real biathlon
    • Athletes
    • Teams
    • Races
    • Seasons
    • Scores
    • Records
    • Blog(current)
    • More
      Patreon Content Course Profiles Explanations Shortcuts
      Error Report
      Privacy Policy About
    •     
  • Forum
  • Patreon
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
    Instagram
    Facebook

Recent Articles

  • Most improved athletes this winter
  • New biathlon point system
  • Historic biathlon results create expectations. But what about points?
  • What do you expect? Practical applications of the W.E.I.S.E.
  • Introducing W. E. I. S. E: the Win Expectancy Index based on Statistical Exploration, version 1

Categories

  • Biathlon Media
  • Biathlon News
  • Long-term trends
  • Statistical analysis
  • Website updates

Archives

  • 2022
    • December
    • June
    • May
    • March
    • February
    • January
  • 2021
    • December
    • November
    • September
    • July
    • June
    • May
    • April
    • March
    • February
    • January
  • 2020
    • December
    • November
    • August
    • June
    • March
  • 2015
    • December
  • 2013
    • August
    • July
  • 2012
    • July

Search Articles

Recent Tweets

Tweets by realbiathlon

Year: 2020

Support real biathlon on Patreon

Posted on 2020-12-04 | by real biathlon | 2 Comments on Support real biathlon on Patreon

You can now support real biathlon on PATREON. For your troubles, you get bonus statistics, direct database access and the knowledge that your support helps keep the website running and all statistics up to date.

Frankly, I feel a bit strange asking for contributions, but after some pretty high traffic for this site during the initial World Cup weekend, I fear that after putting a lot of time into this project in the summer, I now might have to pay for it in the winter – specifically covering costs for exceeding free-tier database limits. The ads on this site don’t generate a lot of money, so after thinking about it for a while, I decided to give this Patreon idea a try.

Since I didn’t just want to ask for donations with nothing in return, I came up with a few Patreon rewards I believe should be interesting for biathlon enthusiasts. I added a new page realbiathlon.com/patreon – you can get the password as a patron. Also, there’s the option to get direct database access; if that’s something you are interested in.

These are the bonus statistics I set up initially (there will probably be more later):

  • Stats per Nation: All-time results and data for each country in individual events
  • Season-to-Season Changes: Comparisons across seasons for most athlete statistics
  • Race Projections: Predictions for each discipline and event based on season stats
  • Long-term trends: Performance trends in ski speed, shooting accuracy and shooting pace

I hope most of these additional stats are quite useful and interesting. I compiled another data set for each national team, but this time with results not for relays, but for all non-team events per nation, including (averaged) shooting and skiing data.

France Men | Top 3 per race (10 race moving average)

Here are two examples of available bonus statistics: The first chart shows the French results declining a lot after Raphaël Poirée‘s retirement, but currently they are doing a lot better compensating for Martin Fourcade‘s absence. Germany’s women on the other hand had their peak in the mid-2000s (with over 20% of their athletes on the podium), and a steep decline after Magdalena Neuner‘s retirement.

Germany Women | Results per race

I have already used some of the other stats I created in recent posts, namely Ski Speed comparison season-to-season or Projection for the season opener; that should give you an idea what to expect (available for many other categories and seasons). Examples for long term biathlon trends can be seen here.

Should you be interested in digging into the data for yourself, I set up a way to allow direct access to the real biathlon databases in several programming languages (Java, Python, C#, C++, C, R) – please keep in mind you will need at least some programming skill to utilize them. All are MongoDB (NoSQL) databases hosted on MongoDB Atlas (data is in JSON format).

One thing I was especially unsure about was finding appropriate tier levels. I set up the higher tiers more as a joke – please only consider them if you are looking for a quick way to get rid of your money. 😉

real biathlon on PATREON

Posted in Website updates

Ski Speed comparison season-to-season

Posted on 2020-12-02 | by real biathlon | 5 Comments on Ski Speed comparison season-to-season

It’s probably no use to look at shooting percentages after only 30 shots at the beginning of a season, however, the ski speed at the first World Cup weekend might already tell us at least a little bit where the season is going and how the ski form for some of the top athletes might have changed over the summer.

