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Tag: World Championships

Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

Posted on 2021-02-06 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

With the World Championships around the corner, it’s worth looking at the best-performing athletes after Christmas again. I think it’s fair to assume that the majority of medal winners will come from in-form athletes going into the championship, although history tells us there are a handful of surprises usually. Below, I listed the best biathletes (ranked by Overall Performance Scores) for the January races โ€“ full results for the entire field here: men & women.


Note: Only athletes with at least 3 races in January are included. The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

World Cup leader Johannes Thingnes Bรธ tops the ranking unsurprisingly; he won 3 out of 6 races after Christmas and set the top ski time in 5 of them. However, his overall score is down from last season, because his non-team shooting percentage is 6.3% lower. Sturla Holm Lรฆgreid‘s hit rate also declined slightly in January, but it still stands at an incredible 92.9%, giving him 4 wins this season. Even though Lukas Hoferย failed to make a single podium so far, he has been very consistent; theย fourth-fastest skier overall and top 6 in all but one of the races in trimester 2.

Quentin Fillon Maillet‘s average race rank wouldn’t tell you (forgetting a penalty loop in Oberhof is to blame for that), but he has been best of the rest behind the Norwegians this season (4 podiums in total, including 2 in the last 2 races in Antholz). Tarjei Bรธ is currently at his best ski speed since 2010โ€“11 (third-fastest overall), but he is also the slowest shooter in the top 10. Arnd Peiffer‘s hit rate of 90.0% this winter is a tied career-best for him, Johannes Dale is the field’s second-fastest skier (both for the season and January-only).

The other two race winners, Alexander Loginov and Sebastian Samuelsson, come to Pokljuka with some question marks. Reigning sprint world champion Loginov only had one top 6 result all season, his win in Antholz, while Samuelsson’s ski form decline Dec. to Jan. is the worst of the men’s field. The other multiple podium finishers this winter are: ร‰milien Jacquelin, Martin Ponsiluoma and Fabien Claude (who also saw a big decline in January).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
64.746.8-1.98-0.35-0.70-1.36
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
65.745.3-1.30-1.17-1.23-1.25
3HoferLukasITA
66.338.8-1.45-0.65-0.84-1.15
4Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
521.433.4-1.36-0.55-1.55-1.15
5BoeTarjeiNOR
67.740.8-1.47-0.86-0.23-1.14
6PeifferArndGER
614.529.8-1.24-1.06-0.62-1.11
7DaleJohannesNOR
610.734.2-1.60-0.45-0.14-1.09
8PonsiluomaMartinSWE
611.230.3-1.42-0.04-1.34-1.01
9DollBenediktGER
615.825.5-1.29-0.35-1.13-1.00
10LoginovAlexanderRUS
515.429.6-0.99-1.06-0.66-0.97
11JacquelinEmilienFRA
615.225.8-1.23-0.35-1.00-0.95
12FakJakovSLO
615.527.7-0.82-1.06-1.23-0.94
13SamuelssonSebastianSWE
619.223.0-0.96-0.86-0.51-0.87
14LesserErikGER
620.022.8-0.82-0.76-1.34-0.87
15WegerBenjaminSUI
615.527.2-0.75-1.17-0.69-0.86
16DesthieuxSimonFRA
615.825.3-1.07-0.35-1.00-0.85
17ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
521.626.0-1.01-0.55-0.53-0.82
18BjoentegaardErlendNOR
414.327.3-0.80-1.06-0.28-0.82
19EderSimonAUT
619.024.0-0.45-1.37-1.29-0.82
20EliseevMatveyRUS
515.225.0-0.64-1.06-0.86-0.79
21YaliotnauRamanBLR
329.318.0-1.13-0.30-0.08-0.76
22PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
438.511.4-1.070.13-0.89-0.70
23WindischDominikITA
533.014.2-1.110.09-0.47-0.69
24HornPhilippGER
433.010.3-1.18-0.040.21-0.68
25SmolskiAntonBLR
432.58.8-0.76-0.55-0.53-0.67
26PrymaArtemUKR
432.810.0-0.68-0.55-0.84-0.66
27SeppalaTeroFIN
434.38.0-1.07-0.040.21-0.62
28LeitnerFelixAUT
625.716.5-0.82-0.550.28-0.61
29BocharnikovSergeyBLR
534.014.8-0.58-0.68-0.48-0.59
30ClaudeFabienFRA
630.518.3-0.920.26-0.82-0.56
31FinelloJeremySUI
535.09.4-1.060.34-0.20-0.55
32GuigonnatAntoninFRA
626.213.5-0.900.26-0.70-0.54
33GiacomelTommasoITA
443.52.5-0.700.30-1.60-0.52
34RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
533.28.4-0.900.21-0.26-0.50
35NelinJesperSWE
340.05.8-1.170.161.18-0.50
36DohertySeanUSA
439.84.0-0.36-0.72-0.60-0.50
37LatypovEduardRUS
624.516.7-0.970.260.04-0.49
38ReesRomanGER
328.313.7-0.55-0.650.31-0.47
39KomatzDavidAUT
622.817.0-0.11-1.370.03-0.46
40GowChristianCAN
445.39.8-0.22-0.55-1.30-0.44
41DudchenkoAntonUKR
326.317.3-0.01-1.27-0.38-0.42
42GowScottCAN
448.50.8-0.16-0.38-1.42-0.38
43BormoliniThomasITA
442.09.5-0.52-0.210.01-0.37
44DombrovskiKarolLTU
447.84.5-0.05-0.890.15-0.27
45NordgrenLeifUSA
446.30.50.14-1.06-0.07-0.23
46StreltsovKirillRUS
443.36.3-0.26-0.21-0.06-0.22
47StroliaVytautasLTU
442.08.8-0.410.13-0.01-0.21
48StvrteckyJakubCZE
458.81.5-0.860.641.07-0.20
49FemlingPeppeSWE
537.45.00.03-0.42-0.67-0.19
50ClaudeEmilienFRA
454.82.5-0.10-0.38-0.03-0.17


