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Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

Posted on 2021-02-06 | by real biathlon

With the World Championships around the corner, it’s worth looking at the best-performing athletes after Christmas again. I think it’s fair to assume that the majority of medal winners will come from in-form athletes going into the championship, although history tells us there are a handful of surprises usually. Below, I listed the best biathletes (ranked by Overall Performance Scores) for the January races โ€“ full results for the entire field here: men & women.


Note: Only athletes with at least 3 races in January are included. The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

World Cup leader Johannes Thingnes Bรธ tops the ranking unsurprisingly; he won 3 out of 6 races after Christmas and set the top ski time in 5 of them. However, his overall score is down from last season, because his non-team shooting percentage is 6.3% lower. Sturla Holm Lรฆgreid‘s hit rate also declined slightly in January, but it still stands at an incredible 92.9%, giving him 4 wins this season. Even though Lukas Hoferย failed to make a single podium so far, he has been very consistent; theย fourth-fastest skier overall and top 6 in all but one of the races in trimester 2.

Quentin Fillon Maillet‘s average race rank wouldn’t tell you (forgetting a penalty loop in Oberhof is to blame for that), but he has been best of the rest behind the Norwegians this season (4 podiums in total, including 2 in the last 2 races in Antholz). Tarjei Bรธ is currently at his best ski speed since 2010โ€“11 (third-fastest overall), but he is also the slowest shooter in the top 10. Arnd Peiffer‘s hit rate of 90.0% this winter is a tied career-best for him, Johannes Dale is the field’s second-fastest skier (both for the season and January-only).

The other two race winners, Alexander Loginov and Sebastian Samuelsson, come to Pokljuka with some question marks. Reigning sprint world champion Loginov only had one top 6 result all season, his win in Antholz, while Samuelsson’s ski form decline Dec. to Jan. is the worst of the men’s field. The other multiple podium finishers this winter are: ร‰milien Jacquelin, Martin Ponsiluoma and Fabien Claude (who also saw a big decline in January).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
64.746.8-1.98-0.35-0.70-1.36
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
