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Improvements season-to-season

Posted on 2020-11-18 | by real biathlon

The new website allows you to look up basic biathlon data on your own (for different disciplines, periods, categories, etc.), so I won’t be posting too many of the regular statistical updates that I have done in the past. If you are interested in a specific statistic or ranking, you can always check out:

  • 2019–20 Shooting hit rates: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Ski speed: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Shooting Times: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Range Times: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Shooting efficiency: Men | Women
  • 2019–20 Overall Performance Score: Men | Women

These will be updated after each race. I thought it would still be interesting though to take one high-level look at last season’s performances. Below I listed the season-to-season changes in the Overall Performance Score of regular World Cup athletes (at least 14 races in the last two seasons).

Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate values better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.

Men

Émilien Jacquelin was the most improved athlete last season, getting better in all major aspects of the sport: 5.5% higher hit rate, 1.8% faster skiing and 1.8s lower range time. Vytautas Strolia improved by the same amount, albeit on a much lower level, earning his first career top 20. They are followed by Johannes Kühn, who almost halved his average ski rank (12.3 to 6.7), and Erlend Bjøntegaard, who managed to increase his hit rate by 7.4%. On the flip side, Lukas Hofer‘s and Benjamin Weger‘s performance scores declined the most; both skiing over 1% slower; Hofer also hit 4.5% less of his targets.

Martin Fourcade ended his record-breaking career with his highest ever hit rate (91.8%), while his ski speed was almost back to his previous best (after a big decline in 2018–19): he had an average Course Time rank of 6.0 last winter – in 5 of his 7 title winning seasons his average ski rank was in the 4.5-5.0 range. The improvement of the French men really stand out (three in the top 10 below). Quentin Fillon Maillet became the second-fastest skier overall (1.5% faster). Johannes Thingnes Bø‘s ski speed declined slightly (on the highest possible level), yet he managed to set the best shooting percentage (92.1%) for a World Cup winner ever.

2019–20 z-Scores compared to 2018–19 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1JacquelinEmilienFRA
20-1.27-0.83-1.36-1.15-0.44
2StroliaVytautas LTU
14-0.68-0.050.30-0.38-0.44
3KuehnJohannesGER
21-1.510.02-0.17-0.90-0.28
4BjoentegaardErlendNOR
18-1.38-0.77-0.40-1.08-0.28
5SeppalaTeroFIN
17-0.980.15-0.55-0.60-0.26
6FourcadeMartinFRA
21-1.63-1.26-0.71-1.41-0.21
7PrymaArtemUKR
20-0.79-0.53-0.72-0.71-0.20
8Fillon MailletQuentinFRA
21-1.68-0.84-1.05-1.36-0.15
9IlievVladimirBUL
16-1.140.45-0.44-0.60-0.12
10EliseevMatveyRUS
20-0.63-0.68-0.85-0.67-0.11
11BoeTarjeiNOR
21-1.50-0.93-0.51-1.21-0.09
12BoeJohannes ThingnesNOR
17-1.89-1.30-1.01-1.62-0.08
13GuzikGrzegorzPOL
14-0.18-0.19-0.81-0.26-0.08
14KrcmarMichalCZE
20-0.84-0.44-0.59-0.69-0.08
15BormoliniThomasITA
15-0.59-0.62-0.47-0.59-0.06
16YaliotnauRamanBLR
14-0.920.240.18-0.46-0.05
17PidruchnyiDmytroUKR
19-0.83-0.50-1.35-0.80-0.05
18DollBenediktGER
21-1.42-0.26-1.04-1.04-0.03
19ClaudeFlorentBEL
17-0.58-0.730.78-0.46-0.02
20FakJakovSLO
20-0.77-1.00-1.04-0.87-0.02
21SamuelssonSebastianSWE
16-0.94-0.22-0.44-0.67-0.01
22ChristiansenVetle SjaastadNOR
21-1.18-0.70-0.69-0.98+0.03
23NelinJesperSWE
17-1.050.00-0.28-0.66+0.03
24LoginovAlexanderRUS
19-1.22-1.03-1.15-1.15+0.03
25LeitnerFelixAUT
19-1.00-0.370.16-0.68+0.04
26BauerKlemenSLO
15-0.59-0.10-1.46-0.55+0.04
27MoravecOndrejCZE
17-0.54-1.06-0.71-0.71+0.05
28DesthieuxSimonFRA
21-1.33-0.76-0.81-1.10+0.08
29EberhardJulianAUT
18-1.350.24-1.11-0.86+0.13
30GaranichevEvgeniyRUS
16-0.80-0.86-0.64-0.80+0.16
31GuigonnatAntoninFRA
15-0.96-0.52-0.72-0.80+0.17
32RastorgujevsAndrejsLAT
17-1.160.11-0.26-0.68+0.18
33PeifferArndGER
20-1.15-0.97-0.79-1.06+0.18
34WindischDominikITA
21-0.990.13-0.04-0.55+0.22
35DohertySeanUSA
14-0.49-0.33-0.61-0.46+0.25
36EderSimonAUT
15-0.67-0.86-1.12-0.78+0.28
37WegerBenjaminSUI
16-0.85-0.34-0.19-0.62+0.33
38HoferLukasITA
20-1.160.12-0.06-0.65+0.35

Women

Tang Jialin improved the most among regular starters, skiing an impressive 2.5% faster. Emma Lunder increased her hit rate from 74.3% to 82.1% and lowered her average Course Time rank by 7.4. Baiba Bendika improved virtually by the same amount, mostly thanks to skiing 1.7% faster. Not far behind was Tiril Eckhoff, who went on an incredible run of 6 wins in 8 races, in large parts thanks to a career-best hit rate (83.1%); her already high ski speed also increased slightly, however, she had been faster in 2015–16.

