{"id":484,"date":"2020-11-21T14:08:02","date_gmt":"2020-11-21T12:08:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/?p=484"},"modified":"2020-12-04T06:22:39","modified_gmt":"2020-12-04T05:22:39","slug":"projection-for-the-season-opener","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/2020\/11\/21\/projection-for-the-season-opener\/","title":{"rendered":"Projection for the season opener"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The many statistics collected on this site allow to calculate a theoretical race time, solely based on performance data. I thought this might be an interesting exercise for the season opening 15\/20km individuals \u2013 plus it’s a simple reminder where we left off. These aren’t meant to be serious predictions, of course. The individual is arguably the most unpredictable discipline and produces the most surprises anyway. Not to mention a lot usually changes during the off-season, maybe even more so this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Note: Projected times are calculated based on ski speed, hit rates and range times in last season’s three individuals<\/a> (IN). Hit rates are rounded to the nearest full shot. The top 30 median Course Time at the 2015 Kontiolahti IN is used as reference (last IN held in Kontiolahti) and multiplied with last season’s IN ski speed in percent. The “Time Loss Shooting” column follows the idea of the Shooting Efficiency<\/a> score.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men 20 km Individual<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Johannes Thingnes B\u00f8<\/a> comes out on top, “winning” by a margin of over one minute, which probably isn’t surprising, especially since Martin Fourcade<\/a> is no longer there. However, he’s projected to win mostly due to his extremely high 93.3% hit rate (rounded to 19\/20 hits for this), not because of his ski speed, which wasn’t that remarkable in this event last winter. Quentin Fillon Maillet<\/a> and Tarjei B\u00f8<\/a> are second and third \u2013 both skied faster, but were less accurate at the shooting range in 2019\u201320 individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Race Projection based on 2019\u201320 IN statistics <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rank<\/th>Family Name<\/th>Given Name<\/th>Nation<\/th>Races<\/th>back from
Top30 median
(in %)<\/th>		Projected
Course Time<\/th>		Total
hit rate
(in %)<\/th>		Projected
Time Loss
Shooting<\/th>		Projected
Total
Race Time<\/th>		Behind<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Rank<\/th>Family Name<\/th>Given Name<\/th>Nation<\/th>Races<\/th>back from
Top30 median
(in %)<\/th>		Projected
Course Time<\/th>		Total
hit rate
(in %)<\/th>		Projected
Time Loss
Shooting<\/th>		Projected
Total
Race Time<\/th>		Behind<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
1<\/td>Boe<\/a><\/td>Johannes Thingnes<\/td>NOR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-1.71<\/td>43:23.8<\/td>95.00<\/td>4:30.4<\/td>47:54.2<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
2<\/td>Fillon Maillet<\/a><\/td>Quentin<\/td>FRA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-3.80<\/td>42:28.5<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:27.9<\/td>48:56.3<\/td>+1:02.1<\/td><\/tr>
3<\/td>Boe<\/a><\/td>Tarjei<\/td>NOR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-1.79<\/td>43:21.6<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:42.4<\/td>49:04.0<\/td>+1:09.8<\/td><\/tr>
4<\/td>Claude<\/a><\/td>Fabien<\/td>FRA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.88<\/td>43:45.6<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:31.9<\/td>49:17.5<\/td>+1:23.3<\/td><\/tr>
5<\/td>Jacquelin<\/a><\/td>Emilien<\/td>FRA
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>-0.15<\/td>44:05.1<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:27.3<\/td>49:32.4<\/td>+1:38.3<\/td><\/tr>
6<\/td>Doll<\/a><\/td>Benedikt<\/td>GER
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-1.59<\/td>43:26.8<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:24.2<\/td>49:51.0<\/td>+1:56.8<\/td><\/tr>
7<\/td>Eliseev<\/a><\/td>Matvey<\/td>RUS
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+1.05<\/td>44:36.8<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:20.4<\/td>49:57.3<\/td>+2:03.1<\/td><\/tr>
