Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

With the World Championships around the corner, it’s worth looking at the best-performing athletes after Christmas again. I think it’s fair to assume that the majority of medal winners will come from in-form athletes going into the championship, although history tells us there are a handful of surprises usually. Below, I listed the best biathletes (ranked by Overall Performance Scores) for the January races – full results for the entire field here: men & women.

Note: Only athletes with at least 3 races in January are included. The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.

Men

World Cup leader Johannes Thingnes Bø tops the ranking unsurprisingly; he won 3 out of 6 races after Christmas and set the top ski time in 5 of them. However, his overall score is down from last season, because his non-team shooting percentage is 6.3% lower. Sturla Holm Lægreid‘s hit rate also declined slightly in January, but it still stands at an incredible 92.9%, giving him 4 wins this season. Even though Lukas Hofer failed to make a single podium so far, he has been very consistent; the fourth-fastest skier overall and top 6 in all but one of the races in trimester 2.

Quentin Fillon Maillet‘s average race rank wouldn’t tell you (forgetting a penalty loop in Oberhof is to blame for that), but he has been best of the rest behind the Norwegians this season (4 podiums in total, including 2 in the last 2 races in Antholz). Tarjei Bø is currently at his best ski speed since 2010–11 (third-fastest overall), but he is also the slowest shooter in the top 10. Arnd Peiffer‘s hit rate of 90.0% this winter is a tied career-best for him, Johannes Dale is the field’s second-fastest skier (both for the season and January-only).

The other two race winners, Alexander Loginov and Sebastian Samuelsson, come to Pokljuka with some question marks. Reigning sprint world champion Loginov only had one top 6 result all season, his win in Antholz, while Samuelsson’s ski form decline Dec. to Jan. is the worst of the men’s field. The other multiple podium finishers this winter are: Émilien Jacquelin, Martin Ponsiluoma and Fabien Claude (who also saw a big decline in January).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
1	Boe	Johannes Thingnes	NOR	6	4.7	46.8	-1.98	-0.35	-0.70	-1.36
2	Laegreid	Sturla Holm	NOR	6	5.7	45.3	-1.30	-1.17	-1.23	-1.25
3	Hofer	Lukas	ITA	6	6.3	38.8	-1.45	-0.65	-0.84	-1.15
4	Fillon Maillet	Quentin	FRA	5	21.4	33.4	-1.36	-0.55	-1.55	-1.15
5	Boe	Tarjei	NOR	6	7.7	40.8	-1.47	-0.86	-0.23	-1.14
