real biathlon – Page 20

Ski Speed over the last 14 years

Posted on 2015-12-28 | by

Here’s how the average ski speed of the World Cup top 40 evolved in the last 14 years. Keep in mind I can only approximate the speed through course times and course length; this is not a very precise method (minor mistakes should cancel each other out over the course of a season though). The top 40 athletes should be affected almost equally by possible methodical errors. Thus the speed values might be off by a few decimals, but the comparability season-to-season is still there.

The skiing speed of the men’s top 40 is getting (a lot) faster. Since 2001–02, both the median and the average speed of the top 40 increased by 1.7 km/h. The median skier in 2014–15 (25.8 km/h) was faster than the top skier in 2001–02 (25.1 km/h). All quartiles show a clear upwards trend. Percentage-wise, the ski speed of the median skier improved by about 7.1 %.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	25.1	25.3	24.9	25.3	25.2	25.6	26.1	25.7	25.9	25.7	25.9	26.4	26.6	26.2	+1.1
1st quartile	24.4	24.5	24.2	24.5	24.5	24.8	25.5	25.3	25.4	25.2	25.3	25.9	25.9	25.9	+1.5
Median	24.1	24.4	24.0	24.3	24.3	24.6	25.2	25.1	25.2	24.8	25.1	25.7	25.7	25.8	+1.7
3rd quartile	23.7	24.3	23.6	24.1	24.1	24.5	25.0	24.7	25.0	24.7	24.9	25.4	25.6	25.6	+1.9
Minimum	22.1	23.6	22.9	22.7	23.5	23.9	24.2	24.4	24.6	24.1	24.4	25.0	25.1	24.9	+2.7
Men	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	24.5	24.7	24.4	24.6	24.6	24.9	25.6	25.3	25.6	25.4	25.4	26.0	25.8	26.0	+1.5
Top 20 avg	24.3	24.5	24.3	24.5	24.5	24.8	25.4	25.2	25.4	25.2	25.3	25.9	25.8	25.9	+1.6
Top 40 avg	24.1	24.4	24.0	24.3	24.3	24.7	25.2	25.0	25.2	24.9	25.1	25.7	25.7	25.8	+1.7
Top 60 avg	23.7	24.3	23.9	24.1	24.2	24.5	25.1	24.8	25.1	24.7	25.0	25.5	25.6	25.6	+1.9

All values are average speed in km/h; Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The chart for the women looks distinctively different. The ski speed of the top 40’s median skier increased by 1.0 km/h since 2001–02 (+4.7%). During the first 5 years the speed actually declined. The fastest skier has been pretty stable (between 22.8 km/h and 23.1 km/h) for 6 years in a row (2007-2012), before hitting new all-time highs in the last two seasons.

The big ups and downs in the women’s chart could have reasons beyond pure ski form, e.g. changes in the women’s course difficulty year-to-year, or it could just be a statistical anomaly. I can’t fully explain the curve. It’s possible the courses have slowly been brought in line with the more difficult laps of the men during the first half of the last decade?

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	22.5	21.9	22.5	21.5	21.6	21.9	22.8	22.8	22.9	23.0	23.0	23.1	23.3	23.6	+1.1
1st quartile	21.9	21.2	21.3	21.0	20.9	21.1	21.9	22.3	22.3	22.2	22.1	22.3	22.6	22.8	+0.9
Median	21.3	21.0	21.0	20.6	20.6	20.8	21.5	21.9	22.1	21.9	21.8	21.9	22.4	22.3	+1.0
3rd quartile	21.0	20.7	20.7	20.4	20.4	20.7	21.3	21.5	21.8	21.3	21.5	21.8	22.2	22.1	-1.0
Minimum	20.2	20.2	19.8	19.2	19.8	19.9	20.8	20.8	20.8	20.8	21.0	21.0	22.0	21.7	-1.5
Women	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	22.0	21.3	21.6	21.1	21.0	21.3	22.1	22.5	22.4	22.4	22.4	22.6	22.8	23.0	+1.1
Top 20 avg	21.8	21.2	21.3	20.9	20.8	21.1	21.9	22.2	22.3	22.3	22.1	22.3	22.6	22.8	+1.0
Top 40 avg	21.4	21.0	21.0	20.6	20.6	20.9	21.6	21.9	22.0	21.8	21.8	22.0	22.4	22.4	+1.0
Top 60 avg	21.1	20.7	20.7	20.4	20.4	20.7	21.5	21.7	21.8	21.7	21.6	21.8	22.3	22.3	+1.2