One of the pre-season favorites, Lisa Vittozzi, had a winter to forget: her overall shooting percentage fell by 7.6%, while her ski speed declined roughly to its 2017–18 level. Susan Dunklee proves that aggregate data isn’t everything, winning world championship silver in one of her worst seasons statistically. Dorothea Wierer claimed her second overall title, shooting minimally worse (-0.9%), but skiing faster than ever (career-best average Course Time rank: 10.0). Kaisa Mäkäräinen ended her long World Cup career (358 individual top-level races, 3rd all time) on a slight uptick; although her hit rate stayed below 80% for a second consecutive year, she managed to improve her ski speed in her final season.

2019–20 z-Scores compared to 2018–19 | Non-Team events

NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
NoFamily NameGiven NameNationRacesSki Speed
Score
Hit Rate
Score
Range Time
Score
Total
Performance
Score
Change
1TangJialinCHN
14-0.36-0.941.15-0.35-0.49
2LunderEmmaCAN
18-0.50-0.57-1.29-0.61-0.46
3BendikaBaibaLAT
17-0.77-0.52-0.88-0.71-0.45
4EckhoffTirilNOR
20-1.57-0.67-0.40-1.17-0.42
5BraisazJustineFRA
21-1.450.09-0.18-0.85-0.35
6FialkovaIvonaSVK
16-0.800.25-0.30-0.44-0.33
7SemerenkoValentinaUKR
16-0.70-0.65-0.77-0.69-0.30
8ZukKamilaPOL
15-1.060.480.38-0.44-0.28
9SanfilippoFedericaITA
15-0.69-0.420.03-0.52-0.26
10PreussFranziskaGER
17-0.95-1.17-1.40-1.07-0.25
11DavidovaMarketaCZE
20-1.22-0.370.33-0.79-0.23
12RoeiselandMarte OlsbuNOR
14-1.47-0.82-1.04-1.23-0.23
13Hojnisz-StaregaMonikaPOL
18-1.09-1.100.02-0.96-0.22
14TandrevoldIngrid LandmarkNOR
21-1.15-0.68-0.23-0.90-0.21
15AymonierCeliaFRA
15-1.42-0.080.59-0.79-0.21
16MakarainenKaisaFIN
21-1.56-0.240.42-0.94-0.20
17GasparinElisaSUI
15-0.46-0.47-0.58-0.47-0.18
18HerrmannDeniseGER
21-1.66-0.21-0.30-1.07-0.18
19Kristejn PuskarcikovaEvaCZE
16-0.48-0.64-0.67-0.55-0.18
20ZbylutKingaPOL
15-0.35-0.37-0.35-0.36-0.17
21SimonJuliaFRA
21-1.05-0.24-1.69-0.89-0.16
22HaeckiLenaSUI
18-1.040.49-1.49-0.65-0.15
23OebergHannaSWE
19-1.14-0.94-1.57-1.14-0.14
24Yurlova-PerchtEkaterinaRUS
19-0.82-0.74-1.01-0.82-0.13
25BescondAnaisFRA
20-1.03-0.55-0.34-0.81-0.11
26PerssonLinnSWE
18-0.89-0.91-0.13-0.81-0.10
27WiererDorotheaITA
21-1.24-0.73-1.43-1.11-0.09
28BrorssonMonaSWE
18-0.80-0.74-0.03-0.69-0.06
29HorchlerKarolinGER
14-0.41-1.01-0.59-0.61-0.06
30HauserLisa TheresaAUT
18-0.63-0.99-1.06-0.78-0.04
31FialkovaPaulinaSVK
19-1.01-0.62-0.39-0.83-0.02
32HinzVanessaGER
19-0.85-0.69-0.45-0.75+0.01
33EganClareUSA
14-0.79-0.640.09-0.64+0.01
34OjaReginaEST
15-0.06-0.29-0.79-0.21+0.02
35KryukoIrynaBLR
18-0.69-0.690.06-0.60+0.07
36DunkleeSusanUSA
14-0.720.20-0.61-0.44+0.14
37VittozziLisaITA
21-0.92-0.40-0.82-0.76+0.24

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real biathlon

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Posted in Statistical analysis | Tagged 2019–20 season, overall performance, shooting, skiing

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Time Behind Score: comparing fruit, rather than apples and oranges
Improvements season-to-season, putting it to use

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Recent Articles

  • Junior + U23 Development Index – Men
  • Junior + U23 Development Index – Women
  • The Path to GOAT Status
  • Most improved athletes this winter
  • New biathlon point system

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  • Long-term trends
  • Statistical analysis
  • Website updates

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