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Ski Speed comparison season-to-season

Posted on 2020-12-02 | by real biathlon | 5 Comments on Ski Speed comparison season-to-season

It’s probably no use to look at shooting percentages after only 30 shots at the beginning of a season, however, the ski speed at the first World Cup weekend might already tell us at least a little bit where the season is going and how the ski form for some of the top athletes might have changed over the summer.

If you can’t find a specific athlete, you can always look up complete World Cup statistics for the ongoing season here:

  • Ski speed: Men | Women
  • Shooting percentage: Men | Women
  • Shooting Times: Men | Women

Note: Only athletes with at least 15 races last season and 2 races this season are included in the two tables below. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per season).


Men

Sergey Bocharnikov was the most improved overall; he skied 4.7% faster and lowered his average ski rank by 38.7. Maybe even more impressive though, Sebastian Samuelsson and Martin Ponsiluoma both improved by 3.7%, and did so on a much higher level. Surprise winner Sturla Holm Lægreid does not show up here, because he only appeared in 4 races last season, however, he did improve his speed by 1.7%

Johannes Thingnes Bø continued where he left off: he was not simply the fastest overall (over 1% ahead of the 2nd fastest, his brother Tarjei Bø), he also set the top Course Time in both races. One of the pre-season favorites, Quentin Fillon Maillet, shot great (96.7%), but did not have the best weekend skiing-wise (his average ski rank increased from 5.6 to 15.0). Dmytro Pidruchnyi struggled the most, he was 3.3% slower than last season.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1BocharnikovSergeyBLR
210.5-38.7-0.99-4.67
2SamuelssonSebastianSWE
23.5-25.2-2.23-3.69
3PonsiluomaMartinSWE
24.5-22.6-2.16-3.67
4NelinJesperSWE
28.5-16.1-0.95-1.89
5FakJakovSLO
217.5-12.5+0.10-1.58
6MoravecOndrejCZE
231.5-8.2+1.45-1.37
7ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
29.5-7.6-1.26-1.26
8BoeTarjeiNOR
23.0-5.0-2.48-1.15
9BauerKlemenSLO
236.0-10.2+2.17-1.10
10JacquelinEmilienFRA
26.5-5.2-1.41-0.92
11BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
21.0-2.0-3.61-0.71
12ClaudeFlorentBEL
237.0-3.2+2.37-0.58
13ClaudeFabienFRA
212.5-2.5-0.44-0.48
14RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
218.0+0.4+0.16-0.31
15LoginovAlexanderRUS
213.5-4.0-0.21-0.28
16HoferLukasITA
217.5+1.8-0.09-0.20
17DaleJohannesNOR
210.0+0.2-1.28-0.09
18PeifferArndGER
216.5+0.9-0.13-0.08
19IlievVladimirBUL
224.0+2.0+0.72+0.02
20KrcmarMichalCZE
232.0+4.8+1.51+0.02
21SeppalaTeroFIN
232.5+4.7+1.62+0.29
22EliseevMatveyRUS
235.5+7.9+2.39+0.31
23WegerBenjaminSUI
234.0+5.3+2.00+0.43
24LeitnerFelixAUT
230.0+6.5+1.36+0.47
25GuigonnatAntoninFRA
232.5+10.5+1.66+0.52
26BjoentegaardErlendNOR
216.5+6.4+0.08+0.97
27DesthieuxSimonFRA
221.0+8.7+0.40+1.04
28EderSimonAUT
245.0+9.5+3.60+1.35
29PrymaArtemUKR
243.0+14.6+3.13+1.48
30Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
215.0+9.4-0.30+1.76
31DollBenediktGER
225.0+15.1+0.92+1.92
32EberhardJulianAUT
229.5+18.4+1.38+2.09
33KuehnJohannesGER
223.5+16.8+0.79+2.14
34FemlingPeppeSWE
265.5+17.9+5.54+2.31
35PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
257.0+33.1+4.59+3.33

Women

Among regular starters, Elvira Öberg was by far the most improved, 3.7% faster than last season. Her sister Hanna Öberg also improved a lot; the Kontiolahti sprint was her first ever race setting the top ski time. Lisa Theresa Hauser and Franziska Preuß also got considerably faster, but their improvement might not have been as obvious, because both hit only 25 out of 30 targets (83.3%), some 3-5% below their shooting percentage from last winter.

