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Best performers in January

Posted on 2022-01-23 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Best performers in January

Who is in top shape going into the Winter Olympics which start in less than two weeks? A lot of favorites skipped some races recently, still the January results probably give a better indication of current form than the races in December.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

2021โ€“22 z-Scores in January | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1LoginovAlexandrRUS
59.439.8-1.43-1.00-0.72-1.22
2LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
43.844.8-1.51-0.80-0.40-1.17
3BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
413.832.5-1.83-0.07-0.58-1.17
4BoeTarjeiNOR
46.341.5-1.78-0.36-0.01-1.16
5Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
66.744.5-1.44-0.67-0.93-1.16
6DollBenediktGER
613.233.7-1.40-0.77-0.79-1.14
7SamuelssonSebastianSWE
410.335.0-1.27-1.04-0.48-1.11
8LesserErikGER
48.834.0-1.04-1.04-1.09-1.04
9TsvetkovMaksimRUS
423.516.2-1.10-1.040.10-0.94
10SerokhvostovDaniilRUS
414.821.2-1.13-0.70-0.32-0.91
11DesthieuxSimonFRA
616.726.8-1.02-0.87-0.43-0.90
12ClaudeFabienFRA
617.324.2-1.14-0.36-1.00-0.90
13JacquelinEmilienFRA
520.426.0-0.91-0.62-1.31-0.87
14KhaliliSaid KarimullaRUS
526.617.2-0.96-1.00-0.14-0.87
15BabikovAntonRUS
519.632.0-0.77-1.12-0.59-0.85
16HoferLukasITA
421.020.5-1.07-0.36-0.52-0.80
17BakkenSivert GuttormNOR
421.021.0-1.15-0.07-0.74-0.79
18SeppalaTeroFIN
619.023.2-0.91-0.67-0.45-0.78
19EderSimonAUT
521.618.5-0.44-1.12-1.47-0.76
20NawrathPhilippGER
433.010.5-1.28-0.020.07-0.75
21LeitnerFelixAUT
429.813.5-0.92-0.51-0.47-0.74
22SmolskiAntonBLR
620.324.8-1.04-0.360.08-0.71
23ReesRomanGER
515.027.4-0.71-0.74-0.58-0.70
24PonsiluomaMartinSWE
431.014.0-1.110.32-0.81-0.66
25ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
419.321.8-0.94-0.07-0.31-0.61
26ClaudeFlorentBEL
622.219.5-0.52-1.070.31-0.58
27KrcmarMichalCZE
628.513.8-0.55-0.77-0.11-0.56
28HiidensaloOlliFIN
530.211.3-0.52-0.74-0.24-0.55
29BormoliniThomasITA
622.217.7-0.64-0.46-0.23-0.54
30GuigonnatAntoninFRA
541.012.0-0.73-0.11-0.63-0.54
31StroliaVytautasLTU
521.220.8-0.52-0.49-0.34-0.49
32VaclavikAdamCZE
539.25.8-0.850.15-0.16-0.48
33PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
432.310.0-0.770.49-1.15-0.45
34BurkhalterJoschaSUI
427.313.80.02-0.87-1.75-0.45
35IlievVladimirBUL
541.87.4-0.800.020.14-0.45
36PovarnitsynAlexanderRUS
537.03.2-0.34-0.53-0.78-0.45
37GiacomelTommasoITA
443.84.5-0.910.66-0.70-0.43
38WindischDominikITA
537.411.0-0.840.53-0.57-0.41
39TsymbalBogdanUKR
533.412.8-0.26-0.74-0.33-0.41
40FakJakovSLO
537.811.8-0.11-0.87-0.63-0.39