8<\/td>Weger<\/a><\/td>Benjamin<\/td>SUI
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+0.10<\/td>44:11.6<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:46.3<\/td>49:57.9<\/td>+2:03.7<\/td><\/tr>
9<\/td>Nawrath<\/a><\/td>Philipp<\/td>GER
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+0.79<\/td>44:29.9<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:37.4<\/td>50:07.3<\/td>+2:13.1<\/td><\/tr>
10<\/td>Pidruchnyi<\/a><\/td>Dmytro<\/td>UKR
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+1.28<\/td>44:42.9<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:24.5<\/td>50:07.4<\/td>+2:13.2<\/td><\/tr>
11<\/td>Loginov<\/a><\/td>Alexander<\/td>RUS
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.79<\/td>43:48.2<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:19.8<\/td>50:08.0<\/td>+2:13.8<\/td><\/tr>
12<\/td>Hofer<\/a><\/td>Lukas<\/td>ITA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-1.68<\/td>43:24.6<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:43.8<\/td>50:08.4<\/td>+2:14.2<\/td><\/tr>
13<\/td>Desthieux<\/a><\/td>Simon<\/td>FRA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.77<\/td>43:48.5<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:25.9<\/td>50:14.4<\/td>+2:20.2<\/td><\/tr>
14<\/td>Fak<\/a><\/td>Jakov<\/td>SLO
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+1.86<\/td>44:58.4<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:25.0<\/td>50:23.4<\/td>+2:29.2<\/td><\/tr>
15<\/td>Dale<\/a><\/td>Johannes<\/td>NOR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-1.00<\/td>43:42.6<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:47.1<\/td>50:29.7<\/td>+2:35.6<\/td><\/tr>
16<\/td>Eder<\/a><\/td>Simon<\/td>AUT
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+2.30<\/td>45:09.8<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:23.8<\/td>50:33.6<\/td>+2:39.4<\/td><\/tr>
17<\/td>Moravec<\/a><\/td>Ondrej<\/td>CZE
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+2.29<\/td>45:09.7<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:27.7<\/td>50:37.4<\/td>+2:43.2<\/td><\/tr>
18<\/td>Horn<\/a><\/td>Philipp<\/td>GER
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+0.13<\/td>44:12.4<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:30.5<\/td>50:42.9<\/td>+2:48.7<\/td><\/tr>
19<\/td>Bjoentegaard<\/a><\/td>Erlend<\/td>NOR
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+0.01<\/td>44:09.3<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:38.2<\/td>50:47.5<\/td>+2:53.3<\/td><\/tr>
20<\/td>Samuelsson<\/a><\/td>Sebastian<\/td>SWE
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+2.48<\/td>45:14.6<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:38.5<\/td>50:53.2<\/td>+2:59.0<\/td><\/tr>
21<\/td>Garanichev<\/a><\/td>Evgeniy<\/td>RUS
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+1.24<\/td>44:42.0<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:29.4<\/td>51:11.3<\/td>+3:17.1<\/td><\/tr>
22<\/td>Pryma<\/a><\/td>Artem<\/td>UKR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+1.23<\/td>44:41.5<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:37.7<\/td>51:19.2<\/td>+3:25.0<\/td><\/tr>
23<\/td>Kuehn<\/a><\/td>Johannes<\/td>GER
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.99<\/td>43:42.8<\/td>80.00<\/td>7:43.0<\/td>51:25.8<\/td>+3:31.6<\/td><\/tr>
24<\/td>Nordgren<\/a><\/td>Leif<\/td>USA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+4.05<\/td>45:56.3<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:36.0<\/td>51:32.3<\/td>+3:38.1<\/td><\/tr>
25<\/td>Rastorgujevs<\/a><\/td>Andrejs<\/td>LAT
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.59<\/td>43:53.3<\/td>80.00<\/td>7:47.2<\/td>51:40.5<\/td>+3:46.3<\/td><\/tr>
26<\/td>Claude<\/a><\/td>Florent<\/td>BEL
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+3.51<\/td>45:42.0<\/td>90.00<\/td>6:04.8<\/td>51:46.8<\/td>+3:52.6<\/td><\/tr>
27<\/td>Eberhard<\/a><\/td>Julian<\/td>AUT
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+0.93<\/td>44:33.6<\/td>80.00<\/td>7:16.7<\/td>51:50.3<\/td>+3:56.1<\/td><\/tr>
28<\/td>Lesser<\/a><\/td>Erik<\/td>GER
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+5.18<\/td>46:26.2<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:24.5<\/td>51:50.8<\/td>+3:56.6<\/td><\/tr>
29<\/td>Latypov<\/a><\/td>Eduard<\/td>RUS