Lena Häcki, Julia Simon and Monika Hojnisz-Staręga all struggled to get going, skiing at least 3% slower. Hojnisz-Staręga had a particularly bad season opening, her average ski rank was 46.5 higher than last season, 5.0% behind her ski speed from last winter. Alongside the Öberg sisters, Tiril Eckhoff was fastest overall (but only managed a 66.7% hit rate). Last year’s top skier, Denise Herrmann, was not at her peak speed yet (+1.2%), however, her career-high 86.7% hit rate looks promising.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1OebergElviraSWE
23.5-22.0-2.07-3.68
2HauserLisa TheresaAUT
216.0-18.7+0.16-1.93
3OebergHannaSWE
23.5-10.6-2.02-1.63
4PreussFranziskaGER
212.0-10.2-0.26-0.92
5TalihaermJohannaEST
250.0-4.3+3.85-0.64
6TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
26.0-6.7-1.18-0.63
7BrorssonMonaSWE
222.5-5.3+0.65-0.62
8GasparinAitaSUI
247.0+3.8+3.34-0.11
9KryukoIrynaBLR
227.5-1.0+1.58-0.09
10LunderEmmaCAN
240.5+2.0+2.70-0.09
11CharvatovaLucieCZE
226.0+1.1+1.43-0.05
12DavidovaMarketaCZE
210.5-0.3-0.55+0.28
13Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
26.5+0.7-1.71+0.30
14BescondAnaisFRA
217.5+0.1+0.40+0.33
15EckhoffTirilNOR
24.0-1.5-2.15+0.35
16GasparinElisaSUI
261.5+11.3+4.42+0.64
17PerssonLinnSWE
226.5+3.9+1.50+0.69
18EderMariFIN
216.5+3.0+0.07+0.71
19RiederChristinaAUT
272.5+14.2+6.25+0.92
20SanfilippoFedericaITA
247.0+8.4+3.54+1.07
21InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
225.0+6.6+1.37+1.12
22PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
255.5+18.4+4.10+1.12
23HerrmannDeniseGER
26.5+3.9-1.85+1.18
24ZbylutKingaPOL
271.0+18.1+5.81+1.63
25OjaReginaEST
279.5+20.2+7.41+1.90
26ZukKamilaPOL
238.0+17.5+2.42+2.05
27WiererDorotheaITA
225.0+15.0+1.33+2.32
28HinzVanessaGER
250.5+27.4+3.62+2.58
29VittozziLisaITA
243.5+23.5+3.27+2.74
30KuklinaLarisaRUS
258.0+22.7+5.03+2.77
31SemerenkoVitaUKR
273.5+28.5+6.25+2.89
32HaeckiLenaSUI
245.5+28.6+3.35+3.17
33SimonJuliaFRA
247.5+33.0+3.28+3.38
34Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
263.5+46.5+4.87+5.01
Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, ski speed, skiing

Rule changes for the 2020–21 season

Posted on 2020-11-25 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Rule changes for the 2020–21 season

The International Biathlon Union (IBU) announced several rule changes for the upcoming 2020–21 season – for the most part temporary changes to due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here is a quick summary.

The one permanent change this winter is the introduction of the dark Blue Bib, which will be worn by the top competitor who has not turned 25 by December 31. The IBU Under 25 Award will be handed out at the end of the season, replacing the IBU Rookie of the Year award. Plans to introduce the experimental Super Sprint event on World Cup level were put on hold.

For the 2020–21 season only, the number of scratch results has been raised up to four for the World Cup Total Score. Scratch results are also introduced to the Nations Cup and Discipline scores as well as the IBU Cup Total Score. In case the total number of competitions are reduced, the number of scratched results will be deducted accordingly:

It’s quite the reversal for the IBU, because the sport had moved away from dropping results in the last two decades. The last time more than two results were dropped for the Overall World Cup Score was 2009–10, the last time four races were eliminated was the 1999–00 season. In Discipline World Cups, there hadn’t been any kind of scratch results since 2009–10 and no multiple scratched races since 1998–99. The Nations Cup had four dropped results until 2009–10, after that none.