Women

2021โ€“22 z-Scores in January | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesRank
(avg)
Points
(avg)
Ski Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
1RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
41.358.5-1.36-1.35-1.94-1.43
2OebergHannaSWE
46.341.0-1.45-0.73-1.99-1.31
3SimonJuliaFRA
68.239.0-1.30-0.61-2.10-1.20
4OebergElviraSWE
46.344.0-1.52-0.73-0.71-1.19
5AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
64.343.7-1.37-0.79-1.26-1.19
6WiererDorotheaITA
66.840.2-1.14-0.51-2.29-1.10
7BrorssonMonaSWE
511.032.0-1.39-0.54-0.55-1.04
8Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
614.031.7-1.760.14-0.30-1.03
9Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
58.835.6-0.94-0.89-1.50-0.99
10DavidovaMarketaCZE
613.528.2-1.23-0.51-0.24-0.90
11SolaHannaBLR
523.016.7-1.420.51-1.65-0.89
12TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
48.533.8-1.26-0.22-0.11-0.82
13ReztsovaKristinaRUS
516.226.4-1.370.39-0.98-0.81
14HauserLisa TheresaAUT
613.027.7-0.83-0.33-1.71-0.79
15PerssonLinnSWE
426.318.8-1.11-0.11-0.70-0.77
16NigmatullinaUlianaRUS
534.816.2-0.76-0.77-0.46-0.72
17Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
428.014.5-0.73-0.73-0.65-0.72
18ChevalierChloeFRA
618.522.5-0.95-0.42-0.11-0.69
19VoigtVanessaGER
517.623.8-0.56-1.240.07-0.68
20BescondAnaisFRA
623.524.8-1.02-0.05-0.51-0.67
21HildebrandFranziskaGER
622.819.0-0.91-0.33-0.28-0.66
22StremousAlinaMDA
622.718.3-0.93-0.791.35-0.61
23VasnetcovaValeriiaRUS
626.718.0-0.840.04-1.08-0.61
24HinzVanessaGER
435.510.3-0.82-0.11-0.42-0.56
25EderMariFIN
522.415.5-1.240.390.46-0.56
26KazakevichIrinaRUS
630.814.2-0.94-0.140.29-0.56
27MinkkinenSuviFIN
438.88.8-0.24-0.89-1.35-0.56
28HaeckiLenaSUI
431.010.3-0.43-0.22-1.94-0.55
29TodorovaMilenaBUL
536.45.6-0.840.04-0.30-0.52
30ErdalKarolineNOR
436.014.3-0.52-0.42-0.54-0.49
31BendikaBaibaLAT
436.55.4-0.950.35-0.16-0.48
32SanfilippoFedericaITA
444.55.0-0.930.040.64-0.46
33HerrmannDeniseGER
428.59.6-1.140.660.16-0.46
34JislovaJessicaCZE
622.318.7-0.25-1.070.00-0.46
35ZukKamilaPOL
431.810.3-0.950.51-0.36-0.45
36TomingasTuuliEST
533.08.6-0.64-0.300.19-0.44
37LienIdaNOR
433.510.8-1.070.580.19-0.44
38FialkovaIvonaSVK
542.82.0-0.790.39-0.72-0.44
39LeshchankaIrynaBLR
441.59.6-0.880.35-0.12-0.43
40LieLotteBEL
636.57.8-0.09-0.89-0.60-0.39
Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2021โ€“22 season, Data, overall performance

Olympic medals in biathlon (1960 – 2018)

Posted on 2022-01-12 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Olympic medals in biathlon (1960 – 2018)

All medals (men and women)

Individual gold medals (men and women)

Posted in Biathlon Media, Long-term trends | Tagged results

Most accurate shooters in biathlon (1995 – 2021)

Posted on 2022-01-08 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Most accurate shooters in biathlon (1995 – 2021)

Men’s and women’s top shooters (by non-team shooting percentage) for the last two decades. The videos show a 16-race moving average.

Men

Women

Posted in Biathlon Media, Long-term trends | Tagged shooting

Fastest skiers in biathlon (2001 – 2021)

Posted on 2021-12-28 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Fastest skiers in biathlon (2001 – 2021)

The bars show a 7-race moving average for the percentage back from the top 30 median. Unfortunately, no data exists before the 2001โ€“02 season.

Women

Men

Posted in Biathlon Media, Long-term trends, Statistical analysis | Tagged skiing

Most improved athletes this winter

Posted on 2021-12-19 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Most improved athletes this winter

Improvements in Total Performance Scores of regular World Cup athletes. The last row of both tables shows improvement and decline in overall scores for this season compared to performances last season (only athletes with at least 6 races this winter). You can do your own season-to-season comparisons for all stats in the Patreon bonus area.


Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.