65.745.3-1.30-1.17-1.23-1.25
3HoferLukasITA
66.338.8-1.45-0.65-0.84-1.15
4Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
521.433.4-1.36-0.55-1.55-1.15
5BoeTarjeiNOR
67.740.8-1.47-0.86-0.23-1.14
6PeifferArndGER
614.529.8-1.24-1.06-0.62-1.11
7DaleJohannesNOR
610.734.2-1.60-0.45-0.14-1.09
8PonsiluomaMartinSWE
611.230.3-1.42-0.04-1.34-1.01
9DollBenediktGER
615.825.5-1.29-0.35-1.13-1.00
10LoginovAlexanderRUS
515.429.6-0.99-1.06-0.66-0.97
11JacquelinEmilienFRA
615.225.8-1.23-0.35-1.00-0.95
12FakJakovSLO
615.527.7-0.82-1.06-1.23-0.94
13SamuelssonSebastianSWE
619.223.0-0.96-0.86-0.51-0.87
14LesserErikGER
620.022.8-0.82-0.76-1.34-0.87
15WegerBenjaminSUI
615.527.2-0.75-1.17-0.69-0.86
16DesthieuxSimonFRA
615.825.3-1.07-0.35-1.00-0.85
17ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
521.626.0-1.01-0.55-0.53-0.82
18BjoentegaardErlendNOR
414.327.3-0.80-1.06-0.28-0.82
19EderSimonAUT
619.024.0-0.45-1.37-1.29-0.82
20EliseevMatveyRUS
515.225.0-0.64-1.06-0.86-0.79
21YaliotnauRamanBLR
329.318.0-1.13-0.30-0.08-0.76
22PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
438.511.4-1.070.13-0.89-0.70
23WindischDominikITA
533.014.2-1.110.09-0.47-0.69
24HornPhilippGER
433.010.3-1.18-0.040.21-0.68
25SmolskiAntonBLR
432.58.8-0.76-0.55-0.53-0.67
26PrymaArtemUKR
432.810.0-0.68-0.55-0.84-0.66
27SeppalaTeroFIN
434.38.0-1.07-0.040.21-0.62
28LeitnerFelixAUT
625.716.5-0.82-0.550.28-0.61
29BocharnikovSergeyBLR
534.014.8-0.58-0.68-0.48-0.59
30ClaudeFabienFRA
630.518.3-0.920.26-0.82-0.56
31FinelloJeremySUI
535.09.4-1.060.34-0.20-0.55
32GuigonnatAntoninFRA
626.213.5-0.900.26-0.70-0.54
33GiacomelTommasoITA
443.52.5-0.700.30-1.60-0.52
34RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
533.28.4-0.900.21-0.26-0.50
35NelinJesperSWE
340.05.8-1.170.161.18-0.50
36DohertySeanUSA
439.84.0-0.36-0.72-0.60-0.50
37LatypovEduardRUS
624.516.7-0.970.260.04-0.49
38ReesRomanGER
328.313.7-0.55-0.650.31-0.47
39KomatzDavidAUT
622.817.0-0.11-1.370.03-0.46
40GowChristianCAN
445.39.8-0.22-0.55-1.30-0.44
41DudchenkoAntonUKR
326.317.3-0.01-1.27-0.38-0.42
42GowScottCAN
448.50.8-0.16-0.38-1.42-0.38
43BormoliniThomasITA
442.09.5-0.52-0.210.01-0.37
44DombrovskiKarolLTU
447.84.5-0.05-0.890.15-0.27
45NordgrenLeifUSA
446.30.50.14-1.06-0.07-0.23
46StreltsovKirillRUS
443.36.3-0.26-0.21-0.06-0.22
47StroliaVytautasLTU
442.08.8-0.410.13-0.01-0.21
48StvrteckyJakubCZE
458.81.5-0.860.641.07-0.20
49FemlingPeppeSWE
537.45.00.03-0.42-0.67-0.19
50ClaudeEmilienFRA
454.82.5-0.10-0.38-0.03-0.17


