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Tag: ski speed

Ski speed – First vs. second trimester

Posted on 2021-01-28 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Ski speed – First vs. second trimester

The season is already more than halfway over. Who managed to improve their ski form during the winter? In this post, I looked at changes in ski speed for World Cup trimester 1 compared to World Cup trimester 2 (November/December 2020 vs. January 2021). For patrons, I recently updated the comparisons bonus section – there you can compare all shooting and skiing stats on your own, not only season-to-season, but also by trimester now.


Note: Only athletes with at least 5 non-team races in trimester 1 and trimester 2 of the current season are included in the tables. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per trimester).


Men

Surprise podium finisher Felix Leitner managed to improve his ski speed by roughly 1.3% compared to pre-Christmas races. Lukas Hofer improved by virtually the same amount, although he did so on a much higher level (he was the fourth-fastest skier overall for trimester 2). A lot has been made about Johannes Thingnes Bø not dominating as he did in previous seasons, however, his ski speed certainly isn’t to blame; he set the top course time in 5 out of 6 races in January!

Jakov Fak had a great start to his season (four top 10s in a row), but his ski speed is now trending in the wrong direction before the upcoming world championships in Pokljuka. Sebastian Samuelsson‘s speed has declined 1.4% post-Christmas, his average ski rank is 10.9 positions lower. Fabien Claude isn’t doing much better, he also has a ski rank now roughly ten places lower compared to World Cup trimester 1.

Changes in Ski Speed World Cup Trimester 1 vs. World Cup Trimester 2 | 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1LeitnerFelixAUT
619.8-16.6+0.71-1.29
2HoferLukasITA
66.2-7.2-1.51-1.26
3GuigonnatAntoninFRA
620.0-11.0+0.44-1.16
4EliseevMatveyRUS
518.8-17.0+1.07-1.07
5DollBenediktGER
612.5-3.5-0.92-0.92
6FinelloJeremySUI
518.4-9.2+0.26-0.90
7PeifferArndGER
611.5-6.5-0.73-0.90
8BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
61.3-1.1-3.36-0.70
9DesthieuxSimonFRA
614.7-4.9-0.15-0.60
10EderSimonAUT
634.0-5.2+2.04-0.54
11Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
58.6-2.4-1.11-0.47
12LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
69.7-3.9-0.95-0.41
13KomatzDavidAUT
640.8-5.6+3.18-0.37
14LatypovEduardRUS
616.2-2.7+0.18-0.23
15DaleJohannesNOR
63.0-3.1-1.99-0.02
16JacquelinEmilienFRA
610.5+0.3-0.71+0.10
17BoeTarjeiNOR
66.0+1.4-1.55+0.23
18FakJakovSLO
623.2+3.2+0.71+0.25
19PonsiluomaMartinSWE
67.8+2.2-1.40+0.27
20RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
522.8+2.2+0.82+0.32
21LesserErikGER
621.5+2.8+0.70+0.34
22WegerBenjaminSUI
624.8+4.6+0.98+0.39
23FemlingPeppeSWE
542.2-9.7+4.06+0.41
24BionazDidierITA
544.6+0.2+3.65+0.45
25ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
518.2+4.9+0.11+0.74
26LoginovAlexanderRUS
521.2+7.5+0.52+0.77
27BocharnikovSergeyBLR
532.6+5.1+1.98+0.92
28ClaudeFabienFRA
619.8+9.6+0.39+1.07
29SamuelssonSebastianSWE
619.2+10.9+0.26+1.39


Women

Elena Kruchinkina, who set the fastest course time in the first Oberhof sprint (before that she never had a top 3 course time), is the most improved skier among regular female starters: 2.4% faster compared to December and her average ski rank is now 16.5 positions lower. Yuliia Dzhima and Svetlana Mironova come second and third, skiing 2.0% and 1.6% faster respectively. Two-time winner Julia Simon improved almost as much percentage-wise, but more importantly, she was the fourth-fastest skier in January.

Monika Hojnisz-Staręga is missing here, because she only appeared in three races in January, however, she would have topped the ranking, 3.4% faster than in trimester 1. Dorothea Wierer‘s skiing has improved slightly, but her average ski rank in January (16.8) is still way behind her average from last season (10.0). Elvira Öberg and Mona Brorsson have been struggling in recent races, both roughly 3% slower in January.