All values are average speed in km/h; Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

Comparing skiing performances over longer periods is always tricky, certainly more difficult than comparing shooting results. The ski speed is not only affected by the courses (which is a major factor, since World Cup locations change every year), but also by weather. Three or four races during heavy snow fall for example will have a huge impact on the season average.
The increase of ski speed in just 14 years – 4.7% for the women, 7.1% for the men – is substantial. However, a good part of that probably comes down to technology: better working conditions due to waxing trucks, but also general advancements of ski manufacturers and modern waxes will have played its part. The top woman today (23.6 km/h) is just as fast or faster than the slowest male skier before 2006–07 (on easier courses though).

Shooting Time over the last 14 years

Posted on 2015-12-27 | by

real biathlon | Leave a Comment

Here’s a closer look at Biathlon World Cup shooting times over the course of the last 14 seasons. The shooting time in biathlon is the time between stepping on and off the shooting mat.

The men’s median shooter needed 32.0 s in 2001–02, 14 years later in 2014–15 only 28.3 s (-3.6 s). If you look at the top 40’s average, the shooting time improved a little less (-3.3 s). In percent, the top 40’s median shooting time improved by an incredible 11.6% in 14 seasons. Interestingly, most of the major improvements happened with the lower ranked athletes; the top 10 are only 1.8s quicker, but the top 40’s slowest shooter was 5.1s slower in 2001–02 compared to last season.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	39.5	37.9	36.7	37.4	38.1	33.9	34.1	34.1	33.3	33.7	32.4	32.5	31.9	34.4	-5.1
1st quartile	33.9	33.3	33.3	34.4	32.7	31.4	32.1	31.7	30.6	30.4	30.0	30.0	29.8	30.2	-3.7
Median	32.0	31.7	32.0	32.4	30.8	29.8	30.4	30.3	29.8	29.3	28.9	28.8	28.8	28.3	-3.6
3rd quartile	29.6	30.3	30.7	30.7	29.9	28.6	28.6	28.9	28.5	28.0	27.1	27.2	27.8	27.5	-2.1
Minimum	26.3	26.1	26.9	28.3	25.0	25.8	24.0	24.9	22.7	24.0	24.6	24.5	23.2	23.3	-3.0
	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	30.5	31.5	31.3	31.8	29.2	30.8	30.6	30.7	28.3	28.8	28.5	27.8	27.7	28.7	-1.8
Top 20 avg	30.9	31.5	31.6	32.2	30.3	30.0	29.9	30.3	28.9	28.9	28.5	28.2	28.4	28.1	-2.8
Top 40 avg	32.0	31.8	31.7	32.4	31.0	30.1	30.4	30.2	29.5	29.2	28.5	28.7	28.6	28.7	-3.3
Top 60 avg	32.4	32.2	32.3	33.0	31.5	30.8	30.5	30.7	30.1	29.7	29.2	29.3	28.8	29.1	-3.3

Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

On the women’s side, the shooting times improved across the board as well, although generally not by as much (median: -5.6%). The top 40’s median fell by 1.9 s (34.2 s → 32.3 s), the average by 2.7 s (34.8 s → 32.1 s). In 2014–15, the men’s median shooter was 4.0s faster than the women’s. Unlike the men, the women improved almost equally in all categories: the top 10 athletes are 2.4 s quicker, the top 60 athletes 2.9 s quicker than in 2001–02.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	40.5	41.4	44.0	41.6	38.9	38.6	39.8	42.7	38.8	39.2	39.5	38.8	34.9	38.0	-2.5
1st quartile	36.8	35.9	36.6	35.8	36.4	35.7	34.8	35.0	34.7	36.5	34.9	34.1	32.7	33.1	-3.6
Median	34.2	34.1	34.0	34.6	34.5	33.2	33.1	33.6	32.3	33.4	33.0	32.4	31.3	32.3	-1.9
3rd quartile	32.7	32.3	32.6	33.1	32.6	31.9	31.8	31.8	31.2	31.7	31.6	30.4	30.2	30.3	-2.4
Minimum	30.5	30.1	30.2	29.9	29.3	28.9	28.6	29.9	27.8	27.8	27.6	25.1	25.2	26.8	-3.7
	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	34.7	32.7	34.4	35.2	33.7	32.5	33.1	33.4	33.0	33.0	31.8	32.2	31.7	32.3	-2.4
Top 20 avg	34.2	33.4	34.4	34.2	33.5	33.1	33.4	33.5	32.5	33.0	32.3	32.3	31.3	32.3	-1.9
Top 40 avg	34.8	34.5	34.7	34.7	34.3	33.7	33.4	33.9	32.8	33.9	33.3	32.5	31.3	32.1	-2.7
Top 60 avg	35.3	35.4	35.1	35.8	34.5	33.9	34.2	34.1	33.2	33.9	33.4	33.0	31.8	32.4	-2.9

Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The gap between genders increased enormously in the last 14 years (for the top 40 from 2.2 s to 4.0 s). However, last season was somewhat of an outlier, the difference was a lot smaller in 2013–14. Ordinarily you wouldn’t expect such a huge gap, because physical strength is probably secondary for shooting pace. I’m not sure if the differences are mainly psychological (risk taking during shooting) or physiological (reaction time for example). The ski times are much closer on the men’s side, maybe gaining just a few second at the range is therefore considered more valuable in the men’s races?

Shooting percent over the last 14 years

Posted on 2015-12-25 | by

real biathlon | Leave a Comment

Two years ago I first looked at long-term trends in biathlon statistics, mainly to find out whether today’s athletes are better than previous generations, and how performance levels in the sport are developing in general. I now had another look at it, in order to see if anything had changed during the last two seasons (I haven’t included the currently ongoing season, because partial stats can be misleading). Here are the non-team shooting percentages over the last 14 seasons.
The stats are for the men’s and women’s overall World Cup top 40 (per season). I looked at their non-team percentages, split into quartiles. Quartiles divide the data into four equal groups (of 25 % each), i.e. the grey space between the 1st and 3rd quartile in the chart represents 50 % of the top 40 athletes. Unlike standard statistical methods, such as the average, the use of quartiles (like the median = 2nd quartile) is statistically a more robust method and more resistant to outliers.

In men’s World cup races, both the top 40’s median and the top 40’s average has improved by more than 3% since 2001–02. Last season was one of the best years shooting-wise, only the maximum (most accurate shooter) is clearly lower than in past years (in the first half of the last decade), but the median and 1st/3rd quartiles were at an all-time high in 2014–15, continuing the upward trend since the early 2000s. The worst shooter of the top 40 hits over 70% since 2009–10, before that the worst shooter always had a hit rate below 70%.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	91.1	92.3	92.7	92.0	92.4	92.1	88.9	89.3	90.0	90.9	88.9	90.6	91.9	90.3	-0.8
1st quartile	85.2	85.9	84.7	86.1	85.8	87.0	84.9	85.7	86.0	86.1	86.3	87.3	87.3	87.6	+2.4
Median	81.9	83.2	83.3	82.6	83.7	83.1	81.8	83.0	83.7	84.6	83.8	85.2	85.3	85.8	+3.8
3rd quartile	79.0	80.1	78.7	77.7	78.8	77.2	79.6	79.3	81.0	80.8	81.7	83.2	82.9	83.2	+4.2
Minimum	69.2	68.1	66.5	67.1	69.4	66.9	68.6	63.0	71.9	75.3	72.8	72.8	75.8	74.5	+5.3
	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	84.2	82.7	82.0	87.7	84.2	87.8	83.9	85.4	84.7	85.4	85.8	87.0	86.8	86.6	+2.4
Top 20 avg	83.5	84.3	82.2	84.5	84.4	85.8	83.8	83.6	83.6	84.7	84.6	86.5	85.7	86.2	+2.8
Top 40 avg	81.5	83.0	81.9	81.8	82.4	82.2	81.5	82.1	83.3	83.7	83.7	84.7	85.0	84.9	+3.4
Top 60 avg	81.0	81.5	80.3	81.1	82.2	82.2	81.2	81.5	81.9	82.6	82.5	84.1	84.3	83.9	+2.9

Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The women’s shooting results look very similar to the men’s. For the last 14 seasons they have been creeping higher, although not by quite as much. They improved by more than 2% (the mean is currently 2.3% higher, the average is 2.5% higher than 2001–02). For 2014–15, the men’s median shooter was slightly better than the women’s (85.8% vs. 84.7%), although there have been seasons where it was the other way around.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	88.9	92.4	89.0	90.3	93.3	91.5	91.8	92.6	91.0	89.0	94.3	95.1	91.1	92.6	+3.7
1st quartile	84.6	86.1	83.2	85.0	85.2	86.0	86.2	87.1	86.6	85.3	85.2	87.6	86.7	86.9	+2.3
Median	82.4	83.0	80.3	80.3	83.0	82.4	84.0	82.1	85.0	83.6	82.2	85.3	84.3	84.7	+2.3
3rd quartile	78.8	78.4	78.4	78.4	78.0	79.5	81.2	79.7	81.9	81.3	76.9	78.9	80.3	82.0	+3.2
Minimum	65.6	68.2	64.0	64.5	62.8	66.2	73.8	72.9	75.8	69.5	70.8	71.1	75.0	69.8	+4.2
	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	83.3	84.6	81.2	81.2	84.8	84.1	85.7	84.2	85.9	83.8	86.1	82.9	85.1	85.7	+2.4
Top 20 avg	81.3	84.3	81.3	82.6	83.7	83.9	84.4	84.4	85.7	82.8	84.4	83.3	85.3	84.8	+3.5
Top 40 avg	81.3	82.1	80.2	81.1	81.7	82.4	83.7	83.0	84.4	83.0	81.7	83.4	83.9	83.8	+2.5
Top 60 avg	80.4	80.7	79.4	79.8	81.1	81.4	82.1	81.9	83.6	81.8	81.3	81.7	82.8	82.7	+2.3

Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The shooting results in general continue to improve across the board. It’s impossible to say by how much exactly, results differ a lot depending on what group you look at or what method you use. To put a number on it, I’d say non-team shooting percentages are roughly 2-3% higher now than they were back in 2001–02. It’s unclear how much they can improve further before hitting a ceiling, because unlike ski speed, the hit rate has an absolute limit at 100%.

Who shoots better: Men or Women?

Posted on 2013-08-27 | by

real biathlon | Leave a Comment

According to my blog stats the question if men or women are the better shots has always been one of the top search keywords that point people to this site. I wrote a post about that a long time ago, but since it’s of high interest apparently I took a more detailed look at the gender differences in biathlon shooting.

Note: It’s difficult to make any definitive statements about shooting trends, because it all depends on what group of athletes you look at. There isn’t one single group which represents the strength of the whole field perfectly, so it will always be slightly imprecise.

2001
–02

2002
–03

2003
–04

2004
–05

2005
–06

2006
–07

2007
–08

2008
–09

2009
–10

2010
–11

2011
–12

2012
–13

Top 10

+3.0

-1.4

+2.9

+6.6

-0.3

+2.8

-2.2

+1.7

-1.6

+1.6

-0.8

+1.6

Top 20

+2.6

+1.0

+3.0

+2.2

+1.3

+1.9

+0.7

+0.4

-1.9

+2.0

-0.5

+1.2

Top 30

+1.2

-0.3

+2.7

+4.1

+1.2

+1.5

-1.0

-0.3

-1.5

+1.6

-0.2

+0.1

Top 40

-0.5

+0.3

+3.0

+2.3

+0.7

-2.2

+1.0

-1.3

+1.0

+1.6

-0.1

Top 60

-0.2

+0.8

-0.2

+1.6

+1.2

-1.3

+0.9

-2.0

+0.3

+1.0

+2.3

Top 100

+0.2

+1.9

-0.1

+0.5

+2.3

+0.6

-0.1

+0.6

-2.4

+0.2

-0.1

+2.2

Shooting percentage differences (in %) Men / Women per selected group, last 12 years
Positive values: men were more accurate; Negative values: women were more accurate

During the last 12 seasons, the differences in non-team shooting accuracy between men and women have been small. For two seasons (2007–08 and 2009–10) women were better, in 2004–05, 2006–07 and 2010–11 men are ahead across the board. For most of the other seasons there is no clear picture, although men’s shooting results lead more of the selected groups (and often with bigger margins).

Last year, the shooting percentages for men and women were virtually identical for the top 30 or top 40, however men were over 2 % more accurate in the broader groups (top 60 or top 100). Overall, you probably have to give men a slight edge (of maybe 1 %), even though women were clearly better from 2007–08 to 2009–10.

