0.26	+1.39

Women

Elena Kruchinkina, who set the fastest course time in the first Oberhof sprint (before that she never had a top 3 course time), is the most improved skier among regular female starters: 2.4% faster compared to December and her average ski rank is now 16.5 positions lower. Yuliia Dzhima and Svetlana Mironova come second and third, skiing 2.0% and 1.6% faster respectively. Two-time winner Julia Simon improved almost as much percentage-wise, but more importantly, she was the fourth-fastest skier in January.

Monika Hojnisz-Staręga is missing here, because she only appeared in three races in January, however, she would have topped the ranking, 3.4% faster than in trimester 1. Dorothea Wierer‘s skiing has improved slightly, but her average ski rank in January (16.8) is still way behind her average from last season (10.0). Elvira Öberg and Mona Brorsson have been struggling in recent races, both roughly 3% slower in January.

Changes in Ski Speed World Cup Trimester 1 vs. World Cup Trimester 2 | 2020–21 season

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
1	Kruchinkina	Elena	BLR	5	10.2	-16.5	-0.84	-2.39
2	Dzhima	Yuliia	UKR	5	23.0	-18.6	+0.81	-1.96
3	Mironova	Svetlana	RUS	6	12.2	-13.3	-0.57	-1.59
4	Simon	Julia	FRA	6	6.5	-12.8	-1.57	-1.42
5	Hettich	Janina	GER	6	27.5	-15.3	+1.62	-1.32
6	Hinz	Vanessa	GER	5	30.8	-14.2	+1.88	-1.15
7	Kaisheva	Uliana	RUS	6	25.8	-13.3	+1.55	-1.02
8	Vittozzi	Lisa	ITA	5	21.2	-10.2	+0.95	-0.88
9	Herrmann	Denise	GER	6	4.2	-4.2	-1.90	-0.65
10	Zdouc	Dunja	AUT	6	36.2	-15.4	+3.16	-0.55
11	Wierer	Dorothea	ITA	6	16.8	-4.3	+0.11	-0.49
12	Eckhoff	Tiril	NOR	6	2.3	-3.2	-2.38	-0.44
13	Hauser	Lisa Theresa	AUT	6	10.5	-2.2	-0.76	-0.39
14	Pavlova	Evgeniya	RUS	5	24.4	-5.1	+1.09	-0.35
15	Roeiseland	Marte Olsbu	NOR	6	2.8	-1.7	-2.24	-0.28
16	Davidova	Marketa	CZE	6	6.5	-0.4	-1.29	+0.14
17	Preuss	Franziska	GER	6	12.7	+0.6	-0.39	+0.17
18	Lunder	Emma	CAN	5	35.8	-1.3	+2.59	+0.18
19	Bescond	Anais	FRA	6	19.0	+3.0	+0.34	+0.18
20	Persson	Linn	SWE	6	23.3	+4.0	+0.68	+0.35
21	Alimbekava	Dzinara	BLR	6	15.7	+1.4	+0.12	+0.46
22	Braisaz-Bouchet	Justine	FRA	6	7.8	+2.1	-1.03	+0.59
23	Oeberg	Hanna	SWE	6	16.7	+4.7	-0.09	+0.62
24	Chevalier-Bouchet	Anais	FRA	6	13.2	+5.7	+0.08	+1.23
25	Tandrevold	Ingrid Landmark	NOR	5	20.0	+12.9	+0.58	+1.86
26	Egan	Clare	USA	6	34.7	+6.6	+3.12	+1.88
27	Knotten	Karoline Offigstad	NOR	6	47.3	+14.4	+4.56	+2.67
28	Oeberg	Elvira	SWE	6	24.5	+17.8	+1.25	+2.89
29	Brorsson	Mona	SWE	5	46.6	+17.7	+4.72	+3.17

Overall, the Swedes arguably stand out the most, doing particularly poorly after Christmas – all of their regular starters declined in the new year (often by a lot). Alternatively, you could look at it the other way around: they simply outperformed, especially in Kontiolahti, and now regressed to a more normal level.