6	Peiffer	Arnd	GER	6	14.5	29.8	-1.24	-1.06	-0.62	-1.11
7	Dale	Johannes	NOR	6	10.7	34.2	-1.60	-0.45	-0.14	-1.09
8	Ponsiluoma	Martin	SWE	6	11.2	30.3	-1.42	-0.04	-1.34	-1.01
9	Doll	Benedikt	GER	6	15.8	25.5	-1.29	-0.35	-1.13	-1.00
10	Loginov	Alexander	RUS	5	15.4	29.6	-0.99	-1.06	-0.66	-0.97
11	Jacquelin	Emilien	FRA	6	15.2	25.8	-1.23	-0.35	-1.00	-0.95
12	Fak	Jakov	SLO	6	15.5	27.7	-0.82	-1.06	-1.23	-0.94
13	Samuelsson	Sebastian	SWE	6	19.2	23.0	-0.96	-0.86	-0.51	-0.87
14	Lesser	Erik	GER	6	20.0	22.8	-0.82	-0.76	-1.34	-0.87
15	Weger	Benjamin	SUI	6	15.5	27.2	-0.75	-1.17	-0.69	-0.86
16	Desthieux	Simon	FRA	6	15.8	25.3	-1.07	-0.35	-1.00	-0.85
17	Christiansen	Vetle Sjaastad	NOR	5	21.6	26.0	-1.01	-0.55	-0.53	-0.82
18	Bjoentegaard	Erlend	NOR	4	14.3	27.3	-0.80	-1.06	-0.28	-0.82
19	Eder	Simon	AUT	6	19.0	24.0	-0.45	-1.37	-1.29	-0.82
20	Eliseev	Matvey	RUS	5	15.2	25.0	-0.64	-1.06	-0.86	-0.79
21	Yaliotnau	Raman	BLR	3	29.3	18.0	-1.13	-0.30	-0.08	-0.76
22	Pidruchnyi	Dmytro	UKR	4	38.5	11.4	-1.07	0.13	-0.89	-0.70
23	Windisch	Dominik	ITA	5	33.0	14.2	-1.11	0.09	-0.47	-0.69
24	Horn	Philipp	GER	4	33.0	10.3	-1.18	-0.04	0.21	-0.68
25	Smolski	Anton	BLR	4	32.5	8.8	-0.76	-0.55	-0.53	-0.67
26	Pryma	Artem	UKR	4	32.8	10.0	-0.68	-0.55	-0.84	-0.66
27	Seppala	Tero	FIN	4	34.3	8.0	-1.07	-0.04	0.21	-0.62
28	Leitner	Felix	AUT	6	25.7	16.5	-0.82	-0.55	0.28	-0.61
29	Bocharnikov	Sergey	BLR	5	34.0	14.8	-0.58	-0.68	-0.48	-0.59
30	Claude	Fabien	FRA	6	30.5	18.3	-0.92	0.26	-0.82	-0.56
31	Finello	Jeremy	SUI	5	35.0	9.4	-1.06	0.34	-0.20	-0.55
32	Guigonnat	Antonin	FRA	6	26.2	13.5	-0.90	0.26	-0.70	-0.54
33	Giacomel	Tommaso	ITA	4	43.5	2.5	-0.70	0.30	-1.60	-0.52
34	Rastorgujevs	Andrejs	LAT	5	33.2	8.4	-0.90	0.21	-0.26	-0.50
35	Nelin	Jesper	SWE	3	40.0	5.8	-1.17	0.16	1.18	-0.50
36	Doherty	Sean	USA	4	39.8	4.0	-0.36	-0.72	-0.60	-0.50
37	Latypov	Eduard	RUS	6	24.5	16.7	-0.97	0.26	0.04	-0.49
38	Rees	Roman	GER	3	28.3	13.7	-0.55	-0.65	0.31	-0.47
39	Komatz	David	AUT	6	22.8	17.0	-0.11	-1.37	0.03	-0.46
40	Gow	Christian	CAN	4	45.3	9.8	-0.22	-0.55	-1.30	-0.44
41	Dudchenko	Anton	UKR	3	26.3	17.3	-0.01	-1.27	-0.38	-0.42
42	Gow	Scott	CAN	4	48.5	0.8	-0.16	-0.38	-1.42	-0.38
43	Bormolini	Thomas	ITA	4	42.0	9.5	-0.52	-0.21	0.01	-0.37
44	Dombrovski	Karol	LTU	4	47.8	4.5	-0.05	-0.89	0.15	-0.27
45	Nordgren	Leif	USA	4	46.3	0.5	0.14	-1.06	-0.07	-0.23
46	Streltsov	Kirill	RUS	4	43.3	6.3	-0.26	-0.21	-0.06	-0.22
47	Strolia	Vytautas	LTU	4	42.0	8.8	-0.41	0.13	-0.01	-0.21
48	Stvrtecky	Jakub	CZE	4	58.8	1.5	-0.86	0.64	1.07	-0.20
49	Femling	Peppe	SWE	5	37.4	5.0	0.03	-0.42	-0.67	-0.19
50	Claude	Emilien	FRA	4	54.8	2.5	-0.10	-0.38	-0.03	-0.17