Women

Lisa Theresa Hauser won most World Cup points in January, something few would have predicted before Christmas. Being both accurate (93.0%) and fast (26.2s) makes her the most efficient shot on the women’s side at the moment. Combined with her new-found top10 ski speed, she is a threat in all events. Tiril Eckhoff followed her trajectory from last season almost exactly: four incredible World Cups in a row, followed by a considerable dip in form. Eckhoff has most wins (6) and podiums (8), but will her disappointing showing in Antholz last year be on her mind?

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Rรธiseland has made only one podium in trimester 2, however, she remains virtually tied with Eckhoff as the field’s top skier. Hanna ร–berg managed two wins and the second-most podiums this winter (7). Julia Simon, who alongside ร–berg is the fastest shooter, won two of the last 4 races, still, she is arguably the least consistent (last four positions: 59-1-62-1). Monika Hojnisz-Starฤ™ga comes 5th, but she only did 3 races (2 of them sprints), which inflates her ski speed for this ranking. Nonetheless, she is much improved, winning the European Championship Individual recently.

Dorothea Wierer‘s ski speed improved after Christmas (still off her pace from the last two seasons); in contrast, Franziska PreuรŸ is skiing faster than ever. Anaรฏs Chevalier-Bouchet‘s statistics stand out in particular: her hit rate is roughly 6% lower than in any of her previous five seasons, at the same time she currently skies roughly 1.5% faster than ever before. The two other multiple podium finishers, Dzinara Alimbekava and Elvira ร–berg, have both been struggling in January (no top 6 result).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1HauserLisa TheresaAUT
64.246.8-1.09-1.26-1.62-1.20
2EckhoffTirilNOR
66.245.2-1.48-0.51-1.24-1.17
3RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
610.035.0-1.44-0.51-0.82-1.10
4OebergHannaSWE
68.539.7-0.93-0.79-2.00-1.02
5Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
314.727.3-1.14-0.98-0.47-1.01
6WiererDorotheaITA
611.234.2-0.88-0.89-1.83-1.00
7MironovaSvetlanaRUS
610.732.2-1.05-0.60-1.48-0.97
8PreussFranziskaGER
612.832.2-1.00-0.70-1.28-0.95
9DavidovaMarketaCZE
614.227.8-1.22-0.51-0.38-0.91
10DzhimaYuliiaUKR
512.032.0-0.82-1.10-0.57-0.87
11SimonJuliaFRA
623.731.5-1.280.52-1.93-0.84
12Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
615.027.3-1.16-0.32-0.47-0.83
13PavlovaEvgeniyaRUS
519.423.2-0.76-0.51-0.97-0.71
14HerrmannDeniseGER
620.020.2-1.360.52-0.37-0.70
15KaishevaUlianaRUS
618.322.5-0.54-0.79-1.22-0.69
16PerssonLinnSWE
618.822.2-0.75-0.890.16-0.68
17HaeckiLenaSUI
432.09.0-0.58-0.51-1.45-0.66
18BescondAnaisFRA
616.024.8-0.83-0.600.10-0.65
19AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
619.320.3-0.88-0.32-0.26-0.64
20HettichJaninaGER
621.520.7-0.52-1.07-0.11-0.63
21GasparinSelinaSUI
434.010.5-1.10-0.040.30-0.63
22HinzVanessaGER
523.018.0-0.57-0.86-0.33-0.63
23BendikaBaibaLAT
436.08.5-1.200.43-0.34-0.63
24Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
611.531.0-0.88-0.14-0.45-0.61
25KuklinaLarisaRUS
522.418.6-0.27-0.98-1.29-0.60
26SolaHannaBLR
435.56.3-1.240.89-0.91-0.58
27OebergElviraSWE
623.818.2-0.61-0.42-0.83-0.58
28KruchinkinaElenaBLR
527.419.0-1.210.310.80-0.53
29LienIdaNOR
438.08.5-0.990.110.45-0.50
30CadurischIreneSUI
441.34.8-0.25-0.51-1.65-0.49
31EderMariFIN
342.02.8-1.06-0.041.27-0.48
32LunderEmmaCAN
533.011.5-0.23-0.63-1.36-0.48
33ColomboCarolineFRA
431.810.0-0.46-0.51-0.28-0.45
34KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
628.212.30.18-1.45-1.05-0.44
35VittozziLisaITA
532.417.0-0.710.31-0.84-0.43
36ZdoucDunjaAUT
622.717.3-0.15-0.98-0.26-0.41
37SchwaigerJuliaAUT
434.011.0-0.60-0.200.15-0.39
38PidhrushnaOlenaUKR
442.56.8-0.50-0.510.53-0.38
39TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
535.011.0-0.730.090.23-0.38
40BankesMeganCAN
351.75.3-0.17-0.28-1.56-0.37
41AvvakumovaEkaterinaKOR
531.011.4-0.28-0.63-0.05-0.36
42ZukKamilaPOL
341.30.7-0.77-0.041.08-0.34
43InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
357.00.7-1.130.890.66-0.33
44TalihaermJohannaEST
445.53.5-0.30-0.981.25-0.31
45GasparinElisaSUI
442.34.0-0.430.11-0.43-0.27
46KazakevichIrinaRUS
457.51.0-0.820.740.07-0.26
47ChevalierChloeFRA
445.57.3-0.750.270.93-0.25
48JislovaJessicaCZE
353.00.3-0.27-0.510.63-0.23
49GasparinAitaSUI
442.85.8-0.01-0.36-0.97-0.23
50BrorssonMonaSWE
538.015.00.18-0.75-0.77-0.20