Men

Sergey Bocharnikov was the most improved overall; he skied 4.7% faster and lowered his average ski rank by 38.7. Maybe even more impressive though, Sebastian Samuelsson and Martin Ponsiluoma both improved by 3.7%, and did so on a much higher level. Surprise winner Sturla Holm Lægreid does not show up here, because he only appeared in 4 races last season, however, he did improve his speed by 1.7%

Johannes Thingnes Bø continued where he left off: he was not simply the fastest overall (over 1% ahead of the 2nd fastest, his brother Tarjei Bø), he also set the top Course Time in both races. One of the pre-season favorites, Quentin Fillon Maillet, shot great (96.7%), but did not have the best weekend skiing-wise (his average ski rank increased from 5.6 to 15.0). Dmytro Pidruchnyi struggled the most, he was 3.3% slower than last season.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
1	Bocharnikov	Sergey	BLR	2	10.5	-38.7	-0.99	-4.67
2	Samuelsson	Sebastian	SWE	2	3.5	-25.2	-2.23	-3.69
3	Ponsiluoma	Martin	SWE	2	4.5	-22.6	-2.16	-3.67
4	Nelin	Jesper	SWE	2	8.5	-16.1	-0.95	-1.89
5	Fak	Jakov	SLO	2	17.5	-12.5	+0.10	-1.58
6	Moravec	Ondrej	CZE	2	31.5	-8.2	+1.45	-1.37
7	Christiansen	Vetle Sjaastad	NOR	2	9.5	-7.6	-1.26	-1.26
8	Boe	Tarjei	NOR	2	3.0	-5.0	-2.48	-1.15
9	Bauer	Klemen	SLO	2	36.0	-10.2	+2.17	-1.10
10	Jacquelin	Emilien	FRA	2	6.5	-5.2	-1.41	-0.92
11	Boe	Johannes Thingnes	NOR	2	1.0	-2.0	-3.61	-0.71
12	Claude	Florent	BEL	2	37.0	-3.2	+2.37	-0.58
13	Claude	Fabien	FRA	2	12.5	-2.5	-0.44	-0.48
14	Rastorgujevs	Andrejs	LAT	2	18.0	+0.4	+0.16	-0.31
15	Loginov	Alexander	RUS	2	13.5	-4.0	-0.21	-0.28
16	Hofer	Lukas	ITA	2	17.5	+1.8	-0.09	-0.20
17	Dale	Johannes	NOR	2	10.0	+0.2	-1.28	-0.09
18	Peiffer	Arnd	GER	2	16.5	+0.9	-0.13	-0.08
19	Iliev	Vladimir	BUL	2	24.0	+2.0	+0.72	+0.02
20	Krcmar	Michal	CZE	2	32.0	+4.8	+1.51	+0.02
21	Seppala	Tero	FIN	2	32.5	+4.7	+1.62	+0.29
22	Eliseev	Matvey	RUS	2	35.5	+7.9	+2.39	+0.31
23	Weger	Benjamin	SUI	2	34.0	+5.3	+2.00	+0.43
24	Leitner	Felix	AUT	2	30.0	+6.5	+1.36	+0.47
25	Guigonnat	Antonin	FRA	2	32.5	+10.5	+1.66	+0.52
26	Bjoentegaard	Erlend	NOR	2	16.5	+6.4	+0.08	+0.97
27	Desthieux	Simon	FRA	2	21.0	+8.7	+0.40	+1.04
28	Eder	Simon	AUT	2	45.0	+9.5	+3.60	+1.35
29	Pryma	Artem	UKR	2	43.0	+14.6	+3.13	+1.48
30	Fillon Maillet	Quentin	FRA	2	15.0	+9.4	-0.30	+1.76
31	Doll	Benedikt	GER	2	25.0	+15.1	+0.92	+1.92
32	Eberhard	Julian	AUT	2	29.5	+18.4	+1.38	+2.09
33	Kuehn	Johannes	GER	2	23.5	+16.8	+0.79	+2.14
34	Femling	Peppe	SWE	2	65.5	+17.9	+5.54	+2.31
35	Pidruchnyi	Dmytro	UKR	2	57.0	+33.1	+4.59	+3.33

Women

Among regular starters, Elvira Öberg was by far the most improved, 3.7% faster than last season. Her sister Hanna Öberg also improved a lot; the Kontiolahti sprint was her first ever race setting the top ski time. Lisa Theresa Hauser and Franziska Preuß also got considerably faster, but their improvement might not have been as obvious, because both hit only 25 out of 30 targets (83.3%), some 3-5% below their shooting percentage from last winter.