Men

2021โ€“22 z-Scores compared to 2020โ€“21 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1StefanssonMalteSWE
6-0.340.610.770.07-0.63
2DudchenkoAntonUKR
6-0.89-0.940.16-0.78-0.50
3StroliaVytautasLTU
8-0.91-0.490.38-0.63-0.42
4SmolskiAntonBLR
9-1.25-0.82-0.71-1.06-0.40
5KuehnJohannesGER
7-1.20-0.65-0.25-0.93-0.39
6SchommerPaulUSA
7-0.08-0.72-0.01-0.26-0.37
7LatypovEduardRUS
9-1.30-0.99-0.86-1.16-0.36
8HiidensaloOlliFIN
6-0.52-0.491.07-0.32-0.34
9ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
9-1.38-1.40-0.53-1.29-0.30
10ClaudeFabienFRA
9-1.45-0.07-1.17-1.02-0.25
11NelinJesperSWE
6-1.280.09-0.10-0.74-0.25
12SeppalaTeroFIN
8-0.90-0.97-0.43-0.87-0.25
13BakkenSivert GuttormNOR
9-0.90-0.99-1.31-0.97-0.22
14FemlingPeppeSWE
7-0.50-0.72-0.87-0.61-0.21
15HornPhilippGER
8-1.02-0.29-0.21-0.71-0.20
16VarabeiMaksimBLR
7-0.930.330.61-0.38-0.19
17GowScottCAN
7-0.50-0.49-1.28-0.59-0.18
18GuigonnatAntoninFRA
9-1.30-0.40-0.22-0.91-0.17
19JacquelinEmilienFRA
9-1.72-0.49-0.91-1.26-0.14
20BormoliniThomasITA
9-0.50-0.82-0.83-0.63-0.12
21PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
6-0.86-0.68-0.60-0.78-0.11
22SamuelssonSebastianSWE
9-1.86-0.16-0.51-1.20-0.09
23LazouskiDzmitryBLR
8-0.35-0.200.57-0.20-0.09
24WegerBenjaminSUI
9-0.88-1.32-0.00-0.90-0.09
25LeitnerFelixAUT
9-0.77-0.90-0.14-0.73-0.09
26KhaliliSaid KarimullaRUS
9-0.70-1.07-0.19-0.75-0.07
27AndersenFilip FjeldNOR
7-0.720.41-0.44-0.36-0.06
28DesthieuxSimonFRA
9-1.39-0.49-0.66-1.04-0.02
29LangerThierryBEL
7-0.32-0.02-0.11-0.21-0.01
30StvrteckyJakubCZE
6-0.720.680.77-0.14+0.00
31NawrathPhilippGER
9-1.240.09-0.01-0.70+0.00
32BoeTarjeiNOR
9-1.39-0.90-0.52-1.15+0.02
33GowChristianCAN
7-0.33-0.95-1.08-0.60+0.02
34Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
9-1.55-0.82-0.97-1.27+0.02
35KobonokiTsukasaJPN
70.04-0.840.06-0.21+0.02
36GiacomelTommasoITA
7-0.810.68-1.00-0.40+0.05
37KrcmarMichalCZE
8-0.88-0.58-0.38-0.73+0.06
38OzakiKosukeJPN
8-0.09-0.100.700.00+0.08
39BrownJakeUSA
8-0.840.580.85-0.23+0.08
40DovzanMihaSLO
80.09-0.78-1.69-0.37+0.09
41ReesRomanGER
9-0.58-0.90-0.13-0.62+0.10
42LoginovAlexanderRUS
9-1.32-0.16-0.58-0.89+0.11
43DollBenediktGER
9-1.12-0.49-0.27-0.83+0.12
44YaliotnauRamanBLR
6-0.800.870.70-0.14+0.14
45EderSimonAUT
9-0.53-1.24-1.27-0.82+0.18
46ClaudeFlorentBEL
8-0.22-0.490.58-0.20+0.21
47BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
9-1.59-0.57-0.64-1.18+0.22
48LesserErikGER
8-0.69-0.68-1.13-0.74+0.24
49LaegreidSturla HolmNOR
8-0.97-1.55-1.05-1.15+0.24
50MukhinAlexandrKAZ
6-0.060.820.490.26+0.24
51BocharnikovSergeyBLR
6-0.54-0.040.10-0.32+0.26
52BauerKlemenSLO
6-0.120.97-0.640.13+0.27
53WindischDominikITA
6-0.610.74-0.39-0.19+0.36
54IlievVladimirBUL
6-0.761.260.63-0.01+0.41
55PonsiluomaMartinSWE
8-1.311.26-0.87-0.51+0.46
56GuzikGrzegorzPOL
60.410.970.520.59+0.47
57HoferLukasITA
9-0.63-0.65-0.18-0.58+0.50
58KomatzDavidAUT
70.22-0.840.57-0.05+0.50
59DohertySeanUSA
8-0.040.58-0.380.10+0.56