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged World Championships

Predicting the World Championships in Pokljuka

Posted on 2021-02-06 | by biathlonanalytics | Leave a Comment on Predicting the World Championships in Pokljuka

One of the reasons I really love biathlon is that it is unpredictable. Yes, there are favourites who win more regularly than others, but there are always a large number of athletes who can take the win. Yet my next Tableau Dashboard is called Pokljuka Predictions. Well, I ran out of space to add “well, not really”. But to make predictions to the best of one’s ability, having all the right information in front of you is the best option you have. And that is what this dashboard is supposed to do: provide useful information that allows making the best possible prediction.

The dashboard works per Race Category (gender) and Race Discpline. After selecting these two parameters we can have a look at the charts but first, let’s look at some info on the events.

They are held in Slovenia, at the Pokljuka Biathlon Stadium

The program is a busy one for the athletes, but this report excludes the relays.

After setting the filters, three of the four “columns” show data, where the central column at the bottom shows data when an athlete is selected.

The scatterplot shows the athletes related to their last race in Pokljuka in this Discipline and their current standing in the World Cup for this discipline. X’s mean that the athlete either did not participate in the most recent Pokljuka event, or is not in the current season Discipline Standings. It gives an idea of what athletes are good this season and did well in the last race in Pokljuka for this discipline. They will show up in the top right.

The following two charts show similar data from above but individually: the race results for this discipline in previous seasons (when available), and the current World Cup standings for this discipline with points and ranking in brackets.

When selecting an athlete in any of these charts, we can see the current season results in the selected discipline for the selected athlete, compared to their career (since the 16-17 season) average (dark blue dashed line) and the current season’s average (light blue dotted line).

This is followed by the athlete’s current form based on consistency;it shows the absolute change in rankings per season, so the higher the value (lower on the chart), the larger the inconsistency. And the steepness of the decline shows the athlete’s form. Steep points to a big change in results, where a almost flat decline indicates that recent results were similar. It does not indicate however if these results were high or low in the ranking. If an athletes was 45th, 43rd and 44th the line will be almost flat indicating strong consistency. this will gie you an idea of likelyhood that it will change soon, or if this athlete’s performance is pretty reliable.

Last thing to mention is that when you hover your mouse over a name of an athlete, it highlights that athlete in other charts.

So all in all not a true predictor, but a tool providing information to make a better-informed prediction quicker.

UPDATE – Predictions after all, and some updates to the dashboard

So, based on the information on the dashboard I really felt I should make some predictions after all. Although I will not commit to pointing who will get what place, I will highlight the top favourites for every race, based on the dashboard.