Women

Lisa Theresa Hauser won most World Cup points in January, something few would have predicted before Christmas. Being both accurate (93.0%) and fast (26.2s) makes her the most efficient shot on the women’s side at the moment. Combined with her new-found top10 ski speed, she is a threat in all events. Tiril Eckhoff followed her trajectory from last season almost exactly: four incredible World Cups in a row, followed by a considerable dip in form. Eckhoff has most wins (6) and podiums (8), but will her disappointing showing in Antholz last year be on her mind?

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Røiseland has made only one podium in trimester 2, however, she remains virtually tied with Eckhoff as the field’s top skier. Hanna Öberg managed two wins and the second-most podiums this winter (7). Julia Simon, who alongside Öberg is the fastest shooter, won two of the last 4 races, still, she is arguably the least consistent (last four positions: 59-1-62-1). Monika Hojnisz-Staręga comes 5th, but she only did 3 races (2 of them sprints), which inflates her ski speed for this ranking. Nonetheless, she is much improved, winning the European Championship Individual recently.

Dorothea Wierer‘s ski speed improved after Christmas (still off her pace from the last two seasons); in contrast, Franziska Preuß is skiing faster than ever. Anaïs Chevalier-Bouchet‘s statistics stand out in particular: her hit rate is roughly 6% lower than in any of her previous five seasons, at the same time she currently skies roughly 1.5% faster than ever before. The two other multiple podium finishers, Dzinara Alimbekava and Elvira Öberg, have both been struggling in January (no top 6 result).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
1	Hauser	Lisa Theresa	AUT	6	4.2	46.8	-1.09	-1.26	-1.62	-1.20
2	Eckhoff	Tiril	NOR	6	6.2	45.2	-1.48	-0.51	-1.24	-1.17
3	Roeiseland	Marte Olsbu	NOR	6	10.0	35.0	-1.44	-0.51	-0.82	-1.10
4	Oeberg	Hanna	SWE	6	8.5	39.7	-0.93	-0.79	-2.00	-1.02
5	Hojnisz-Starega	Monika	POL	3	14.7	27.3	-1.14	-0.98	-0.47	-1.01
6	Wierer	Dorothea	ITA	6	11.2	34.2	-0.88	-0.89	-1.83	-1.00
7	Mironova	Svetlana	RUS	6	10.7	32.2	-1.05	-0.60	-1.48	-0.97
8	Preuss	Franziska	GER	6	12.8	32.2	-1.00	-0.70	-1.28	-0.95
9	Davidova	Marketa	CZE	6	14.2	27.8	-1.22	-0.51	-0.38	-0.91
10	Dzhima	Yuliia	UKR	5	12.0	32.0	-0.82	-1.10	-0.57	-0.87
11	Simon	Julia	FRA	6	23.7	31.5	-1.28	0.52	-1.93	-0.84
12	Braisaz-Bouchet	Justine	FRA	6	15.0	27.3	-1.16	-0.32	-0.47	-0.83
13	Pavlova	Evgeniya	RUS	5	19.4	23.2	-0.76	-0.51	-0.97	-0.71
14	Herrmann	Denise	GER	6	20.0	20.2	-1.36	0.52	-0.37	-0.70
15	Kaisheva	Uliana	RUS	6	18.3	22.5	-0.54	-0.79	-1.22	-0.69
16	Persson	Linn	SWE	6	18.8	22.2	-0.75	-0.89	0.16	-0.68
17	Haecki	Lena	SUI	4	32.0	9.0	-0.58	-0.51	-1.45	-0.66
18	Bescond	Anais	FRA	6	16.0	24.8	-0.83	-0.60	0.10	-0.65
19	Alimbekava	Dzinara	BLR	6	19.3	20.3	-0.88	-0.32	-0.26	-0.64
20	Hettich	Janina	GER	6	21.5	20.7	-0.52	-1.07	-0.11	-0.63
21	Gasparin	Selina	SUI	4	34.0	10.5	-1.10	-0.04	0.30	-0.63
22	Hinz	Vanessa	GER	5	23.0	18.0	-0.57	-0.86	-0.33	-0.63
23	Bendika	Baiba	LAT	4	36.0	8.5	-1.20	0.43	-0.34	-0.63
24	Chevalier-Bouchet	Anais	FRA	6	11.5	31.0	-0.88	-0.14	-0.45	-0.61
25	Kuklina	Larisa	RUS	5	22.4	18.6	-0.27	-0.98	-1.29	-0.60
26	Sola	Hanna	BLR	4	35.5	6.3	-1.24	0.89	-0.91	-0.58
27	Oeberg	Elvira	SWE	6	23.8	18.2	-0.61	-0.42	-0.83	-0.58
28	Kruchinkina	Elena	BLR	5	27.4	19.0	-1.21	0.31	0.80	-0.53
29	Lien	Ida	NOR	4	38.0	8.5	-0.99	0.11	0.45	-0.50
30	Cadurisch	Irene	SUI	4	41.3	4.8	-0.25	-0.51	-1.65	-0.49
31	Eder	Mari	FIN	3	42.0	2.8	-1.06	-0.04	1.27	-0.48
32	Lunder	Emma	CAN	5	33.0	11.5	-0.23	-0.63	-1.36	-0.48
33	Colombo	Caroline	FRA	4	31.8	10.0	-0.46	-0.51	-0.28	-0.45
34	Knotten	Karoline Offigstad	NOR	6	28.2	12.3	0.18	-1.45	-1.05	-0.44
35	Vittozzi	Lisa	ITA	5	32.4	17.0	-0.71	0.31	-0.84	-0.43
36	Zdouc	Dunja	AUT	6	22.7	17.3	-0.15	-0.98	-0.26	-0.41
37	Schwaiger	Julia	AUT	4	34.0	11.0	-0.60	-0.20	0.15	-0.39
38	Pidhrushna	Olena	UKR	4	42.5	6.8	-0.50	-0.51	0.53	-0.38
39	Tandrevold	Ingrid Landmark	NOR	5	35.0	11.0	-0.73	0.09	0.23	-0.38
40	Bankes	Megan	CAN	3	51.7	5.3	-0.17	-0.28	-1.56	-0.37
41	Avvakumova	Ekaterina	KOR	5	31.0	11.4	-0.28	-0.63	-0.05	-0.36
42	Zuk	Kamila	POL	3	41.3	0.7	-0.77	-0.04	1.08	-0.34
43	Innerhofer	Katharina	AUT	3	57.0	0.7	-1.13	0.89	0.66	-0.33
44	Talihaerm	Johanna	EST	4	45.5	3.5	-0.30	-0.98	1.25	-0.31
45	Gasparin	Elisa	SUI	4	42.3	4.0	-0.43	0.11	-0.43	-0.27
46	Kazakevich	Irina	RUS	4	57.5	1.0	-0.82	0.74	0.07	-0.26
47	Chevalier	Chloe	FRA	4	45.5	7.3	-0.75	0.27	0.93	-0.25
48	Jislova	Jessica	CZE	3	53.0	0.3	-0.27	-0.51	0.63	-0.23
49	Gasparin	Aita	SUI	4	42.8	5.8	-0.01	-0.36	-0.97	-0.23
50	Brorsson	Mona	SWE	5	38.0	15.0	0.18	-0.75	-0.77	-0.20

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Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

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