Women

Lisa Theresa Hauser won most World Cup points in January, something few would have predicted before Christmas. Being both accurate (93.0%) and fast (26.2s) makes her the most efficient shot on the women’s side at the moment. Combined with her new-found top10 ski speed, she is a threat in all events. Tiril Eckhoff followed her trajectory from last season almost exactly: four incredible World Cups in a row, followed by a considerable dip in form. Eckhoff has most wins (6) and podiums (8), but will her disappointing showing in Antholz last year be on her mind?

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Rรธiseland has made only one podium in trimester 2, however, she remains virtually tied with Eckhoff as the field’s top skier. Hanna ร–berg managed two wins and the second-most podiums this winter (7). Julia Simon, who alongside ร–berg is the fastest shooter, won two of the last 4 races, still, she is arguably the least consistent (last four positions: 59-1-62-1). Monika Hojnisz-Starฤ™ga comes 5th, but she only did 3 races (2 of them sprints), which inflates her ski speed for this ranking. Nonetheless, she is much improved, winning the European Championship Individual recently.

Dorothea Wierer‘s ski speed improved after Christmas (still off her pace from the last two seasons); in contrast, Franziska PreuรŸ is skiing faster than ever. Anaรฏs Chevalier-Bouchet‘s statistics stand out in particular: her hit rate is roughly 6% lower than in any of her previous five seasons, at the same time she currently skies roughly 1.5% faster than ever before. The two other multiple podium finishers, Dzinara Alimbekava and Elvira ร–berg, have both been struggling in January (no top 6 result).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1HauserLisa TheresaAUT
64.246.8-1.09-1.26-1.62-1.20
2EckhoffTirilNOR
66.245.2-1.48-0.51-1.24-1.17
3RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
610.035.0-1.44-0.51-0.82-1.10
4OebergHannaSWE
68.539.7-0.93-0.79-2.00-1.02
5Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
314.727.3-1.14-0.98-0.47-1.01
6WiererDorotheaITA
611.234.2-0.88-0.89-1.83-1.00
7MironovaSvetlanaRUS
610.732.2-1.05-0.60-1.48-0.97
8PreussFranziskaGER
612.832.2-1.00-0.70-1.28-0.95
9DavidovaMarketaCZE
614.227.8-1.22-0.51-0.38-0.91
10DzhimaYuliiaUKR
512.032.0-0.82-1.10-0.57-0.87
11SimonJuliaFRA
623.731.5-1.280.52-1.93-0.84
12Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
615.027.3-1.16-0.32-0.47-0.83
13PavlovaEvgeniyaRUS
519.423.2-0.76-0.51-0.97-0.71
14HerrmannDeniseGER
620.020.2-1.360.52-0.37-0.70
15KaishevaUlianaRUS
618.322.5-0.54-0.79-1.22-0.69
16PerssonLinnSWE
618.822.2-0.75-0.890.16-0.68
17HaeckiLenaSUI
432.09.0-0.58-0.51-1.45-0.66
18BescondAnaisFRA
616.024.8-0.83-0.600.10-0.65
19AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
619.320.3-0.88-0.32-0.26-0.64
20HettichJaninaGER
621.520.7-0.52-1.07-0.11-0.63
21GasparinSelinaSUI
434.010.5-1.10-0.040.30-0.63
22HinzVanessaGER
523.018.0-0.57-0.86-0.33-0.63
23BendikaBaibaLAT
436.08.5-1.200.43-0.34-0.63
24Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
611.531.0-0.88-0.14-0.45-0.61
25KuklinaLarisaRUS
522.418.6-0.27-0.98-1.29-0.60
26SolaHannaBLR
435.56.3-1.240.89-0.91-0.58
27OebergElviraSWE
623.818.2-0.61-0.42-0.83-0.58
28KruchinkinaElenaBLR
527.419.0-1.210.310.80-0.53
29LienIdaNOR
438.08.5-0.990.110.45-0.50
30CadurischIreneSUI
441.34.8-0.25-0.51-1.65-0.49
31EderMariFIN
342.02.8-1.06-0.041.27-0.48
32LunderEmmaCAN
533.011.5-0.23-0.63-1.36-0.48
33ColomboCarolineFRA
431.810.0-0.46-0.51-0.28-0.45
34KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
628.212.30.18-1.45-1.05-0.44
35VittozziLisaITA
532.417.0-0.710.31-0.84-0.43
36ZdoucDunjaAUT
622.717.3-0.15-0.98-0.26-0.41
37SchwaigerJuliaAUT
434.011.0-0.60-0.200.15-0.39
38PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
442.56.8-0.50-0.510.53-0.38
39TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
535.011.0-0.730.090.23-0.38
40BankesMeganCAN
351.75.3-0.17-0.28-1.56-0.37
41AvvakumovaEkaterinaKOR
531.011.4-0.28-0.63-0.05-0.36
42ZukKamilaPOL
341.30.7-0.77-0.041.08-0.34
43InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
357.00.7-1.130.890.66-0.33
44TalihaermJohannaEST
445.53.5-0.30-0.981.25-0.31
45GasparinElisaSUI
442.34.0-0.430.11-0.43-0.27
46KazakevichIrinaRUS
457.51.0-0.820.740.07-0.26
47ChevalierChloeFRA
445.57.3-0.750.270.93-0.25
48JislovaJessicaCZE
353.00.3-0.27-0.510.63-0.23
49GasparinAitaSUI
442.85.8-0.01-0.36-0.97-0.23
50BrorssonMonaSWE
538.015.00.18-0.75-0.77-0.20

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