Changing the number of dropped results from two to four might seem minor, but it could have a big impact on the outcome of the season. Last year, Tiril Eckhoff would have won the overall title if only 17 of the 21 races counted towards the final score (773 to 753 points); in reality, of course Dorothea Wierer won (793 to 786 points) because just the two lowest scores were eliminated.

The IBU obviously expects athletes to miss or intentionally skip more races this year, which seems reasonable. However, three dropped results for the sprint discipline for example is a lot (30% of an athlete’s results will not count), not to mention it’s quite disproportionate between the disciplines.

Number of races per score, if there are no cancelled events:

On a more technical level, the World Cup Qualification Criteria was adjusted as well, accounting for the late start of the IBU Cup season, which would be the normal route to the World Cup. Accordingly, for the first trimester only, each National Federation can register two athletes who have not fulfilled the qualification criteria. The start quotas for the World Cup remain the same.

You can find the full document about temporary changes here: Special Event and Competition Rules – COVID-19.

Posted in Biathlon News | Tagged 2020–21 season

Projection for the season opener

Posted on 2020-11-21 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Projection for the season opener

The many statistics collected on this site allow to calculate a theoretical race time, solely based on performance data. I thought this might be an interesting exercise for the season opening 15/20km individuals – plus it’s a simple reminder where we left off. These aren’t meant to be serious predictions, of course. The individual is arguably the most unpredictable discipline and produces the most surprises anyway. Not to mention a lot usually changes during the off-season, maybe even more so this year.

Note: Projected times are calculated based on ski speed, hit rates and range times in last season’s three individuals (IN). Hit rates are rounded to the nearest full shot. The top 30 median Course Time at the 2015 Kontiolahti IN is used as reference (last IN held in Kontiolahti) and multiplied with last season’s IN ski speed in percent. The “Time Loss Shooting” column follows the idea of the Shooting Efficiency score.

Men 20 km Individual

Johannes Thingnes Bø comes out on top, “winning” by a margin of over one minute, which probably isn’t surprising, especially since Martin Fourcade is no longer there. However, he’s projected to win mostly due to his extremely high 93.3% hit rate (rounded to 19/20 hits for this), not because of his ski speed, which wasn’t that remarkable in this event last winter. Quentin Fillon Maillet and Tarjei Bø are second and third – both skied faster, but were less accurate at the shooting range in 2019–20 individuals.

Race Projection based on 2019–20 IN statistics

RankFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Projected
Course Time
Total
hit rate
(in %)
Projected
Time Loss
Shooting
Projected
Total
Race Time
Behind
RankFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Projected
Course Time
Total
hit rate
(in %)
Projected
Time Loss
Shooting
Projected
Total
Race Time
Behind
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
3-1.7143:23.895.004:30.447:54.2
2Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
3-3.8042:28.585.006:27.948:56.3+1:02.1
3BoeTarjeiNOR
3-1.7943:21.690.005:42.449:04.0+1:09.8
4ClaudeFabienFRA
3-0.8843:45.690.005:31.949:17.5+1:23.3
5JacquelinEmilienFRA
2-0.1544:05.190.005:27.349:32.4+1:38.3
6DollBenediktGER
3-1.5943:26.885.006:24.249:51.0+1:56.8
7EliseevMatveyRUS
2+1.0544:36.890.005:20.449:57.3+2:03.1
8WegerBenjaminSUI
3+0.1044:11.690.005:46.349:57.9+2:03.7
9NawrathPhilippGER
2+0.7944:29.990.005:37.450:07.3+2:13.1
10PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
2+1.2844:42.990.005:24.550:07.4+2:13.2
11LoginovAlexanderRUS
3-0.7943:48.285.006:19.850:08.0+2:13.8
12HoferLukasITA
3-1.6843:24.685.006:43.850:08.4+2:14.2
13DesthieuxSimonFRA
3-0.7743:48.585.006:25.950:14.4+2:20.2
14FakJakovSLO
3+1.8644:58.490.005:25.050:23.4+2:29.2
15DaleJohannesNOR
3-1.0043:42.685.006:47.150:29.7+2:35.6
16EderSimonAUT
3+2.3045:09.890.005:23.850:33.6+2:39.4
17MoravecOndrejCZE
3+2.2945:09.790.005:27.750:37.4+2:43.2
18HornPhilippGER
3+0.1344:12.485.006:30.550:42.9+2:48.7
19BjoentegaardErlendNOR
2+0.0144:09.385.006:38.250:47.5+2:53.3
20SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2+2.4845:14.690.005:38.550:53.2+2:59.0
21GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
3+1.2444:42.085.006:29.451:11.3+3:17.1
22PrymaArtemUKR
3+1.2344:41.585.006:37.751:19.2+3:25.0
23KuehnJohannesGER
3-0.9943:42.880.007:43.051:25.8+3:31.6
24NordgrenLeifUSA
3+4.0545:56.390.005:36.051:32.3+3:38.1
25RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
3-0.5943:53.380.007:47.251:40.5+3:46.3
26ClaudeFlorentBEL
3+3.5145:42.090.006:04.851:46.8+3:52.6
27EberhardJulianAUT
3+0.9344:33.680.007:16.751:50.3+3:56.1
28LesserErikGER
2+5.1846:26.290.005:24.551:50.8+3:56.6
29LatypovEduardRUS
3+2.5645:16.785.006:37.851:54.5+4:00.3
30DombrovskiKarolLTU
3+6.5447:02.295.004:56.451:58.7+4:04.5

