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Tag: shooting

Shooting percent over the last 14 years

Posted on 2015-12-25 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Shooting percent over the last 14 years

Two years ago I first looked at long-term trends in biathlon statistics, mainly to find out whether today’s athletes are better than previous generations, and how performance levels in the sport are developing in general. I now had another look at it, in order to see if anything had changed during the last two seasons (I haven’t included the currently ongoing season, because partial stats can be misleading). Here are the non-team shooting percentages over the last 14 seasons.
The stats are for the men’s and women’s overall World Cup top 40 (per season). I looked at their non-team percentages, split into quartiles. Quartiles divide the data into four equal groups (of 25 % each), i.e. the grey space between the 1st and 3rd quartile in the chart represents 50 % of the top 40 athletes. Unlike standard statistical methods, such as the average, the use of quartiles (like the median = 2nd quartile) is statistically a more robust method and more resistant to outliers. 

In men’s World cup races, both the top 40’s median and the top 40’s average has improved by more than 3% since 2001–02. Last season was one of the best years shooting-wise, only the maximum (most accurate shooter) is clearly lower than in past years (in the first half of the last decade), but the median and 1st/3rd quartiles were at an all-time high in 2014–15, continuing the upward trend since the early 2000s. The worst shooter of the top 40 hits over 70% since 2009–10, before that the worst shooter always had a hit rate below 70%.

Top 40 2001
–02
  2002
–03
  2003
–04
  2004
–05
  2005
–06
  2006
–07
  2007
–08
  2008
–09
  2009
–10
  2010
–11
  2011
–12
  2012
–13
  2013
–14
  2014
–15
  Diff. 
Maximum91.192.392.792.092.492.188.989.390.090.988.990.691.990.3-0.8
1st quartile85.285.984.786.185.887.084.985.786.086.186.387.387.387.6+2.4
Median81.983.283.382.683.783.181.883.083.784.683.885.285.385.8+3.8
3rd quartile79.080.178.777.778.877.279.679.381.080.881.783.282.983.2+4.2
Minimum69.268.166.567.169.466.968.663.071.975.372.872.875.874.5+5.3
2001
–02
2002
–03
2003
–04
2004
–05
2005
–06
2006
–07
2007
–08
2008
–09
2009
–10
2010
–11
2011
–12
2012
–13
2013
–14
2014
–15
Diff.
Top 10 avg84.282.782.087.784.287.883.985.484.785.485.887.086.886.6+2.4
Top 20 avg83.584.382.284.584.485.883.883.683.684.784.686.585.786.2+2.8
Top 40 avg81.583.081.981.882.482.281.582.183.383.783.784.785.084.9+3.4
Top 60 avg81.081.580.381.182.282.281.281.581.982.682.584.184.383.9+2.9
Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The women’s shooting results look very similar to the men’s. For the last 14 seasons they have been creeping higher, although not by quite as much. They improved by more than 2%  (the mean is currently 2.3% higher, the average is 2.5% higher than 2001–02). For 2014–15, the men’s median shooter was slightly better than the women’s (85.8% vs. 84.7%), although there have been seasons where it was the other way around.

Top 40 2001
–02
  2002
–03
  2003
–04
  2004
–05
  2005
–06
  2006
–07
  2007
–08
  2008
–09
  2009
–10
  2010
–11
  2011
–12
  2012
–13
  2013
–14
  2014
–15
  Diff. 
Maximum88.992.489.090.393.391.591.892.691.089.094.395.191.192.6+3.7
1st quartile84.686.183.285.085.286.086.287.186.685.385.287.686.786.9+2.3
Median82.483.080.380.383.082.484.082.185.083.682.285.384.384.7+2.3
3rd quartile78.878.478.478.478.079.581.279.781.981.376.978.980.382.0+3.2
Minimum65.668.264.064.562.866.273.872.975.869.570.871.175.069.8+4.2
2001
–02
2002
–03
2003
–04
2004
–05
2005
–06
2006
–07
2007
–08
2008
–09
2009
–10
2010
–11
2011
–12
2012
–13
2013
–14
2014
–15
Diff.
Top 10 avg83.384.681.281.284.884.185.784.285.983.886.182.985.185.7+2.4
Top 20 avg81.384.381.382.683.783.984.484.485.782.884.483.385.384.8+3.5
Top 40 avg81.382.180.281.181.782.483.783.084.483.081.783.483.983.8+2.5
Top 60 avg80.480.779.479.881.181.482.181.983.681.881.381.782.882.7+2.3
Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons



The shooting results in general continue to improve across the board. It’s impossible to say by how much exactly, results differ a lot depending on what group you look at or what method you use. To put a number on it, I’d say non-team shooting percentages are roughly 2-3% higher now than they were back in 2001–02. It’s unclear how much they can improve further before hitting a ceiling, because unlike ski speed, the hit rate has an absolute limit at 100%.