2001
–02

2002
–03

2003
–04

2004
–05

2005
–06

2006
–07

2007
–08

2008
–09

2009
–10

2010
–11

2011
–12

2012
–13

Top 10

+4.2

+1.4

+3.3

+2.4

+3.3

+1.7

+2.8

+3.1

+4.3

+3.4

+5.2

Top 20

+3.7

+1.5

+2.4

+1.7

+2.6

+3.2

+3.0

+3.2

+2.9

+3.3

+3.4

+3.5

Top 30

+2.3

+1.6

+2.3

+2.0

+3.5

+3.7

+3.2

+3.3

+2.5

+3.5

+3.8

+3.7

Top 40

+2.3

+2.0

+2.2

+3.7

+3.4

+2.7

+3.4

+2.5

+4.1

+4.2

+3.5

Top 60

+2.8

+2.9

+2.6

+3.3

+3.4

+3.1

+2.8

+3.8

+4.2

+3.7

Top 100

+2.8

+3.1

+3.0

+2.3

+2.6

+3.4

+2.7

+3.2

+3.4

+4.1

+3.9

+4.2

Male Shooting Time advantage (in sec) per selected group, last 12 years

In terms of shooting time, the gender differences are much more obvious. Men shoot considerably faster. In fact, men have increased the gap from about 3 to 4 seconds in the last 12 years.
Physical strength plays a small part in shooting (relative to their body weight the rifle (3.5 kg) is heavier for most women), but differences of 10 % and more in average shooting time are quite a lot. The large gap might partly be down to a different mental approach (risk taking/range strategy?).

If you combine shooting accuracy and shooting pace and look at the time lost at the shooting range, the gap between men and women becomes much bigger (about 20 s last season for sprints). However, at least half of that range time is spent on skis, so this comparison is unfair: women lose almost 2 seconds approaching and exiting the range and they ski the penalty loop about 3 seconds slower than men.

What’s the bottom line? Generally, men shoot better than women: they are not necessarily more accurate, but on average much quicker (in a sprint about 4*2 = 8 seconds only in “shooting time” last year).

World Cup point distribution

Posted on 2013-08-09 | by

real biathlon | Leave a Comment

Last season was quite unusual. Martin Fourcade and Tora Berger won the overall titles with record scores and record gaps to second place. How do the 2012–13 World Cup points compare to previous years and how has the point distribution developed since 2001–02?
Note: The World Cup points system was changed after 2007–08 (50, 46, 43, … → 60, 54, 48, …). Plus several minor changes in the number of dropped worst results.

The chart above shows how much of the possible World Cup points (last year: 1440p = 60p*24, 2 dropped scores) the season’s top 6 have won. Fourcade set a new record, claiming 1248 points (86.7 %), surpassing Raphael Poiree‘s previous mark, who had won 81.3 % of all possible points in 2003–04. Fourcade’s gap to second place was also unprecedented last year: 421 points, or 50.1 % more than Emil Hegle Svendsen.

Naturally, the 2008–09 season brought some big changes: with 10 more athletes awarded World Cup points, the share of points won by the men’s top 30 or top 40 decreased by roughly 10 % in one year. In general, the top athletes win slightly less points today than they did in 2001–02. The biggest differences in the share of won points occurred for the season’s top 10 (43.4 % → 32.3 %, -11.1 %) and top 20 (65.5 % →55.6 %, -9.9 %).

Tora Berger set a new record last season as well, winning 85.7 % of all points available. She beat Magdalena Neuner‘s record (84.4 %) from one year earlier. There are huge differences between the last two seasons though: 2011–12 was a hard fought battle between four (!) athletes who won at least 70 % of the max points, in 2012–13 second-placed Darya Domracheva only claimed 64 %.

The points for the top female athletes didn’t decline as much as for the men. In 2001–02 the top 10 won 44.4 % of all points, in 2012–13 it was 37.1 % (-7.3 %). The top women win a slightly bigger share of all World Cup points (3-5 %), indicating weaker competition from lower ranked athletes.

Generally, World Cup points are shared more broadly today compared to 12 years ago, which might point to more depth in World Cup fields. However, at least part of that is due to the changed points system. The 2012–13 season was extremely lopsided (for men and women alike); hopefully not the start of a trend but only a one-time anomaly.

Ski Speed over the last 14 years

Shooting Time over the last 14 years

Shooting percent over the last 14 years

Who shoots better: Men or Women?

World Cup point distribution

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