Women 15 km Individual

Olympic champion Hanna Öberg failed to win an individual last season, however, she still won the discipline World Cup title; her as the projected winner is no surprise either. Marte Olsbu Røiseland and Monika Hojnisz-Staręga round out this theoretical podium. What’s maybe most noteworthy is the fact that eight athletes are inside a minute of the winning time (none for the men) – rather emblematic of the gender divide when it comes to competitiveness at the very top of the field in the last couple of seasons.

Race Projection based on 2019–20 IN statistics

RankFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Projected
Course Time
Total
hit rate
(in %)
Projected
Time Loss
Shooting
Projected
Total
Race Time
Behind
RankFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Projected
Course Time
Total
hit rate
(in %)
Projected
Time Loss
Shooting
Projected
Total
Race Time
Behind
1OebergHannaSWE
3-0.9538:43.790.005:20.844:04.5
2RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
3-2.6438:04.285.006:31.644:35.8+31.3
3Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
3-0.8638:45.890.005:52.344:38.1+33.6
4HerrmannDeniseGER
3-2.9737:56.385.006:42.544:38.8+34.3
5WiererDorotheaITA
3-1.6038:28.485.006:22.044:50.4+45.9
6KuklinaLarisaRUS
3+1.4739:40.490.005:17.344:57.7+53.2
7PreussFranziskaGER
3+1.3039:36.590.005:21.544:57.9+53.4
8BraisazJustineFRA
3-2.8237:59.985.007:00.044:59.9+55.4
9HinzVanessaGER
3+0.9339:27.990.005:38.445:06.3+1:01.7
10DzhimaYuliiaUKR
3+1.4039:38.790.005:41.045:19.7+1:15.2
11StarykhIrinaRUS
2+1.9439:51.690.005:41.945:33.5+1:29.0
12DavidovaMarketaCZE
3-1.3438:34.585.007:07.245:41.8+1:37.3
13BrorssonMonaSWE
2+2.4340:03.190.005:40.145:43.3+1:38.8
14LunderEmmaCAN
2+3.4540:26.990.005:20.445:47.3+1:42.8
15TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
3-0.1839:01.885.006:54.145:55.9+1:51.4
16VittozziLisaITA
3+0.7839:24.385.006:39.346:03.6+1:59.1
17EckhoffTirilNOR
3-2.0138:18.880.007:52.746:11.5+2:07.0
18SimonJuliaFRA
3-0.4438:55.880.007:17.346:13.1+2:08.6
19Yurlova-PerchtEkaterinaRUS
3+1.4239:39.385.006:35.046:14.3+2:09.8
20Kristejn PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
3+3.9340:38.390.005:45.546:23.7+2:19.2
21TodorovaMilenaBUL
2+4.2640:45.890.005:58.546:44.3+2:39.8
22EganClareUSA
3+1.9439:51.485.006:56.946:48.3+2:43.8
23HauserLisa TheresaAUT
3+3.1240:19.385.006:31.146:50.4+2:45.8
24BescondAnaisFRA
3+0.0239:06.680.007:44.346:50.9+2:46.4
25GasparinAitaSUI
3+3.0840:18.385.006:33.546:51.8+2:47.3
26FialkovaPaulinaSVK
2+0.0139:06.280.007:46.446:52.6+2:48.1
27MerkushynaAnastasiyaUKR
3+4.1540:43.485.006:18.547:02.0+2:57.5
28RiederChristinaAUT
3+5.9141:24.790.005:52.047:16.8+3:12.3
29SchwaigerJuliaAUT
3+4.0940:41.885.006:37.947:19.7+3:15.2
30ZdoucDunjaAUT
2+6.9741:49.490.005:33.047:22.5+3:17.9
Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, projection, results

