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Is Oberhof the most challenging venue on the World Cup tour?

Posted on 2020-12-28 | by real biathlon

During the Christmas break, I worked on compiling a new data set: Statistics for each World Cup location. The full stats are available as bonus content (if you are interested in that you might have a look at the real biathlon Patreon page). Here’s a summary and some examples.

The upcoming World Cup stop, Oberhof, is probably not the most popular location among athletes, due to its notoriously bad weather, but the Oberhof shooting range (in parts because of the weather) has always been one of the most interesting. Here’s the data to back that up. Not only is Oberhof the venue with the lowest average hit rate (75.1%), it also has the highest average shooting time (36.8s) of regular World Cup venues (not including Brezno-Osrblie, which held its last race in 2006, when shooting times where generally slower than they are now).

All-time shooting results for regular Biathlon World Cup venues

VenueNationFirst
Year
Last
Year
RacesTotal
hit rate
(in %)
Prone
hit rate
(in %)
Standing
hit rate
(in %)
Shooting
Time
(in sec)
Prone
Time
(in sec)
Standing
Time
(in sec)
Antholz-AnterselvaITA
1975202023877.681.274.132.933.531.9
RuhpoldingGER
1978202023580.683.977.432.933.632.3
HochfilzenAUT
1978202118978.381.675.135.436.134.7
Oslo HolmenkollenNOR
1983201917280.082.577.630.531.829.2
OestersundSWE
1970202016878.481.875.135.337.533.1
OberhofGER
1984202016175.178.971.436.836.736.4
PokljukaSLO
1993202015079.682.976.333.733.434.1
KontiolahtiFIN
199020219578.581.775.433.534.232.4
Khanty-MansiyskRUS
200020167979.282.376.132.933.532.2
Brezno-OsrblieSVK
199620066079.582.976.138.435.341.4
LahtiFIN
198020075578.780.876.531.633.130.0
Nove MestoCZE
201220204179.282.875.731.632.630.6
PyeongChangKOR
200820183377.881.374.334.835.434.2
CanmoreCAN
198720192776.879.574.134.535.533.5
Soldier Hollow, UtahUSA
200120192080.583.977.233.834.333.3
Annecy-Le Grand BornandFRA
201420201883.285.880.728.930.127.7
SochiRUS
201320141783.686.081.130.731.529.9
Cesana San SicarioITA
200520061678.180.975.434.135.332.9
WhistlerCAN
200920101682.184.979.433.434.032.8
Fort Kent, MEUSA
200420111281.184.278.029.230.627.8
Presque Isle, MEUSA
201120161176.980.673.233.934.832.9
TrondheimNOR
20092009683.385.680.929.030.427.7
TyumenRUS
20182018683.785.581.928.629.827.4

Although I didn’t include the data here, it’s worth pointing out that Oberhof isn’t just challenging at the range, it also has one of the most difficult and selective tracks: on average, 13.1 of the top 30 athletes ski outside a +/- 30 sec range of the median – also the highest for any venue with more than 30 World Cup races.

The other German location, Ruhpolding, is almost the polar opposite; arguably the easiest regular World Cup range (average shooting percentage of 80.6%). Le Grand Bornand has an even higher hit rate (83.2%), but has also staged over 200 races less; it’s likely that percentage will regress to the mean at least somewhat if more events are held there. Antholz is noteworthy as well, having a relatively fast average shooting time, but a poor average hit rate; apparently the nice weather there combined with the altitude is deceptive.

Overall hit rate (including relays) | Oberhof vs. Hochfilzen

In the chart above you can see a comparison for overall hit rates (per race, 10 race moving average) for the last and the upcoming World Cup stops. Hochfilzen (on average) had roughly 5% better shooting results in the last 15 years.

Ski Speed (in km/h) in Oberhof | Men’s Non-Team races

Here’s the winner’s ski speed (in km/h) for men’s non-team events in Oberhof. Clearly, there are huge differences between seasons (a good example why the physical speed isn’t a great data point for long-term ski speed comparisons).

Total Shooting Time comparison | Hochfilzen vs. Oberhof

Lastly, I added a chart of the average total shooting times (per race, 10 race moving average). Hochfilzen and Oberhof are actually closer in that category, however, the shooting times in Hochfilzen got faster over the last decade, while there is no such trend in Oberhof.

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real biathlon

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Posted in Long-term trends, Statistical analysis | Tagged shooting

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