If you can’t find a specific athlete, you can always look up complete World Cup statistics for the ongoing season here:

  • Ski speed: Men | Women
  • Shooting percentage: Men | Women
  • Shooting Times: Men | Women

Note: Only athletes with at least 15 races last season and 2 races this season are included in the two tables below. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per season).


Men

Sergey Bocharnikov was the most improved overall; he skied 4.7% faster and lowered his average ski rank by 38.7. Maybe even more impressive though, Sebastian Samuelsson and Martin Ponsiluoma both improved by 3.7%, and did so on a much higher level. Surprise winner Sturla Holm Lægreid does not show up here, because he only appeared in 4 races last season, however, he did improve his speed by 1.7%

Johannes Thingnes Bø continued where he left off: he was not simply the fastest overall (over 1% ahead of the 2nd fastest, his brother Tarjei Bø), he also set the top Course Time in both races. One of the pre-season favorites, Quentin Fillon Maillet, shot great (96.7%), but did not have the best weekend skiing-wise (his average ski rank increased from 5.6 to 15.0). Dmytro Pidruchnyi struggled the most, he was 3.3% slower than last season.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1BocharnikovSergeyBLR
210.5-38.7-0.99-4.67
2SamuelssonSebastianSWE
23.5-25.2-2.23-3.69
3PonsiluomaMartinSWE
24.5-22.6-2.16-3.67
4NelinJesperSWE
28.5-16.1-0.95-1.89
5FakJakovSLO
217.5-12.5+0.10-1.58
6MoravecOndrejCZE
231.5-8.2+1.45-1.37
7ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
29.5-7.6-1.26-1.26
8BoeTarjeiNOR
23.0-5.0-2.48-1.15
9BauerKlemenSLO
236.0-10.2+2.17-1.10
10JacquelinEmilienFRA
26.5-5.2-1.41-0.92
11BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
21.0-2.0-3.61-0.71
12ClaudeFlorentBEL
237.0-3.2+2.37-0.58
13ClaudeFabienFRA
212.5-2.5-0.44-0.48
14RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
218.0+0.4+0.16-0.31
15LoginovAlexanderRUS
213.5-4.0-0.21-0.28
16HoferLukasITA
217.5+1.8-0.09-0.20
17DaleJohannesNOR
210.0+0.2-1.28-0.09
18PeifferArndGER
216.5+0.9-0.13-0.08
19IlievVladimirBUL
224.0+2.0+0.72+0.02
20KrcmarMichalCZE
232.0+4.8+1.51+0.02
21SeppalaTeroFIN
232.5+4.7+1.62+0.29
22EliseevMatveyRUS
235.5+7.9+2.39+0.31
23WegerBenjaminSUI
234.0+5.3+2.00+0.43
24LeitnerFelixAUT
230.0+6.5+1.36+0.47
25GuigonnatAntoninFRA
232.5+10.5+1.66+0.52
26BjoentegaardErlendNOR
216.5+6.4+0.08+0.97
27DesthieuxSimonFRA
221.0+8.7+0.40+1.04
28EderSimonAUT
245.0+9.5+3.60+1.35
29PrymaArtemUKR
243.0+14.6+3.13+1.48
30Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
215.0+9.4-0.30+1.76
31DollBenediktGER
225.0+15.1+0.92+1.92
32EberhardJulianAUT
229.5+18.4+1.38+2.09
33KuehnJohannesGER
223.5+16.8+0.79+2.14
34FemlingPeppeSWE
265.5+17.9+5.54+2.31
35PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
257.0+33.1+4.59+3.33

Women

Among regular starters, Elvira Öberg was by far the most improved, 3.7% faster than last season. Her sister Hanna Öberg also improved a lot; the Kontiolahti sprint was her first ever race setting the top ski time. Lisa Theresa Hauser and Franziska Preuß also got considerably faster, but their improvement might not have been as obvious, because both hit only 25 out of 30 targets (83.3%), some 3-5% below their shooting percentage from last winter.