Improvements season-to-season

Posted on 2020-11-18 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Improvements season-to-season

The new website allows you to look up basic biathlon data on your own (for different disciplines, periods, categories, etc.), so I won’t be posting too many of the regular statistical updates that I have done in the past. If you are interested in a specific statistic or ranking, you can always check out:

  • 2019–20 Shooting hit rates: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Ski speed: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Shooting Times: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Range Times: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Shooting efficiency: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Overall Performance Score: Men | Women

These will be updated after each race. I thought it would still be interesting though to take one high-level look at last season’s performances. Below I listed the season-to-season changes in the Overall Performance Score of regular World Cup athletes (at least 14 races in the last two seasons).

Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate values better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.

Men

Émilien Jacquelin was the most improved athlete last season, getting better in all major aspects of the sport: 5.5% higher hit rate, 1.8% faster skiing and 1.8s lower range time. Vytautas Strolia improved by the same amount, albeit on a much lower level, earning his first career top 20. They are followed by Johannes Kühn, who almost halved his average ski rank (12.3 to 6.7), and Erlend Bjøntegaard, who managed to increase his hit rate by 7.4%. On the flip side, Lukas Hofer‘s and Benjamin Weger‘s performance scores declined the most; both skiing over 1% slower; Hofer also hit 4.5% less of his targets.

Martin Fourcade ended his record-breaking career with his highest ever hit rate (91.8%), while his ski speed was almost back to his previous best (after a big decline in 2018–19): he had an average Course Time rank of 6.0 last winter – in 5 of his 7 title winning seasons his average ski rank was in the 4.5-5.0 range. The improvement of the French men really stand out (three in the top 10 below). Quentin Fillon Maillet became the second-fastest skier overall (1.5% faster). Johannes Thingnes Bø‘s ski speed declined slightly (on the highest possible level), yet he managed to set the best shooting percentage (92.1%) for a World Cup winner ever.

2019–20 z-Scores compared to 2018–19 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1JacquelinEmilienFRA
20-1.27-0.83-1.36-1.15-0.44
2StroliaVytautas LTU
14-0.68-0.050.30-0.38-0.44
3KuehnJohannesGER
21-1.510.02-0.17-0.90-0.28
4BjoentegaardErlendNOR
18-1.38-0.77-0.40-1.08-0.28
5SeppalaTeroFIN
17-0.980.15-0.55-0.60-0.26
6FourcadeMartinFRA
21-1.63-1.26-0.71-1.41-0.21
7PrymaArtemUKR
20-0.79-0.53-0.72-0.71-0.20
8Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
21-1.68-0.84-1.05-1.36-0.15
9IlievVladimirBUL
16-1.140.45-0.44-0.60-0.12
10EliseevMatveyRUS
20-0.63-0.68-0.85-0.67-0.11
11BoeTarjeiNOR
21-1.50-0.93-0.51-1.21-0.09
12BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
17-1.89-1.30-1.01-1.62-0.08
13GuzikGrzegorzPOL
14-0.18-0.19-0.81-0.26-0.08
14KrcmarMichalCZE
20-0.84-0.44-0.59-0.69-0.08
15BormoliniThomasITA
15-0.59-0.62-0.47-0.59-0.06
16YaliotnauRamanBLR
14-0.920.240.18-0.46-0.05
17PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
19-0.83-0.50-1.35-0.80-0.05
18DollBenediktGER
21-1.42-0.26-1.04-1.04-0.03
19ClaudeFlorentBEL
17-0.58-0.730.78-0.46-0.02
20FakJakovSLO
20-0.77-1.00-1.04-0.87-0.02
21SamuelssonSebastianSWE
16-0.94-0.22-0.44-0.67-0.01
22ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
21-1.18-0.70-0.69-0.98+0.03
23NelinJesperSWE
17-1.050.00-0.28-0.66+0.03
24LoginovAlexanderRUS
19-1.22-1.03-1.15-1.15+0.03
25LeitnerFelixAUT
19-1.00-0.370.16-0.68+0.04
26BauerKlemenSLO
15-0.59-0.10-1.46-0.55+0.04
27MoravecOndrejCZE
17-0.54-1.06-0.71-0.71+0.05
28DesthieuxSimonFRA
21-1.33-0.76-0.81-1.10+0.08
29EberhardJulianAUT
18-1.350.24-1.11-0.86+0.13
30GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
16-0.80-0.86-0.64-0.80+0.16
31GuigonnatAntoninFRA
15-0.96-0.52-0.72-0.80+0.17
32RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
17-1.160.11-0.26-0.68+0.18
33PeifferArndGER
20-1.15-0.97-0.79-1.06+0.18
34WindischDominikITA
21-0.990.13-0.04-0.55+0.22
35DohertySeanUSA
14-0.49-0.33-0.61-0.46+0.25
36EderSimonAUT
15-0.67-0.86-1.12-0.78+0.28
37WegerBenjaminSUI
16-0.85-0.34-0.19-0.62+0.33
38HoferLukasITA
20-1.160.12-0.06-0.65+0.35