Women

2021โ€“22 z-Scores compared to 2020โ€“21 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1JislovaJessicaCZE
9-0.62-1.09-0.65-0.76-0.65
2LieLotteBEL
9-0.43-1.41-0.83-0.76-0.56
3SolaHannaBLR
9-1.47-0.28-1.62-1.14-0.55
4OebergElviraSWE
9-2.06-0.28-1.06-1.42-0.51
5MagnussonAnnaSWE
9-0.82-0.44-0.30-0.65-0.50
6BescondAnaisFRA
8-1.45-0.910.26-1.09-0.46
7VoigtVanessaGER
9-0.71-1.090.70-0.65-0.41
8StremousAlinaMDA
8-0.65-0.541.94-0.31-0.38
9NilssonStinaSWE
7-1.440.420.12-0.71-0.38
10FialkovaIvonaSVK
7-0.840.46-0.34-0.40-0.32
11BrorssonMonaSWE
9-1.04-0.36-0.73-0.81-0.32
12IrwinDeedraUSA
70.15-0.560.36-0.03-0.27
13Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
9-1.960.68-0.43-1.01-0.25
14Chevalier-BouchetAnaisFRA
9-1.31-0.36-1.32-1.03-0.25
15VinklarkovaTerezaCZE
60.57-0.130.410.34-0.23
16NigmatullinaUlianaRUS
9-0.81-1.09-0.62-0.87-0.19
17AlimbekavaDzinaraBLR
9-1.28-0.84-0.87-1.10-0.18
18TodorovaMilenaBUL
6-0.800.26-0.47-0.45-0.17
19VittozziLisaITA
9-0.970.20-1.68-0.71-0.17
20OebergHannaSWE
9-1.730.04-1.87-1.24-0.16
21MaedaSariJPN
6-0.831.100.21-0.14-0.15
22RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
9-1.50-1.17-1.30-1.38-0.12
23SimonJuliaFRA
8-1.390.40-1.83-0.93-0.10
24KlemencicPolonaSLO
7-0.000.34-0.150.08-0.09
25TachizakiFuyukoJPN
80.05-1.010.26-0.23-0.07
26ChevalierChloeFRA
7-1.160.340.82-0.48-0.06
27HauserLisa TheresaAUT
9-0.96-1.25-1.68-1.13-0.06
28DavidovaMarketaCZE
8-1.30-0.82-0.05-1.01-0.06
29KalkenbergEmilie AagheimNOR
6-0.36-0.630.02-0.39-0.06
30CharvatovaLucieCZE
7-1.071.02-0.53-0.40-0.04
31HerrmannDeniseGER
8-1.54-0.350.16-0.99-0.03
32MironovaSvetlanaRUS
9-0.86-0.44-0.64-0.71-0.01
33MinkkinenSuviFIN
70.22-1.12-0.39-0.24-0.01
34TomingasTuuliEST
7-0.410.120.17-0.19+0.02
35PerssonLinnSWE
7-1.13-0.33-0.49-0.82+0.03
36EganClareUSA
7-0.34-0.670.10-0.38+0.03
37AvvakumovaEkaterinaKOR
6-0.09-0.440.49-0.12+0.07
38TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
9-1.18-0.440.05-0.82+0.09
39KinnunenNastassiaFIN
60.070.121.300.23+0.10
40PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
70.06-0.67-0.24-0.18+0.10
41PreussFranziskaGER
6-1.50-0.26-0.61-1.03+0.12
42KruchinkinaElenaBLR
7-0.480.010.12-0.27+0.15
43HaeckiLenaSUI
8-0.47-0.54-1.26-0.59+0.15
44HinzVanessaGER
9-0.57-0.60-0.37-0.56+0.18
45KazakevichIrinaRUS
9-0.830.520.24-0.31+0.18
46EderMariFIN
9-1.190.841.30-0.30+0.19
47WiererDorotheaITA
9-1.03-0.60-1.05-0.91+0.19
48LienIdaNOR
7-1.200.460.25-0.55+0.19
49HettichJaninaGER
7-0.61-0.44-0.07-0.49+0.20
50LunderEmmaCAN
60.05-0.88-2.07-0.47+0.21
51FialkovaPaulinaSVK
6-0.720.680.45-0.17+0.23
52BilosiukOlenaUKR
70.05-1.23-0.03-0.33+0.27
53KuklinaLarisaRUS
6-0.510.12-0.64-0.35+0.28
54BendikaBaibaLAT
6-0.870.400.19-0.37+0.29
55Vishnevskaya-SheporenkoGalinaKAZ
60.17-0.441.250.12+0.29
56GasparinAitaSUI
6-0.03-0.30-0.71-0.19+0.29
57LeshchankaIrynaBLR
7-0.32-0.220.77-0.16+0.34
58ReidJoanneUSA
7-0.431.020.410.09+0.35
59KnottenKaroline OffigstadNOR
60.06-1.01-0.96-0.37+0.36
60ZukKamilaPOL
6-0.581.240.350.06+0.38
61EckhoffTirilNOR
7-1.500.34-0.66-0.86+0.41
62DzhimaYuliiaUKR
9-0.750.31-0.57-0.42+0.43
63Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
7-0.29-0.720.10-0.37+0.44
64ZdoucDunjaAUT
60.35-0.86-0.23-0.07+0.58
65BeaudrySarahCAN
61.12-0.72-0.320.41+0.62
66TalihaermJohannaEST
60.530.260.510.45+0.77

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