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+2.56<\/td>45:16.7<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:37.8<\/td>51:54.5<\/td>+4:00.3<\/td><\/tr>
30<\/td>Dombrovski<\/a><\/td>Karol<\/td>LTU
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+6.54<\/td>47:02.2<\/td>95.00<\/td>4:56.4<\/td>51:58.7<\/td>+4:04.5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Women 15 km Individual<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Olympic champion Hanna \u00d6berg<\/a> failed to win an individual last season, however, she still won the discipline World Cup title<\/a>; her as the projected winner is no surprise either. Marte Olsbu R\u00f8iseland<\/a> and Monika Hojnisz-Star\u0119ga<\/a> round out this theoretical podium. What’s maybe most noteworthy is the fact that eight athletes are inside a minute of the winning time (none for the men) \u2013 rather emblematic of the gender divide when it comes to competitiveness at the very top of the field in the last couple of seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Race Projection based on 2019\u201320 IN statistics<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rank<\/th>Family Name<\/th>Given Name<\/th>Nation<\/th>Races<\/th>back from
Top30 median
(in %)<\/th>		Projected
Course Time<\/th>		Total
hit rate
(in %)<\/th>		Projected
Time Loss
Shooting<\/th>		Projected
Total
Race Time<\/th>		Behind<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Rank<\/th>Family Name<\/th>Given Name<\/th>Nation<\/th>Races<\/th>back from
Top30 median
(in %)<\/th>		Projected
Course Time<\/th>		Total
hit rate
(in %)<\/th>		Projected
Time Loss
Shooting<\/th>		Projected
Total
Race Time<\/th>		Behind<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
1<\/td>Oeberg<\/a><\/td>Hanna<\/td>SWE
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.95<\/td>38:43.7<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:20.8<\/td>44:04.5<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
2<\/td>Roeiseland<\/a><\/td>Marte Olsbu<\/td>NOR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-2.64<\/td>38:04.2<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:31.6<\/td>44:35.8<\/td>+31.3<\/td><\/tr>
3<\/td>Hojnisz-Starega<\/a><\/td>Monika<\/td>POL
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.86<\/td>38:45.8<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:52.3<\/td>44:38.1<\/td>+33.6<\/td><\/tr>
4<\/td>Herrmann<\/a><\/td>Denise<\/td>GER
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-2.97<\/td>37:56.3<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:42.5<\/td>44:38.8<\/td>+34.3<\/td><\/tr>
5<\/td>Wierer<\/a><\/td>Dorothea<\/td>ITA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-1.60<\/td>38:28.4<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:22.0<\/td>44:50.4<\/td>+45.9<\/td><\/tr>
6<\/td>Kuklina<\/a><\/td>Larisa<\/td>RUS
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+1.47<\/td>39:40.4<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:17.3<\/td>44:57.7<\/td>+53.2<\/td><\/tr>
7<\/td>Preuss<\/a><\/td>Franziska<\/td>GER
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+1.30<\/td>39:36.5<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:21.5<\/td>44:57.9<\/td>+53.4<\/td><\/tr>
8<\/td>Braisaz<\/a><\/td>Justine<\/td>FRA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-2.82<\/td>37:59.9<\/td>85.00<\/td>7:00.0<\/td>44:59.9<\/td>+55.4<\/td><\/tr>
9<\/td>Hinz<\/a><\/td>Vanessa<\/td>GER
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+0.93<\/td>39:27.9<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:38.4<\/td>45:06.3<\/td>+1:01.7<\/td><\/tr>
10<\/td>Dzhima<\/a><\/td>Yuliia<\/td>UKR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+1.40<\/td>39:38.7<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:41.0<\/td>45:19.7<\/td>+1:15.2<\/td><\/tr>
11<\/td>Starykh<\/a><\/td>Irina<\/td>RUS
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+1.94<\/td>39:51.6<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:41.9<\/td>45:33.5<\/td>+1:29.0<\/td><\/tr>
12<\/td>Davidova<\/a><\/td>Marketa<\/td>CZE
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-1.34<\/td>38:34.5<\/td>85.00<\/td>7:07.2<\/td>45:41.8<\/td>+1:37.3<\/td><\/tr>
13<\/td>Brorsson<\/a><\/td>Mona<\/td>SWE
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+2.43<\/td>40:03.1<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:40.1<\/td>45:43.3<\/td>+1:38.8<\/td><\/tr>