Posted in Long-term trends | Tagged shooting

Who shoots better: Men or Women?

Posted on 2013-08-27 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Who shoots better: Men or Women?

According to my blog stats the question if men or women are the better shots has always been one of the top search keywords that point people to this site. I wrote a post about that a long time ago, but since it’s of high interest apparently I took a more detailed look at the gender differences in biathlon shooting.

Note: It’s difficult to make any definitive statements about shooting trends, because it all depends on what group of athletes you look at. There isn’t one single group which represents the strength of the whole field perfectly, so it will always be slightly imprecise.

2001
–02
2002
–03
2003
–04
2004
–05
2005
–06
2006
–07
2007
–08
2008
–09
2009
–10
2010
–11
2011
–12
2012
–13
Top 10+3.0-1.4+2.9+6.6-0.3+2.8-2.2+1.7-1.6+1.6-0.8+1.6
Top 20+2.6+1.0+3.0+2.2+1.3+1.9+0.7+0.4-1.9+2.0-0.5+1.2
Top 30+1.2-0.3+2.7+4.1+1.2+1.5-1.0-0.3-1.5+1.6-0.2+0.1
Top 40-0.5+0.3+3.0+2.3+0.7+0.7-2.2+1.0-1.3+1.0+1.6-0.1
Top 60-0.2+0.8-0.2+1.6+1.6+1.2-1.3+0.9-2.0+0.3+1.0+2.3
Top 100+0.2+1.9-0.1+0.5+2.3+0.6-0.1+0.6-2.4+0.2-0.1+2.2
Shooting percentage differences  (in %)    Men / Women   per selected group, last 12 years
Positive values: men were more accurate; Negative values: women were more accurate

During the last 12 seasons, the differences in non-team shooting accuracy between men and women have been small. For two seasons (2007–08 and 2009–10) women were better, in 2004–05, 2006–07 and 2010–11 men are ahead across the board. For most of the other seasons there is no clear picture, although men’s shooting results lead more of the selected groups (and often with bigger margins).


Last year, the shooting percentages for men and women were virtually identical for the top 30 or top 40, however men were over 2 % more accurate in the broader groups (top 60 or top 100). Overall, you probably have to give men a slight edge (of maybe 1 %), even though women were clearly better from 2007–08 to 2009–10.

2001
–02
2002
–03
2003
–04
2004
–05
2005
–06
2006
–07
2007
–08
2008
–09
2009
–10
2010
–11
2011
–12
2012
–13
Top 10+4.2+1.4+3.3+2.4+3.3+1.7+2.8+3.1+4.3+4.3+3.4+5.2
Top 20+3.7+1.5+2.4+1.7+2.6+3.2+3.0+3.2+2.9+3.3+3.4+3.5
Top 30+2.3+1.6+2.3+2.0+3.5+3.7+3.2+3.3+2.5+3.5+3.8+3.7
Top 40+2.3+2.3+2.0+2.2+3.7+3.4+2.7+3.4+2.5+4.1+4.2+3.5
Top 60+2.8+2.9+2.6+2.6+2.6+3.3+3.4+3.1+2.8+3.8+4.2+3.7
Top 100 +2.8+3.1+3.0+2.3+2.6+3.4+2.7+3.2+3.4+4.1+3.9+4.2
Male Shooting Time advantage  (in sec) per selected group, last 12 years

In terms of shooting time, the gender differences are much more obvious. Men shoot considerably faster. In fact, men have increased the gap from about 3 to 4 seconds in the last 12 years. 
Physical strength plays a small part in shooting (relative to their body weight the rifle (3.5 kg) is heavier for most women), but differences of 10 % and more in average shooting time are quite a lot. The large gap might partly be down to a different mental approach (risk taking/range strategy?).

If you combine shooting accuracy and shooting pace and look at the time lost at the shooting range, the gap between men and women becomes much bigger (about 20 s last season for sprints). However, at least half of that range time is spent on skis, so this comparison is unfair: women lose almost 2 seconds approaching and exiting the range and they ski the penalty loop about 3 seconds slower than men.

What’s the bottom line? Generally, men shoot better than women: they are not necessarily more accurate, but on average much quicker (in a sprint about 4*2 = 8 seconds only in “shooting time” last year).

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged shooting

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