tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059570136935866973.post2081493444741374192..comments2018-02-26T10:48:23.324+01:00Comments on real biathlon: Oslo Women's Mass Start analysisreal biathlonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13202020126087717207noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059570136935866973.post-59727563953633806812016-03-14T14:52:02.852+01:002016-03-14T14:52:02.852+01:00you are the best :-) thank youyou are the best :-) thank youAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059570136935866973.post-25557583749556606762016-03-14T12:52:31.302+01:002016-03-14T12:52:31.302+01:00If MDH wins 3 times, she will have 943 + 3*60 = 11...If MDH wins 3 times, she will have 943 + 3*60 = 1123 points for the season.<br /><br />Then GS needs enough points that she will throw out her current 30 and 32 low scores. So she will need 1124 - 977 = 146 points to tie. She would need 2nd(54) + 2nd(54) + 6th(38) to tie. And at that point MDH would have won 6 races to GS 4, so GS would probably lose the tiebreaker. So 2nd, 2nd, 5th or better for GS to win in this unlikely scenario.dashafanhttp://www.biathlonworld.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059570136935866973.post-71850930539072476352016-03-14T07:34:33.201+01:002016-03-14T07:34:33.201+01:00Great. Could you write if mdh will win 3x, which p...Great. Could you write if mdh will win 3x, which position need gs to win globe? Thank you. KarelUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06257772414411363893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059570136935866973.post-69515295338199771592016-03-13T23:17:15.131+01:002016-03-13T23:17:15.131+01:00No, the above does take into account throwing away...No, the above does take into account throwing away the two low scores.<br /><br />For Soukalova, think of it this way. Suppose she only scores in one of the last three races. Then she will throw away 0 and 0 and her final score will be 1039+score in best K-M race.<br /><br />In general, she will get the points from the best of her last three races, plus (2nd best remaining race-30) if positive, plus (3rd best remaining race-32) if positive.<br /><br />For Dorin Habert it is easier to work from 943, because if she throws away the points from one of the K-M races rather than the 12 and 15 she is currently throwing away then she is very unlikely to win the big globe. So Dorin Habert will end up with 943 + the sum of her three K-M races.dashafanhttp://www.biathlonworld.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059570136935866973.post-91900582004121812152016-03-13T21:51:07.232+01:002016-03-13T21:51:07.232+01:00Don't you miss the fact that their 2 lowest sc...Don't you miss the fact that their 2 lowest scores will be removed ?<br />Hence, Gabi would lose at most 62 pts (1039 => 977 pts as of today),<br />whereas Marie would "only" lose 27 pts (970 => 943 real pts)<br />This means the difference is not of 69 pts but 34 ! Amd Loadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08380468601641267126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059570136935866973.post-16576730325371160222016-03-13T18:47:06.132+01:002016-03-13T18:47:06.132+01:00Soukalova performed really well at the World Champ...Soukalova performed really well at the World Championships finishing with the 3rd most points among the women, as you'll hopefully tell us soon. No medals, overshadowed by Dorin Habert and Dahlmeier, but a very solid performance making it much harder for Dorin Habert to win the overall WC, but still a possibility.<br /><br />It's hard to believe that Soukalova won't finish at least 7th(36pts) in one of the three races. That would give her 1039+36 = 1075 points even if she finishes lower than 10th in the other races and adds nothing more to her score. Dorin Habert would need 1075-943 = 132 points in the three races, an average of 44 points per race. It's not impossible, but that is a very high level.<br /><br />Of course if Soukalova totally chokes and gets worse than 10th in every race she would remain at 1039 and Dorin Habert would only need 96 points in the three races, which is not trivial, but doable. This seems very unlikely.<br /><br />So Dorin Habert averaging 44pts/race doesn't put a lot of pressure on Soukalova, but it doesn't take a lot more than that for there to be significant pressure. If Dorin Habert averages 48pts/race she will have 943+3*48 = 1087 points. For Soukalova to get to 1087 she needs to add 48. This could happen: 1,x,x(60); 2,x,x(54); 3,x,x(48); 4,7,x(43+36-30=49); 5,6,x(40+38-30=48); 4,8,8(43+34+34-32-30=49); 5,7,8; 6,6,8; 6,7,7.<br /><br />We'll know a lot more after the next sprint.<br /><br />Soukalova can clinch the big globe in the sprint with GS=1st, MDH<=7th; GS=2nd, MDH<=11th; GS=3rd, MDH<=17th. I haven't worried about ties in any of this, and hopefully I haven't screwed it up.dashafanhttp://www.biathlonworld.comnoreply@blogger.com