Lena Häcki, Julia Simon and Monika Hojnisz-Staręga all struggled to get going, skiing at least 3% slower. Hojnisz-Staręga had a particularly bad season opening, her average ski rank was 46.5 higher than last season, 5.0% behind her ski speed from last winter. Alongside the Öberg sisters, Tiril Eckhoff was fastest overall (but only managed a 66.7% hit rate). Last year’s top skier, Denise Herrmann, was not at her peak speed yet (+1.2%), however, her career-high 86.7% hit rate looks promising.

Changes in Ski Speed compared to 2019–20 season

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Rank
(avg)
Changeback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Change
1OebergElviraSWE
23.5-22.0-2.07-3.68
2HauserLisa TheresaAUT
216.0-18.7+0.16-1.93
3OebergHannaSWE
23.5-10.6-2.02-1.63
4PreussFranziskaGER
212.0-10.2-0.26-0.92
5TalihaermJohannaEST
250.0-4.3+3.85-0.64
6TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
26.0-6.7-1.18-0.63
7BrorssonMonaSWE
222.5-5.3+0.65-0.62
8GasparinAitaSUI
247.0+3.8+3.34-0.11
9KryukoIrynaBLR
227.5-1.0+1.58-0.09
10LunderEmmaCAN
240.5+2.0+2.70-0.09
11CharvatovaLucieCZE
226.0+1.1+1.43-0.05
12DavidovaMarketaCZE
210.5-0.3-0.55+0.28
13Braisaz-BouchetJustineFRA
26.5+0.7-1.71+0.30
14BescondAnaisFRA
217.5+0.1+0.40+0.33
15EckhoffTirilNOR
24.0-1.5-2.15+0.35
16GasparinElisaSUI
261.5+11.3+4.42+0.64
17PerssonLinnSWE
226.5+3.9+1.50+0.69
18EderMariFIN
216.5+3.0+0.07+0.71
19RiederChristinaAUT
272.5+14.2+6.25+0.92
20SanfilippoFedericaITA
247.0+8.4+3.54+1.07
21InnerhoferKatharinaAUT
225.0+6.6+1.37+1.12
22PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
255.5+18.4+4.10+1.12
23HerrmannDeniseGER
26.5+3.9-1.85+1.18
24ZbylutKingaPOL
271.0+18.1+5.81+1.63
25OjaReginaEST
279.5+20.2+7.41+1.90
26ZukKamilaPOL
238.0+17.5+2.42+2.05
27WiererDorotheaITA
225.0+15.0+1.33+2.32
28HinzVanessaGER
250.5+27.4+3.62+2.58
29VittozziLisaITA
243.5+23.5+3.27+2.74
30KuklinaLarisaRUS
258.0+22.7+5.03+2.77
31SemerenkoVitaUKR
273.5+28.5+6.25+2.89
32HaeckiLenaSUI
245.5+28.6+3.35+3.17
33SimonJuliaFRA
247.5+33.0+3.28+3.38
34Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
263.5+46.5+4.87+5.01
Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, ski speed, skiing

Shooting Speed

Posted on 2020-12-02 | by biathlonanalytics | Leave a Comment on Shooting Speed

An analysis of shooting speed in biathlon, using the women’s individual race in Kontiolahti as an example. The data came from the real biathlon website, here is the exact link.