I also changed one chart on the dashboard replacing the one that showed the current standing to the cumulative points this season to give a better idea of when the points were scored; recently or early in the season:

Men’s Sprint – It’s hard not to bet on JTB here; He won in Pokljuka in the 18-19 season, he won the last two sprints, has a lowest ranking of 4th this season and leads the Spring Standings. His brother Tarjei, was 4th two seasons ago, had a win and second place this season but a lowest ranking of 15th, so definitely more inconsistent. He’s 4th in the current standings. Outside favourites are Lukas Hofer, recently in good shape and improving, and despite his miserable rankings this season so far I would not write off Loginov: he was 3rd in 18-19 at this venue, and won last year’s World Championships in Antholz, showing he knows how to peak for a major championship. Dale and Laegreid are 2nd and 3rd in the current season standings but with only one and zero respectively World Championships and Pokljuka races under their belt (with a 23rd place for Dale in Antholz) I can’t see them ending up with a gold medal.

Women’s Sprint – Eckhoff won the last three Sprints of this season, but did not participate in the most recent Sprint in Pokljuka. She also leads the standings this season. Wierer was 2nd in 18-19 in Pokljuka, and is 10th in the current standings. She has been inconsistent this season but her last race was a 2nd place. I would consider Preuss an outsider, being 9th in Pokljuka in 18-19 and a current 4th spot in the standings. Braisaz-Bouchet is another outsider to keep an eye on, being 3rd in 18-19 and scoring a 14th, 9th and 4th position in the last three races. Hauser was 50th in 18-19, but was 3rd in the last two races this season, and has since won a 1st place so she is in very good shape.

The Men’s Pursuit is harder to predict with the obvious dependency on the Sprint results. Laegreid, JTB, and Dale lead the standings, and JTB also won in 18-19 in Pokljuka. Tarjei Boe has been improving since the start of this season (12-7-7-3) and was 6th in 18-19. QFM was 2nd in 18-19, has won a race this season, but has been very inconsistent. Loginov is an outsider again, 3rd in 18-19 but the highest position of 17th this season, as is Hofer with an 8th position in 18-19 and a 5th spot in the last race.

Women’s Pursuit – Wierer and Roeiseland, 6th and 2nd in the current standings and 2nd and 5th in 18-19 have a good chance for a top 5, but based on the current season results Eckhoff again has the best cards, especially if she does well in the Sprint. Hauser and Preuss are strong outsiders again with solid scores in 18-19 and decent results this season.

Women’s Individual – Dzhima, 2nd in the standings and winning in Pokljuka in 18-19 and a 14th in 19-20 and a 2nd spot in the last race this season has the best cards for this race. Hanna Oeberg has a strong history in Pokljuka (8th in 18-19, 2nd in 19-20) but this season has not been great for her. Hauser was 9th and 7th in Pokljuka and won the most recent race this season for her first World Cup win. Herrmann and Vitozzi are strong outsiders with solid results in 19-20 (1st and 4th) and Vitozzi in 18-19 as well (6th). Vitozzi’s season has had a tough current season with a highest position of 13th, and Herrmand aslo had a rough season so far.

Men’s Individual – Since JTB won last year in Pokljuka and a 7th spot in the year prior and 4th spot on the standings, it’s hard not see him as a favourite again. Fillon Maillet was 7th last year and has a 4th and 3rd this season so he’s a contender for sure. Loginov won the most recent race but with a 16th and 29th rank in the last two races in Pokljuka, he’s an outsider. Hofer and Laegreid are outsiders as well with a 1st and 2nd for Laegreid this season, and a 4th in the most recent race for Hofer, plus a 13th position last year.

Women’s Mass Start – Simon is hard to ignore for a favourite, winning the last two races this season and being 11th in last year’s race in Pokljuka. However, Hanna Oeberg won there last year and was 3rd and 2nd this season, so I would consider her to be the favorite, even over Simon. Outsider Roeiseland won the other Mass Start this season, and had two 7th places, as well as a 6th last year. Hauser was 3rd in the last race this season and 7th last year in Pokljuka so she is a strong outsider too.

Men’s Mass Start – This will be a tight one, and both Boe brothers and Fillon Maillet all being strong contenders, with Tarjei leading the standings and being 9th last year, JT winning the most recent race, being 2nd in the standings as well as last year, and QFM winning last year, 2nd in the most recent race and 4th in the standings. Eder is a strong outsider (8th last year and most recently, and 5th in the standings), as are Doll (2nd last year, a 4th and 7th this year), Peiffer (13th last year, a 1st, 11th and 5th this season) and Hofer (10th last year, and a 4th this season).

That’s it, those are the big players in these championships, but since we’re talking biatlon here, the chances of being wrong with predictions are pretty high.

Posted in Long-term trends, Statistical analysis | Tagged Pokljuka, World Championships

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