Changes in Ski Speed World Cup Trimester 1 vs. World Cup Trimester 2 | 2020–21 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1KruchinkinaElenaBLR
510.2-16.5-0.84-2.39
2DzhimaYuliiaUKR
523.0-18.6+0.81-1.96
3MironovaSvetlanaRUS
612.2-13.3-0.57-1.59
4SimonJuliaFRA
66.5-12.8-1.57-1.42
5HettichJaninaGER
627.5-15.3+1.62-1.32
6HinzVanessaGER
530.8-14.2+1.88-1.15
7KaishevaUlianaRUS
625.8-13.3+1.55-1.02
8VittozziLisaITA
521.2-10.2+0.95-0.88
9HerrmannDeniseGER
64.2-4.2-1.90-0.65
10ZdoucDunjaAUT
636.2-15.4+3.16-0.55
11WiererDorotheaITA
616.8-4.3+0.11-0.49
12EckhoffTirilNOR
62.3-3.2-2.38-0.44
13HauserLisa TheresaAUT
610.5-2.2-0.76-0.39
14PavlovaEvgeniyaRUS
524.4-5.1+1.09-0.35
15RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
62.8-1.7-2.24-0.28
16DavidovaMarketaCZE
66.5-0.4-1.29+0.14
17PreussFranziskaGER
612.7+0.6-0.39+0.17
18LunderEmmaCAN
535.8-1.3+2.59+0.18
19BescondAnaisFRA
619.0+3.0+0.34+0.18
20PerssonLinnSWE
623.3+4.0+0.68+0.35
21AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
615.7+1.4+0.12+0.46
22Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
67.8+2.1-1.03+0.59
23OebergHannaSWE
616.7+4.7-0.09+0.62
24Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
613.2+5.7+0.08+1.23
25TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
520.0+12.9+0.58+1.86
26EganClareUSA
634.7+6.6+3.12+1.88
27KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
647.3+14.4+4.56+2.67
28OebergElviraSWE
624.5+17.8+1.25+2.89
29BrorssonMonaSWE
546.6+17.7+4.72+3.17

Overall, the Swedes arguably stand out the most, doing particularly poorly after Christmas – all of their regular starters declined in the new year (often by a lot). Alternatively, you could look at it the other way around: they simply outperformed, especially in Kontiolahti, and now regressed to a more normal level.

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged ski speed

Ski Speed comparison season-to-season

Posted on 2020-12-02 | by real biathlon | 5 Comments on Ski Speed comparison season-to-season

It’s probably no use to look at shooting percentages after only 30 shots at the beginning of a season, however, the ski speed at the first World Cup weekend might already tell us at least a little bit where the season is going and how the ski form for some of the top athletes might have changed over the summer.

If you can’t find a specific athlete, you can always look up complete World Cup statistics for the ongoing season here:

  • Ski speed: Men | Women
  • Shooting percentage: Men | Women
  • Shooting Times: Men | Women

Note: Only athletes with at least 15 races last season and 2 races this season are included in the two tables below. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per season).


Men

Sergey Bocharnikov was the most improved overall; he skied 4.7% faster and lowered his average ski rank by 38.7. Maybe even more impressive though, Sebastian Samuelsson and Martin Ponsiluoma both improved by 3.7%, and did so on a much higher level. Surprise winner Sturla Holm Lægreid does not show up here, because he only appeared in 4 races last season, however, he did improve his speed by 1.7%

Johannes Thingnes Bø continued where he left off: he was not simply the fastest overall (over 1% ahead of the 2nd fastest, his brother Tarjei Bø), he also set the top Course Time in both races. One of the pre-season favorites, Quentin Fillon Maillet, shot great (96.7%), but did not have the best weekend skiing-wise (his average ski rank increased from 5.6 to 15.0). Dmytro Pidruchnyi struggled the most, he was 3.3% slower than last season.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1BocharnikovSergeyBLR
210.5-38.7-0.99-4.67
2SamuelssonSebastianSWE
23.5-25.2-2.23-3.69
3PonsiluomaMartinSWE
24.5-22.6-2.16-3.67
4NelinJesperSWE
28.5-16.1-0.95-1.89
5FakJakovSLO
217.5-12.5+0.10-1.58
6MoravecOndrejCZE
231.5-8.2+1.45-1.37
7ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
29.5-7.6-1.26-1.26
8BoeTarjeiNOR
23.0-5.0-2.48-1.15
9BauerKlemenSLO
236.0-10.2+2.17-1.10
10JacquelinEmilienFRA
26.5-5.2-1.41-0.92
11BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
21.0-2.0-3.61-0.71
12ClaudeFlorentBEL
237.0-3.2+2.37-0.58
13ClaudeFabienFRA
212.5-2.5-0.44-0.48
14RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
218.0+0.4+0.16-0.31
15LoginovAlexanderRUS
213.5-4.0-0.21-0.28
16HoferLukasITA
217.5+1.8-0.09-0.20
17DaleJohannesNOR
210.0+0.2-1.28-0.09
18PeifferArndGER
216.5+0.9-0.13-0.08
19IlievVladimirBUL
224.0+2.0+0.72+0.02
20KrcmarMichalCZE
232.0+4.8+1.51+0.02
21SeppalaTeroFIN
232.5+4.7+1.62+0.29
22EliseevMatveyRUS
235.5+7.9+2.39+0.31
23WegerBenjaminSUI
234.0+5.3+2.00+0.43
24LeitnerFelixAUT
230.0+6.5+1.36+0.47
25GuigonnatAntoninFRA
232.5+10.5+1.66+0.52
26BjoentegaardErlendNOR
216.5+6.4+0.08+0.97
27DesthieuxSimonFRA
221.0+8.7+0.40+1.04
28EderSimonAUT
245.0+9.5+3.60+1.35
29PrymaArtemUKR
243.0+14.6+3.13+1.48
30Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
215.0+9.4-0.30+1.76
31DollBenediktGER
225.0+15.1+0.92+1.92
32EberhardJulianAUT
229.5+18.4+1.38+2.09
33KuehnJohannesGER
223.5+16.8+0.79+2.14
34FemlingPeppeSWE
265.5+17.9+5.54+2.31
35PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
257.0+33.1+4.59+3.33