To get this data in a workable format, I just copied the table, pasted it in a text editor and copied/pasted that to Google Sheets. From there I had to do some splitting and moving things around but it was still fairly easy to get a working table. The only time consuming part was manually assigning hits or misses, and for that reason I only did to for the top 30 athletes. Then I added som ecalcualtion for athlete averages, max and min shooting times, etc. Although that can be done in Tableau, I find once you start working with filters etc. in becomes unnessessarily compicated in Tableau, just much easier to calculate the fields in Google Sheets.

Just a reminder the Tableau Dashboard below is interactive and intended to be used for further exploration of data. If you open it on the Tableau Public site you can use it full screen. Enjoy!

Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged data visualization, Puck Possessed, shooting

Rule changes for the 2020–21 season

Posted on 2020-11-25 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Rule changes for the 2020–21 season

The International Biathlon Union (IBU) announced several rule changes for the upcoming 2020–21 season – for the most part temporary changes to due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here is a quick summary.

The one permanent change this winter is the introduction of the dark Blue Bib, which will be worn by the top competitor who has not turned 25 by December 31. The IBU Under 25 Award will be handed out at the end of the season, replacing the IBU Rookie of the Year award. Plans to introduce the experimental Super Sprint event on World Cup level were put on hold.

For the 2020–21 season only, the number of scratch results has been raised up to four for the World Cup Total Score. Scratch results are also introduced to the Nations Cup and Discipline scores as well as the IBU Cup Total Score. In case the total number of competitions are reduced, the number of scratched results will be deducted accordingly:

It’s quite the reversal for the IBU, because the sport had moved away from dropping results in the last two decades. The last time more than two results were dropped for the Overall World Cup Score was 2009–10, the last time four races were eliminated was the 1999–00 season. In Discipline World Cups, there hadn’t been any kind of scratch results since 2009–10 and no multiple scratched races since 1998–99. The Nations Cup had four dropped results until 2009–10, after that none.

Changing the number of dropped results from two to four might seem minor, but it could have a big impact on the outcome of the season. Last year, Tiril Eckhoff would have won the overall title if only 17 of the 21 races counted towards the final score (773 to 753 points); in reality, of course Dorothea Wierer won (793 to 786 points) because just the two lowest scores were eliminated.

The IBU obviously expects athletes to miss or intentionally skip more races this year, which seems reasonable. However, three dropped results for the sprint discipline for example is a lot (30% of an athlete’s results will not count), not to mention it’s quite disproportionate between the disciplines.

Number of races per score, if there are no cancelled events:

On a more technical level, the World Cup Qualification Criteria was adjusted as well, accounting for the late start of the IBU Cup season, which would be the normal route to the World Cup. Accordingly, for the first trimester only, each National Federation can register two athletes who have not fulfilled the qualification criteria. The start quotas for the World Cup remain the same.

You can find the full document about temporary changes here: Special Event and Competition Rules – COVID-19.

Posted in Biathlon News | Tagged 2020–21 season

Projection for the season opener

Posted on 2020-11-21 | by real biathlon | Leave a Comment on Projection for the season opener

The many statistics collected on this site allow to calculate a theoretical race time, solely based on performance data. I thought this might be an interesting exercise for the season opening 15/20km individuals – plus it’s a simple reminder where we left off. These aren’t meant to be serious predictions, of course. The individual is arguably the most unpredictable discipline and produces the most surprises anyway. Not to mention a lot usually changes during the off-season, maybe even more so this year.

Note: Projected times are calculated based on ski speed, hit rates and range times in last season’s three individuals (IN). Hit rates are rounded to the nearest full shot. The top 30 median Course Time at the 2015 Kontiolahti IN is used as reference (last IN held in Kontiolahti) and multiplied with last season’s IN ski speed in percent. The “Time Loss Shooting” column follows the idea of the Shooting Efficiency score.

Men 20 km Individual

Johannes Thingnes Bø comes out on top, “winning” by a margin of over one minute, which probably isn’t surprising, especially since Martin Fourcade is no longer there. However, he’s projected to win mostly due to his extremely high 93.3% hit rate (rounded to 19/20 hits for this), not because of his ski speed, which wasn’t that remarkable in this event last winter. Quentin Fillon Maillet and Tarjei Bø are second and third – both skied faster, but were less accurate at the shooting range in 2019–20 individuals.