Lena Häcki, Julia Simon and Monika Hojnisz-Staręga all struggled to get going, skiing at least 3% slower. Hojnisz-Staręga had a particularly bad season opening, her average ski rank was 46.5 higher than last season, 5.0% behind her ski speed from last winter. Alongside the Öberg sisters, Tiril Eckhoff was fastest overall (but only managed a 66.7% hit rate). Last year’s top skier, Denise Herrmann, was not at her peak speed yet (+1.2%), however, her career-high 86.7% hit rate looks promising.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
1	Oeberg	Elvira	SWE	2	3.5	-22.0	-2.07	-3.68
2	Hauser	Lisa Theresa	AUT	2	16.0	-18.7	+0.16	-1.93
3	Oeberg	Hanna	SWE	2	3.5	-10.6	-2.02	-1.63
4	Preuss	Franziska	GER	2	12.0	-10.2	-0.26	-0.92
5	Talihaerm	Johanna	EST	2	50.0	-4.3	+3.85	-0.64
6	Tandrevold	Ingrid Landmark	NOR	2	6.0	-6.7	-1.18	-0.63
7	Brorsson	Mona	SWE	2	22.5	-5.3	+0.65	-0.62
8	Gasparin	Aita	SUI	2	47.0	+3.8	+3.34	-0.11
9	Kryuko	Iryna	BLR	2	27.5	-1.0	+1.58	-0.09
10	Lunder	Emma	CAN	2	40.5	+2.0	+2.70	-0.09
11	Charvatova	Lucie	CZE	2	26.0	+1.1	+1.43	-0.05
12	Davidova	Marketa	CZE	2	10.5	-0.3	-0.55	+0.28
13	Braisaz-Bouchet	Justine	FRA	2	6.5	+0.7	-1.71	+0.30
14	Bescond	Anais	FRA	2	17.5	+0.1	+0.40	+0.33
15	Eckhoff	Tiril	NOR	2	4.0	-1.5	-2.15	+0.35
16	Gasparin	Elisa	SUI	2	61.5	+11.3	+4.42	+0.64
17	Persson	Linn	SWE	2	26.5	+3.9	+1.50	+0.69
18	Eder	Mari	FIN	2	16.5	+3.0	+0.07	+0.71
19	Rieder	Christina	AUT	2	72.5	+14.2	+6.25	+0.92
20	Sanfilippo	Federica	ITA	2	47.0	+8.4	+3.54	+1.07
21	Innerhofer	Katharina	AUT	2	25.0	+6.6	+1.37	+1.12
22	Puskarcikova	Eva	CZE	2	55.5	+18.4	+4.10	+1.12
23	Herrmann	Denise	GER	2	6.5	+3.9	-1.85	+1.18
24	Zbylut	Kinga	POL	2	71.0	+18.1	+5.81	+1.63
25	Oja	Regina	EST	2	79.5	+20.2	+7.41	+1.90
26	Zuk	Kamila	POL	2	38.0	+17.5	+2.42	+2.05
27	Wierer	Dorothea	ITA	2	25.0	+15.0	+1.33	+2.32
28	Hinz	Vanessa	GER	2	50.5	+27.4	+3.62	+2.58
29	Vittozzi	Lisa	ITA	2	43.5	+23.5	+3.27	+2.74
30	Kuklina	Larisa	RUS	2	58.0	+22.7	+5.03	+2.77
31	Semerenko	Vita	UKR	2	73.5	+28.5	+6.25	+2.89
32	Haecki	Lena	SUI	2	45.5	+28.6	+3.35	+3.17
33	Simon	Julia	FRA	2	47.5	+33.0	+3.28	+3.38
34	Hojnisz-Starega	Monika	POL	2	63.5	+46.5	+4.87	+5.01

Ski speed – First vs. second trimester

Men

Women

Ski Speed comparison season-to-season

Men

Women

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