Women

Among regular starters, Elvira Öberg was by far the most improved, 3.7% faster than last season. Her sister Hanna Öberg also improved a lot; the Kontiolahti sprint was her first ever race setting the top ski time. Lisa Theresa Hauser and Franziska Preuß also got considerably faster, but their improvement might not have been as obvious, because both hit only 25 out of 30 targets (83.3%), some 3-5% below their shooting percentage from last winter.

Lena Häcki, Julia Simon and Monika Hojnisz-Staręga all struggled to get going, skiing at least 3% slower. Hojnisz-Staręga had a particularly bad season opening, her average ski rank was 46.5 higher than last season, 5.0% behind her ski speed from last winter. Alongside the Öberg sisters, Tiril Eckhoff was fastest overall (but only managed a 66.7% hit rate). Last year’s top skier, Denise Herrmann, was not at her peak speed yet (+1.2%), however, her career-high 86.7% hit rate looks promising.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1OebergElviraSWE
23.5-22.0-2.07-3.68
2HauserLisa TheresaAUT
216.0-18.7+0.16-1.93
3OebergHannaSWE
23.5-10.6-2.02-1.63
4PreussFranziskaGER
212.0-10.2-0.26-0.92
5TalihaermJohannaEST
250.0-4.3+3.85-0.64
6TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
26.0-6.7-1.18-0.63
7BrorssonMonaSWE
222.5-5.3+0.65-0.62
8GasparinAitaSUI
247.0+3.8+3.34-0.11
9KryukoIrynaBLR
227.5-1.0+1.58-0.09
10LunderEmmaCAN
240.5+2.0+2.70-0.09
11CharvatovaLucieCZE
226.0+1.1+1.43-0.05
12DavidovaMarketaCZE
210.5-0.3-0.55+0.28
13Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
26.5+0.7-1.71+0.30
14BescondAnaisFRA
217.5+0.1+0.40+0.33
15EckhoffTirilNOR
24.0-1.5-2.15+0.35
16GasparinElisaSUI
261.5+11.3+4.42+0.64
17PerssonLinnSWE
226.5+3.9+1.50+0.69
18EderMariFIN
216.5+3.0+0.07+0.71
19RiederChristinaAUT
272.5+14.2+6.25+0.92
20SanfilippoFedericaITA
247.0+8.4+3.54+1.07
21InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
225.0+6.6+1.37+1.12
22PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
255.5+18.4+4.10+1.12
23HerrmannDeniseGER
26.5+3.9-1.85+1.18
24ZbylutKingaPOL
271.0+18.1+5.81+1.63
25OjaReginaEST
279.5+20.2+7.41+1.90
26ZukKamilaPOL
238.0+17.5+2.42+2.05
27WiererDorotheaITA
225.0+15.0+1.33+2.32
28HinzVanessaGER
250.5+27.4+3.62+2.58
29VittozziLisaITA
243.5+23.5+3.27+2.74
30KuklinaLarisaRUS
258.0+22.7+5.03+2.77
31SemerenkoVitaUKR
273.5+28.5+6.25+2.89
32HaeckiLenaSUI
245.5+28.6+3.35+3.17
33SimonJuliaFRA
247.5+33.0+3.28+3.38
34Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
263.5+46.5+4.87+5.01

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, ski speed, skiing

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