Race Projection based on 2019–20 IN statistics

RankFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Projected
Course Time
Total
hit rate
(in %)
Projected
Time Loss
Shooting
Projected
Total
Race Time
Behind
RankFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Projected
Course Time
Total
hit rate
(in %)
Projected
Time Loss
Shooting
Projected
Total
Race Time
Behind
1BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
3-1.7143:23.895.004:30.447:54.2
2Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
3-3.8042:28.585.006:27.948:56.3+1:02.1
3BoeTarjeiNOR
3-1.7943:21.690.005:42.449:04.0+1:09.8
4ClaudeFabienFRA
3-0.8843:45.690.005:31.949:17.5+1:23.3
5JacquelinEmilienFRA
2-0.1544:05.190.005:27.349:32.4+1:38.3
6DollBenediktGER
3-1.5943:26.885.006:24.249:51.0+1:56.8
7EliseevMatveyRUS
2+1.0544:36.890.005:20.449:57.3+2:03.1
8WegerBenjaminSUI
3+0.1044:11.690.005:46.349:57.9+2:03.7
9NawrathPhilippGER
2+0.7944:29.990.005:37.450:07.3+2:13.1
10PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
2+1.2844:42.990.005:24.550:07.4+2:13.2
11LoginovAlexanderRUS
3-0.7943:48.285.006:19.850:08.0+2:13.8
12HoferLukasITA
3-1.6843:24.685.006:43.850:08.4+2:14.2
13DesthieuxSimonFRA
3-0.7743:48.585.006:25.950:14.4+2:20.2
14FakJakovSLO
3+1.8644:58.490.005:25.050:23.4+2:29.2
15DaleJohannesNOR
3-1.0043:42.685.006:47.150:29.7+2:35.6
16EderSimonAUT
3+2.3045:09.890.005:23.850:33.6+2:39.4
17MoravecOndrejCZE
3+2.2945:09.790.005:27.750:37.4+2:43.2
18HornPhilippGER
3+0.1344:12.485.006:30.550:42.9+2:48.7
19BjoentegaardErlendNOR
2+0.0144:09.385.006:38.250:47.5+2:53.3
20SamuelssonSebastianSWE
2+2.4845:14.690.005:38.550:53.2+2:59.0
21GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
3+1.2444:42.085.006:29.451:11.3+3:17.1
22PrymaArtemUKR
3+1.2344:41.585.006:37.751:19.2+3:25.0
23KuehnJohannesGER
3-0.9943:42.880.007:43.051:25.8+3:31.6
24NordgrenLeifUSA
3+4.0545:56.390.005:36.051:32.3+3:38.1
25RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
3-0.5943:53.380.007:47.251:40.5+3:46.3
26ClaudeFlorentBEL
3+3.5145:42.090.006:04.851:46.8+3:52.6
27EberhardJulianAUT
3+0.9344:33.680.007:16.751:50.3+3:56.1
28LesserErikGER
2+5.1846:26.290.005:24.551:50.8+3:56.6
29LatypovEduardRUS
3+2.5645:16.785.006:37.851:54.5+4:00.3
30DombrovskiKarolLTU
3+6.5447:02.295.004:56.451:58.7+4:04.5

Women 15 km Individual

Olympic champion Hanna Öberg failed to win an individual last season, however, she still won the discipline World Cup title; her as the projected winner is no surprise either. Marte Olsbu Røiseland and Monika Hojnisz-Staręga round out this theoretical podium. What’s maybe most noteworthy is the fact that eight athletes are inside a minute of the winning time (none for the men) – rather emblematic of the gender divide when it comes to competitiveness at the very top of the field in the last couple of seasons.