14<\/td>Lunder<\/a><\/td>Emma<\/td>CAN
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+3.45<\/td>40:26.9<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:20.4<\/td>45:47.3<\/td>+1:42.8<\/td><\/tr>
15<\/td>Tandrevold<\/a><\/td>Ingrid Landmark<\/td>NOR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.18<\/td>39:01.8<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:54.1<\/td>45:55.9<\/td>+1:51.4<\/td><\/tr>
16<\/td>Vittozzi<\/a><\/td>Lisa<\/td>ITA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+0.78<\/td>39:24.3<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:39.3<\/td>46:03.6<\/td>+1:59.1<\/td><\/tr>
17<\/td>Eckhoff<\/a><\/td>Tiril<\/td>NOR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-2.01<\/td>38:18.8<\/td>80.00<\/td>7:52.7<\/td>46:11.5<\/td>+2:07.0<\/td><\/tr>
18<\/td>Simon<\/a><\/td>Julia<\/td>FRA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>-0.44<\/td>38:55.8<\/td>80.00<\/td>7:17.3<\/td>46:13.1<\/td>+2:08.6<\/td><\/tr>
19<\/td>Yurlova-Percht<\/a><\/td>Ekaterina<\/td>RUS
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+1.42<\/td>39:39.3<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:35.0<\/td>46:14.3<\/td>+2:09.8<\/td><\/tr>
20<\/td>Kristejn Puskarcikova<\/a><\/td>Eva<\/td>CZE
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+3.93<\/td>40:38.3<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:45.5<\/td>46:23.7<\/td>+2:19.2<\/td><\/tr>
21<\/td>Todorova<\/a><\/td>Milena<\/td>BUL
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+4.26<\/td>40:45.8<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:58.5<\/td>46:44.3<\/td>+2:39.8<\/td><\/tr>
22<\/td>Egan<\/a><\/td>Clare<\/td>USA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+1.94<\/td>39:51.4<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:56.9<\/td>46:48.3<\/td>+2:43.8<\/td><\/tr>
23<\/td>Hauser<\/a><\/td>Lisa Theresa<\/td>AUT
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+3.12<\/td>40:19.3<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:31.1<\/td>46:50.4<\/td>+2:45.8<\/td><\/tr>
24<\/td>Bescond<\/a><\/td>Anais<\/td>FRA
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+0.02<\/td>39:06.6<\/td>80.00<\/td>7:44.3<\/td>46:50.9<\/td>+2:46.4<\/td><\/tr>
25<\/td>Gasparin<\/a><\/td>Aita<\/td>SUI
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+3.08<\/td>40:18.3<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:33.5<\/td>46:51.8<\/td>+2:47.3<\/td><\/tr>
26<\/td>Fialkova<\/a><\/td>Paulina<\/td>SVK
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+0.01<\/td>39:06.2<\/td>80.00<\/td>7:46.4<\/td>46:52.6<\/td>+2:48.1<\/td><\/tr>
27<\/td>Merkushyna<\/a><\/td>Anastasiya<\/td>UKR
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+4.15<\/td>40:43.4<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:18.5<\/td>47:02.0<\/td>+2:57.5<\/td><\/tr>
28<\/td>Rieder<\/a><\/td>Christina<\/td>AUT
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+5.91<\/td>41:24.7<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:52.0<\/td>47:16.8<\/td>+3:12.3<\/td><\/tr>
29<\/td>Schwaiger<\/a><\/td>Julia<\/td>AUT
<\/div><\/td>
3<\/td>+4.09<\/td>40:41.8<\/td>85.00<\/td>6:37.9<\/td>47:19.7<\/td>+3:15.2<\/td><\/tr>
30<\/td>Zdouc<\/a><\/td>Dunja<\/td>AUT
<\/div><\/td>
2<\/td>+6.97<\/td>41:49.4<\/td>90.00<\/td>5:33.0<\/td>47:22.5<\/td>+3:17.9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The many statistics on this site allow to calculate a theoretical race time. I thought this might be an interesting exercise for the season opening individuals \u2013 plus it’s a simple reminder where we left of. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":875,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[21,20,6],"class_list":["post-484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-statistical-analysis","tag-2020-21-season-2","tag-projection","tag-results"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=484"}],"version-history":[{"count":106,"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/484\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":983,"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/484\/revisions\/983"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/875"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realbiathlon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}