Women

Tang Jialin improved the most among regular starters, skiing an impressive 2.5% faster. Emma Lunder increased her hit rate from 74.3% to 82.1% and lowered her average Course Time rank by 7.4. Baiba Bendika improved virtually by the same amount, mostly thanks to skiing 1.7% faster. Not far behind was Tiril Eckhoff, who went on an incredible run of 6 wins in 8 races, in large parts thanks to a career-best hit rate (83.1%); her already high ski speed also increased slightly, however, she had been faster in 2015–16.

One of the pre-season favorites, Lisa Vittozzi, had a winter to forget: her overall shooting percentage fell by 7.6%, while her ski speed declined roughly to its 2017–18 level. Susan Dunklee proves that aggregate data isn’t everything, winning world championship silver in one of her worst seasons statistically. Dorothea Wierer claimed her second overall title, shooting minimally worse (-0.9%), but skiing faster than ever (career-best average Course Time rank: 10.0). Kaisa Mäkäräinen ended her long World Cup career (358 individual top-level races, 3rd all time) on a slight uptick; although her hit rate stayed below 80% for a second consecutive year, she managed to improve her ski speed in her final season.

2019–20 z-Scores compared to 2018–19 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1TangJialinCHN
14-0.36-0.941.15-0.35-0.49
2LunderEmmaCAN
18-0.50-0.57-1.29-0.61-0.46
3BendikaBaibaLAT
17-0.77-0.52-0.88-0.71-0.45
4EckhoffTirilNOR
20-1.57-0.67-0.40-1.17-0.42
5BraisazJustineFRA
21-1.450.09-0.18-0.85-0.35
6FialkovaIvonaSVK
16-0.800.25-0.30-0.44-0.33
7SemerenkoValentinaUKR
16-0.70-0.65-0.77-0.69-0.30
8ZukKamilaPOL
15-1.060.480.38-0.44-0.28
9SanfilippoFedericaITA
15-0.69-0.420.03-0.52-0.26
10PreussFranziskaGER
17-0.95-1.17-1.40-1.07-0.25
11DavidovaMarketaCZE
20-1.22-0.370.33-0.79-0.23
12RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
14-1.47-0.82-1.04-1.23-0.23
13Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
18-1.09-1.100.02-0.96-0.22
14TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
21-1.15-0.68-0.23-0.90-0.21
15AymonierCeliaFRA
15-1.42-0.080.59-0.79-0.21
16MakarainenKaisaFIN
21-1.56-0.240.42-0.94-0.20
17GasparinElisaSUI
15-0.46-0.47-0.58-0.47-0.18
18HerrmannDeniseGER
21-1.66-0.21-0.30-1.07-0.18
19Kristejn PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
16-0.48-0.64-0.67-0.55-0.18
20ZbylutKingaPOL
15-0.35-0.37-0.35-0.36-0.17
21SimonJuliaFRA
21-1.05-0.24-1.69-0.89-0.16
22HaeckiLenaSUI
18-1.040.49-1.49-0.65-0.15
23OebergHannaSWE
19-1.14-0.94-1.57-1.14-0.14
24Yurlova-PerchtEkaterinaRUS
19-0.82-0.74-1.01-0.82-0.13
25BescondAnaisFRA
20-1.03-0.55-0.34-0.81-0.11
26PerssonLinnSWE
18-0.89-0.91-0.13-0.81-0.10
27WiererDorotheaITA
21-1.24-0.73-1.43-1.11-0.09
28BrorssonMonaSWE
18-0.80-0.74-0.03-0.69-0.06
29HorchlerKarolinGER
14-0.41-1.01-0.59-0.61-0.06
30HauserLisa TheresaAUT
18-0.63-0.99-1.06-0.78-0.04
31FialkovaPaulinaSVK
19-1.01-0.62-0.39-0.83-0.02
32HinzVanessaGER
19-0.85-0.69-0.45-0.75+0.01
33EganClareUSA
14-0.79-0.640.09-0.64+0.01
34OjaReginaEST
15-0.06-0.29-0.79-0.21+0.02
35KryukoIrynaBLR
18-0.69-0.690.06-0.60+0.07
36DunkleeSusanUSA
14-0.720.20-0.61-0.44+0.14
37VittozziLisaITA
21-0.92-0.40-0.82-0.76+0.24
Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2019–20 season, overall performance, shooting, skiing