Race Projection based on 2019–20 IN statistics

RankFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Projected
Course Time
Total
hit rate
(in %)
Projected
Time Loss
Shooting
Projected
Total
Race Time
Behind
RankFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesback from
Top30 median
(in %)
Projected
Course Time
Total
hit rate
(in %)
Projected
Time Loss
Shooting
Projected
Total
Race Time
Behind
1OebergHannaSWE
3-0.9538:43.790.005:20.844:04.5
2RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
3-2.6438:04.285.006:31.644:35.8+31.3
3Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
3-0.8638:45.890.005:52.344:38.1+33.6
4HerrmannDeniseGER
3-2.9737:56.385.006:42.544:38.8+34.3
5WiererDorotheaITA
3-1.6038:28.485.006:22.044:50.4+45.9
6KuklinaLarisaRUS
3+1.4739:40.490.005:17.344:57.7+53.2
7PreussFranziskaGER
3+1.3039:36.590.005:21.544:57.9+53.4
8BraisazJustineFRA
3-2.8237:59.985.007:00.044:59.9+55.4
9HinzVanessaGER
3+0.9339:27.990.005:38.445:06.3+1:01.7
10DzhimaYuliiaUKR
3+1.4039:38.790.005:41.045:19.7+1:15.2
11StarykhIrinaRUS
2+1.9439:51.690.005:41.945:33.5+1:29.0
12DavidovaMarketaCZE
3-1.3438:34.585.007:07.245:41.8+1:37.3
13BrorssonMonaSWE
2+2.4340:03.190.005:40.145:43.3+1:38.8
14LunderEmmaCAN
2+3.4540:26.990.005:20.445:47.3+1:42.8
15TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
3-0.1839:01.885.006:54.145:55.9+1:51.4
16VittozziLisaITA
3+0.7839:24.385.006:39.346:03.6+1:59.1
17EckhoffTirilNOR
3-2.0138:18.880.007:52.746:11.5+2:07.0
18SimonJuliaFRA
3-0.4438:55.880.007:17.346:13.1+2:08.6
19Yurlova-PerchtEkaterinaRUS
3+1.4239:39.385.006:35.046:14.3+2:09.8
20Kristejn PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
3+3.9340:38.390.005:45.546:23.7+2:19.2
21TodorovaMilenaBUL
2+4.2640:45.890.005:58.546:44.3+2:39.8
22EganClareUSA
3+1.9439:51.485.006:56.946:48.3+2:43.8
23HauserLisa TheresaAUT
3+3.1240:19.385.006:31.146:50.4+2:45.8
24BescondAnaisFRA
3+0.0239:06.680.007:44.346:50.9+2:46.4
25GasparinAitaSUI
3+3.0840:18.385.006:33.546:51.8+2:47.3
26FialkovaPaulinaSVK
2+0.0139:06.280.007:46.446:52.6+2:48.1
27MerkushynaAnastasiyaUKR
3+4.1540:43.485.006:18.547:02.0+2:57.5
28RiederChristinaAUT
3+5.9141:24.790.005:52.047:16.8+3:12.3
29SchwaigerJuliaAUT
3+4.0940:41.885.006:37.947:19.7+3:15.2
30ZdoucDunjaAUT
2+6.9741:49.490.005:33.047:22.5+3:17.9
Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2020–21 season, projection, results

Posts navigation

Older posts
Newer posts

Recent Articles

  • Most improved athletes this winter
  • New biathlon point system
  • Historic biathlon results create expectations. But what about points?
  • What do you expect? Practical applications of the W.E.I.S.E.
  • Introducing W. E. I. S. E: the Win Expectancy Index based on Statistical Exploration, version 1

Categories

  • Biathlon Media
  • Biathlon News
  • Long-term trends
  • Statistical analysis
  • Website updates

Archives by Month

  • 2022: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2021: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2020: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2015: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2013: J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 2012: J F M A M J J A S O N D

Search Articles