In the past, I often compared changes in ski speed to the entire previous season, which might be slightly deceiving, especially at the beginning of a season. Some athletes start particularly strong before Christmas, others might do better late in a season, when parts of the field are already tired. Potentially, it’s a better idea to only compare the same World Cup period. Here I did this specifically for World Cup trimester 1 (roughly December 2019 vs. December 2020).
I used the percentage back from the top 30 median for this. Comparisons against the entire field are problematic this year, because of temporary rule changes (each National Federation can register two athletes who have not fulfilled the qualification criteria). That makes the whole field slightly slower.
If you can’t find a specific athlete, you can always look up the complete World Cup field (also available per trimester) for the ongoing season (as well as all previous seasons) here:
Note: Only athletes with at least 5 non-team races in trimester 1 of both the previous and the current season are included in the tables below. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per season).
Men
Martin Ponsiluoma and Sebastian Samuelsson are the most improved overall. Both lowered their average ski rank by at least 24 positions, plus they are skiing 3.5% and 3.0% faster respectively (compared to their speed last December). Veteran Jakov Fak (his 15th World Cup season) is currently on his best ski form in 5 years. World Cup leader, Johannes Thingnes Bø, is very close to his level from last December (he is slightly ahead).
Quentin Fillon Maillet started the season as one of the favorites, but he is not at his peak form yet; his hit rate is at a career high right now, but his speed has declined a lot compared to December 2019 (average ski rank almost doubled). For this pre-Christmas period, Germany and France have only one athlete each who improved season-to-season: Erik Lesser (only started in 4 races in December 2019) and Fabien Claude, respectively.
Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season | World Cup Trimester 1
Women
Among regular starters, Dzinara Alimbekava is by far the most improved, 5.0% faster than last season (plus her average ski rank is now an incredible 44.8 positions lower!). Lisa Theresa Hauser and Franziska Preuß stood out more for their (fast) shooting in the past, but they are both among the top 15 skiers at the moment. Hauser’s transformation is particularly remarkable (over 2% faster than any of her previous 7 seasons), Preuß was close to this level before (five years ago).
World Cup leader and overall fastest skier, Marte Olsbu Røiseland, is missing in the table below, because she only appeared in 4 races in December 2019. She is actually slower compared to her speed at the start of the 2019–20 season (+0.5%). Last year’s top skier, Denise Herrmann, is struggling to get going; her average ski rank in trimester 1 last season was 4.5, now it’s 8.3. Dorothea Wierer was the 9th fastest skier last season, now she’s ranked 23rd.
Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season | World Cup Trimester 1
One thing that stands out is how well Norway and Sweden are doing (both men and women). Every athlete of those two nations either improved (often significantly), or at least managed to maintain their previous level; not a single athlete got notably worse.