real biathlon is back

Posted on 2020-11-13 | by real biathlon | 2 Comments on real biathlon is back

After a long absence, it’s time to revive this website. I had always hoped to get back into posting biathlon statistics – if I found a way to automate the process more. Setting that up, however, seemed like a daunting task that would require a whole lot of time and work. So when I found myself stuck at home during the pandemic in the spring, I thought why not give this a try, especially since I had become much more experienced with programming and now had a background in computer science.

After countless hours and lots of work, the new and improved real biathlon website is finally ready for the upcoming season. Some of the more interesting features I came up with:

  • Athlete data for all available stats categories, including comparisons between athletes
  • Team results and statistics for all nations, including mixed or combined teams and team comparisons
  • Aggregate data for every season, every World Cup trimester, every championship and every single World Cup (e.g. men’s skiing stats for Antholz 2020 WCH or women’s shooting times of the 2019–20 season)
  • Skiing, shooting, range and loop times, as well as charts, for every race since 2001–02 (absolute or relative to specific athlete)
  • Charts showing the progress during a race/split times (absolute or relative to specific athlete)
  • Shooting intervals and patterns of all races since 2016–17
  • World Cup score tables and charts for every World Cup globe ever
  • All-time records for athletes and teams, at World Cup, World Championship or Olympic level (for every discipline), plus World Cup titles

The first hurdle was building an entirely new biathlon database, compiling all Biathlon World Cup data I could get my hands on. It turned into a much bigger project than I had anticipated, primarily because of the many inconsistencies in official data from the International Biathlon Union (IBU), which made it a real nightmare to get consistent results.

Eventually, I managed to merge all relevant IBU results with data from secondary sources (specifically the SQLite database of the Run&Shoot App, developed by Vladimir Filatov, as well as results on different editions of Wikipedia). While some data errors undoubtedly remain (that’s almost unavoidable with a data set of this size: 2199 top-level races featuring 3342 different athletes), I have collected quite reliable data for:

  • Every World Championship and Olympic race (since 1958)
  • Results for every World Cup race since the very first season in 1977–78 (albeit only partial results for some of the early seasons, but every podium finisher ever)
  • Shooting results since the 1980s
  • Skiing and shooting times since 2001–02
  • Split times/shooting intervals since 2016–17

Making the collected data available online was another big challenge. I’m not a web developer, so this website won’t win any design awards, but I did my best to make it as easy to use as possible; the main focus however was functionality. Special thanks to the members of our forum who helped with testing.

Keeping my fingers crossed that the 2020–21 Biathlon World Cup season will go ahead as planned, I’ll try my best to update all data as quickly as possible after each race. I hope that you will find this new website useful and full of interesting information, and you will enjoy exploring its features and statistics during the upcoming biathlon winter.

Posted in Website updates

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